ScoreProb
Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein Germany Schleswig-Holstein - 16 2026

Holstein Kiel II vs SV Eichede

Holstein Kiel II Home · Elo 1,604
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
SV Eichede Away · Elo 1,528
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Holstein Kiel II win
Holstein Kiel II winPick
66.9%
Draw
18.1%
SV Eichede win
15.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.4%
No43.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.5%
Under 2.531.5%

How much we know

Holstein Kiel II history52 matches
SV Eichede history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.9%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Holstein Kiel II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Holstein Kiel II are rated 76 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,604 against 1,528. On rating alone Holstein Kiel II would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Holstein Kiel II score more

    2.29 goals a game over 52 matches for Holstein Kiel II, against 1.57 over 49 for SV Eichede.

  • Holstein Kiel II concede fewer

    Holstein Kiel II concede 1.17 a game, SV Eichede 1.31.

  • Holstein Kiel II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Holstein Kiel II matches, against 55% for SV Eichede. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Holstein Kiel II
SV Eichede
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1604.1
ELO
1528.2
52
ELO · Matches
49
1604.1
Current Team ELO
1528.2
1528.2
Current Opponent ELO
1604.1
75.91
Current ELO Difference
-75.91
0.61
Expected score
0.39
52
History Matches
49
0.11
Residual Mean
0.03
58.01
Overperformance
52.09
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.40
3.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
0.70
3.50
Goals for per game
0.90
0.80
Goals against per game
1.80
70.0%
Win rate
10.0%
3.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.66
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
49
1.77
PPG
1.59
51.9%
Win rate
42.9%
21.2%
Draw rate
30.6%
26.9%
Loss rate
26.5%
86.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.5%
63.5%
Over 2.5 rate
55.1%
44.2%
Over 3.5 rate
36.7%
2.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
24
1.69
PPG
1.67
48.3%
Win rate
45.8%
24.1%
Draw rate
29.2%
27.6%
Loss rate
25.0%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
58.6%
Over 2.5 rate
54.2%
41.4%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
29
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.29
Goals for per game
1.57
84.6%
Scoring rate
73.5%
51.9%
BTTS rate
51.0%
2.28
Goals for per game
1.71
86.2%
Scoring rate
79.2%
55.2%
BTTS rate
54.2%
3.20
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
52
History Matches
49
2.29
Goals Mean
1.57
1.83
Goals Std
1.26
84.6%
Scored 1+ rate
73.5%
55.8%
Scored 2+ rate
51.0%
42.3%
Scored 3+ rate
26.5%
2.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.71
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.17
Goals against per game
1.31
59.6%
Conceding rate
69.4%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.42
62.1%
Conceding rate
70.8%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
52
History Matches
49
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.31
1.31
Conceded Std
1.39
32.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.6%
13.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
49
0.93
Result entropy
0.98
2.47
Goal Difference Std
1.95
6.96
Stability score
1.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
48
26
Lead Matches
13
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.87
6
Trailing Matches
15
33.3%
Non-loss rate
53.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
1.16
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
1.06
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
27
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.71
21
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.49
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.40
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.60
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.58
1.32
Portability PPG Range
1.53
45.99
Portability Score
46.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO75.91
PPG0.18
GF0.72
GA-0.13
PPG1.60
PPG0.02
PPG1.60
PPG1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate9.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate8.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.72
Goals Std0.57
Scored 1+ rate11.1%
Scored 2+ rate4.7%
Scored 3+ rate15.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.64
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate9.8%
Conceded 2+ rate2.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.50
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.52
Stability score5.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.51
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate7.7%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.60
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.21
Portability Score-0.43
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.41
Current Team ELO75.91
Current Opponent ELO-75.91
Current ELO Difference151.8
Expected score0.22
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.45

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Holstein Kiel II

L
Holstein Kiel II3–5Kilia Kiel1 Nov · home
Pick: Holstein Kiel II 65% · missed
W
Holstein Kiel II5–0Rotenhof18 Oct · home
Pick: Holstein Kiel II 80% · hit
W
Nordmark Satrup1–3Holstein Kiel II29 Aug · away
Pick: Holstein Kiel II 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

SV Eichede

W
Rapid Lubeck2–5SV Eichede31 Oct · away
Pick: Rapid Lubeck 50% · missed
W
Lübeck II0–5SV Eichede18 Oct · away
Pick: SV Eichede 58% · hit
W
Rotenhof0–2SV Eichede29 Aug · away
Pick: Rotenhof 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Holstein Kiel II and SV Eichede meet in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Holstein Kiel II win 66.9%, draw 18.1%, SV Eichede win 15.0%. The pick is Holstein Kiel II win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.5%. Both teams to score: 56.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.