ScoreProb
Oberliga - Westfalen Germany Westfalen - 14 2026

Hiltrup vs Arminia II

Hiltrup Home · Elo 1,426
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Arminia II Away · Elo 1,493
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Arminia II win
Hiltrup win
22.8%
Draw
22.6%
Arminia II winPick
54.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.7%
No43.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.9%
Under 2.539.1%

How much we know

Hiltrup history38 matches
Arminia II history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 18:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.6%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.

Why Arminia II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Arminia II are rated 67 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,493 against 1,426. On rating alone Arminia II would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Arminia II score more

    1.13 goals a game over 38 matches for Hiltrup, against 1.68 over 40 for Arminia II.

  • Arminia II concede fewer

    Hiltrup concede 1.87 a game, Arminia II 1.58.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Hiltrup matches, against 60% for Arminia II. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hiltrup
Arminia II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1426.1
ELO
1493.5
38
ELO · Matches
40
1426.1
Current Team ELO
1493.5
1493.5
Current Opponent ELO
1426.1
-67.36
Current ELO Difference
67.36
0.40
Expected score
0.60
38
History Matches
40
-0.10
Residual Mean
-0.01
43.33
Overperformance
49.38
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
0.20
Goals for per game
1.80
3.00
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.70
0.70
Goals for per game
1.90
2.30
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.58
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
2.15
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.09
Overall performance9 signals
90
38
Matches
40
1.03
PPG
1.40
26.3%
Win rate
37.5%
23.7%
Draw rate
27.5%
50.0%
Loss rate
35.0%
76.3%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
55.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
20
1.67
PPG
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
30.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
40.0%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
65.0%
38.9%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
18
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
1.68
63.2%
Scoring rate
77.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
67.5%
1.61
Goals for per game
1.60
83.3%
Scoring rate
70.0%
61.1%
BTTS rate
65.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
2.33
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
38
History Matches
40
1.13
Goals Mean
1.68
1.26
Goals Std
1.51
63.2%
Scored 1+ rate
77.5%
23.7%
Scored 2+ rate
42.5%
15.8%
Scored 3+ rate
27.5%
1.61
Venue Goals Mean
1.60
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.87
Goals against per game
1.58
81.6%
Conceding rate
85.0%
1.28
Goals against per game
1.75
72.2%
Conceding rate
90.0%
4.00
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
38
History Matches
40
1.87
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.62
Conceded Std
1.24
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
26.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.28
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
36.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
36.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
38
History Matches
40
0.95
Result entropy
0.99
2.20
Goal Difference Std
2.02
5.42
Stability score
0.76
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
38
Eligible Matches
40
9
Lead Matches
15
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
53.3%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.64
14
Trailing Matches
11
28.6%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
1.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
82.23
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
24
Normal Rest History Matches
23
0.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.22
13
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
1.33
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
100.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-4.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.01
1.15
Portability PPG Range
0.03
46.58
Portability Score
97.30
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
38
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-67.36
PPG-0.37
GF-0.54
GA0.29
PPG-1.33
PPG0.47
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate14.3%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate17.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.54
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.39
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std0.38
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Conceded 2+ rate10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate6.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.20
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score4.66
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.78
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate13.3%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate10.4%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.44
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.56
Portability PPG Range1.12
Portability Score-50.72
Rest days-1.81
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Current Team ELO-67.36
Current Opponent ELO67.36
Current ELO Difference-134.7
Expected score-0.19
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hiltrup

L
Hiltrup1–2Preußen Münster II25 Oct · home
Pick: Preußen Münster II 67% · hit
W
Westfalia Kinderhaus0–2Hiltrup18 Oct · away
Pick: Westfalia Kinderhaus 58% · missed
L
Gievenbeck3–0Hiltrup4 Oct · away
Pick: Gievenbeck 71% · hit
W
Hiltrup2–0Eintracht Rheine30 Aug · home
Pick: Eintracht Rheine 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Arminia II

W
Arminia II2–1Maaslingen25 Oct · home
Pick: Arminia II 46% · hit
W
Victoria Clarholz1–3Arminia II18 Oct · away
Pick: Arminia II 40% · hit
D
Westfalia Kinderhaus1–1Arminia II4 Oct · away
Pick: Westfalia Kinderhaus 42% · missed
L
Arminia II0–1Lippstadt 0830 Aug · home
Pick: Arminia II 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hiltrup and Arminia II meet in Oberliga - Westfalen on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 18:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Hiltrup win 22.8%, draw 22.6%, Arminia II win 54.6%. The pick is Arminia II win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.9%. Both teams to score: 56.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.