ScoreProb
2. Bundesliga Germany Round 11 2026

Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld

Holstein Kiel Home · Elo 1,511
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Arminia Bielefeld Away · Elo 1,568
Holstein-Stadion, Kiel Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Arminia Bielefeld win
Holstein Kiel win
32.7%
Draw
23.3%
Arminia Bielefeld winPick
44.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.3%
No41.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.9%
Under 2.541.1%

How much we know

Holstein Kiel history67 matches
Arminia Bielefeld history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Arminia Bielefeld are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Arminia Bielefeld are rated 56 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,568 against 1,511. On rating alone Arminia Bielefeld would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Arminia Bielefeld score more

    1.37 goals a game over 67 matches for Holstein Kiel, against 1.99 over 69 for Arminia Bielefeld.

  • Arminia Bielefeld concede fewer

    Holstein Kiel concede 1.52 a game, Arminia Bielefeld 1.23.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Holstein Kiel matches, against 62% for Arminia Bielefeld. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Holstein Kiel
Arminia Bielefeld
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1511.3
ELO
1567.5
67
ELO · Matches
69
1511.3
Current Team ELO
1567.5
1567.5
Current Opponent ELO
1511.3
-56.21
Current ELO Difference
56.21
0.42
Expected score
0.58
67
History Matches
69
0.00
Residual Mean
0.05
49.98
Overperformance
54.00
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.70
Goals for per game
3.70
1.90
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.70
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.97
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
69
1.25
PPG
1.68
32.8%
Win rate
49.3%
26.9%
Draw rate
20.3%
40.3%
Loss rate
30.4%
83.6%
Over 1.5 rate
84.1%
58.2%
Over 2.5 rate
62.3%
32.8%
Over 3.5 rate
36.2%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
33
1.17
PPG
1.45
30.0%
Win rate
42.4%
26.7%
Draw rate
18.2%
43.3%
Loss rate
39.4%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
63.3%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.52
30
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
1.99
82.1%
Scoring rate
87.0%
61.2%
BTTS rate
59.4%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.94
80.0%
Scoring rate
81.8%
63.3%
BTTS rate
48.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
67
History Matches
69
1.37
Goals Mean
1.99
1.02
Goals Std
1.73
82.1%
Scored 1+ rate
87.0%
37.3%
Scored 2+ rate
52.2%
13.4%
Scored 3+ rate
27.5%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.52
Goals against per game
1.23
74.6%
Conceding rate
71.0%
1.53
Goals against per game
1.27
80.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
67
History Matches
69
1.52
Conceded Mean
1.23
1.16
Conceded Std
1.08
50.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.2%
23.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.6%
1.53
Venue Conceded Mean
1.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
69
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
1.60
Goal Difference Std
2.18
1.24
Stability score
5.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
68
22
Lead Matches
27
68.2%
Lead Win Rate
81.5%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.85
22
Trailing Matches
18
22.7%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.12
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.83
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
41
0.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.66
27
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.64
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
7
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.50
1.47
Portability PPG Range
1.52
49.90
Portability Score
50.03
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-56.21
PPG-0.43
GF-0.61
GA0.29
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.29
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate4.9%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate1.8%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.61
Goals Std-0.71
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.96
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate12.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.10
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.58
Stability score-4.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.57
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range-0.05
Portability Score-0.13
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.03
Current Team ELO-56.21
Current Opponent ELO56.21
Current ELO Difference-112.4
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-4.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Holstein Kiel

L
SpVgg Greuther Fürth1–0Holstein Kiel1 Nov · away
Pick: Holstein Kiel 40% · missed
W
Holstein Kiel3–0Dynamo Dresden25 Oct · home
Pick: Holstein Kiel 48% · hit
D
Holstein Kiel0–0Hertha BSC16 Oct · home
Pick: Hertha BSC 41% · missed
L
1. FC Magdeburg2–0Holstein Kiel30 Aug · away
Pick: Holstein Kiel 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Arminia Bielefeld

W
Arminia Bielefeld3–1Eintracht Braunschweig30 Oct · home
Pick: Arminia Bielefeld 48% · hit
L
Hertha BSC1–0Arminia Bielefeld24 Oct · away
Pick: Hertha BSC 41% · hit
W
Arminia Bielefeld2–1VfL Osnabrück18 Oct · home
Pick: Arminia Bielefeld 56% · hit
L
1. FC Nürnberg4–1Arminia Bielefeld29 Aug · away
Pick: 1. FC Nürnberg 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Holstein Kiel and Arminia Bielefeld meet in 2. Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Holstein-Stadion, Kiel. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Holstein Kiel win 32.7%, draw 23.3%, Arminia Bielefeld win 44.1%. The pick is Arminia Bielefeld win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.9%. Both teams to score: 58.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.