ScoreProb
U19 Bundesliga Germany Preliminary 2026

Holstein Kiel U19 vs Hansa Rostock U19

Holstein Kiel U19 Home · Elo 1,456
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hansa Rostock U19 Away · Elo 1,422
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Holstein Kiel U19 win
Holstein Kiel U19 winPick
42.1%
Draw
18.3%
Hansa Rostock U19 win
39.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes67.3%
No32.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.2%
Under 2.527.8%

How much we know

Holstein Kiel U19 history36 matches
Hansa Rostock U19 history41 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Holstein Kiel U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Holstein Kiel U19 are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,456 against 1,422. On rating alone Holstein Kiel U19 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Hansa Rostock U19 score more

    1.58 goals a game over 36 matches for Holstein Kiel U19, against 2.12 over 41 for Hansa Rostock U19.

  • Defences are close

    Holstein Kiel U19 concede 2.50 a game, Hansa Rostock U19 2.46.

  • Hansa Rostock U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    72% of Holstein Kiel U19 matches, against 80% for Hansa Rostock U19. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Holstein Kiel U19
Hansa Rostock U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1455.8
ELO
1421.7
36
ELO · Matches
41
1455.8
Current Team ELO
1421.7
1421.7
Current Opponent ELO
1455.8
34.07
Current ELO Difference
-34.07
0.55
Expected score
0.45
36
History Matches
41
-0.07
Residual Mean
-0.09
45.55
Overperformance
44.02
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
3.00
Goals against per game
3.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
0.60
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
2.80
Goals against per game
3.10
20.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.57
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
2.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.10
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
36
Matches
41
1.03
PPG
1.12
30.6%
Win rate
31.7%
11.1%
Draw rate
17.1%
58.3%
Loss rate
51.2%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
95.1%
72.2%
Over 2.5 rate
80.5%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
63.4%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
19
0.75
PPG
1.16
18.8%
Win rate
36.8%
18.8%
Draw rate
5.3%
62.5%
Loss rate
57.9%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
94.7%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
84.2%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
57.9%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.39
16
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.58
Goals for per game
2.12
72.2%
Scoring rate
82.9%
66.7%
BTTS rate
78.0%
1.25
Goals for per game
2.00
68.8%
Scoring rate
78.9%
68.8%
BTTS rate
73.7%
1.67
Goals for per game
2.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
36
History Matches
41
1.58
Goals Mean
2.12
1.36
Goals Std
1.81
72.2%
Scored 1+ rate
82.9%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
51.2%
22.2%
Scored 3+ rate
34.1%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.50
Goals against per game
2.46
94.4%
Conceding rate
95.1%
2.38
Goals against per game
2.32
100.0%
Conceding rate
94.7%
3.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
36
History Matches
41
2.50
Conceded Mean
2.46
1.64
Conceded Std
1.47
72.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
73.2%
41.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
43.9%
2.38
Venue Conceded Mean
2.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
5.6%
Clean-sheet rate
4.9%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.3%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
5.6%
Clean-sheet rate
4.9%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.3%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
5.6%
Clean-sheet rate
4.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
36
History Matches
41
0.84
Result entropy
0.92
2.17
Goal Difference Std
2.51
16.18
Stability score
8.19
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
36
Eligible Matches
39
8
Lead Matches
10
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.87
16
Trailing Matches
23
12.5%
Non-loss rate
30.4%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
8.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
36
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
1.03
1.08
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.38
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.15
1.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.13
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
13
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.23
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.28
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.81
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
0.67
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
66.7%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
0.67
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.95
Portability PPG Range
0.92
52.69
Portability Score
56.89
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
36
Clean History Matches
41
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO34.07
PPG-0.09
GF-0.54
GA0.04
PPG-0.33
PPG-0.41
PPG-0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Failed-to-score rate10.7%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate10.2%
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.54
Goals Std-0.45
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.36
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.11
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.35
Stability score8.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.30
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.33
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.04
Portability Score-4.20
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.19
Current Team ELO34.07
Current Opponent ELO-34.07
Current ELO Difference68.14
Expected score0.10
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Holstein Kiel U19

L
Hamburger SV U195–2Holstein Kiel U1931 Oct · away
Pick: Hamburger SV U19 65% · hit
L
Holstein Kiel U192–4Werder Bremen U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Werder Bremen U19 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hansa Rostock U19

L
Hansa Rostock U190–1Werder Bremen U191 Nov · home
Pick: Werder Bremen U19 48% · hit
W
Hansa Rostock U194–1BAK 07 U1917 Oct · home
Pick: BAK 07 U19 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Holstein Kiel U19 and Hansa Rostock U19 meet in U19 Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Holstein Kiel U19 win 42.1%, draw 18.3%, Hansa Rostock U19 win 39.7%. The pick is Holstein Kiel U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.2%. Both teams to score: 67.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.