ScoreProb
Premier League Wales Round 16 2026

Holywell vs Airbus UK

Holywell Home · Elo 1,544
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Airbus UK Away · Elo 1,656
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Airbus UK win
Holywell win
26.1%
Draw
18.1%
Airbus UK winPick
55.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.4%
No42.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.9%
Under 2.531.1%

How much we know

Holywell history47 matches
Airbus UK history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Airbus UK are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Airbus UK are rated 112 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,656 against 1,544. On rating alone Airbus UK would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Airbus UK score more

    2.09 goals a game over 47 matches for Holywell, against 2.69 over 48 for Airbus UK.

  • Airbus UK concede fewer

    Holywell concede 1.49 a game, Airbus UK 0.98.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    68% of Holywell matches, against 69% for Airbus UK. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Holywell
Airbus UK
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1544.3
ELO
1656.1
47
ELO · Matches
48
1544.3
Current Team ELO
1656.1
1656.1
Current Opponent ELO
1544.3
-111.8
Current ELO Difference
111.8
0.34
Expected score
0.66
47
History Matches
48
0.04
Residual Mean
0.15
52.80
Overperformance
60.67
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
3.40
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.10
1.80
Goals for per game
2.70
2.50
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.70
1.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.28
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.93
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.86
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
48
1.72
PPG
2.25
51.1%
Win rate
70.8%
19.1%
Draw rate
12.5%
29.8%
Loss rate
16.7%
85.1%
Over 1.5 rate
89.6%
68.1%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
44.7%
Over 3.5 rate
52.1%
2.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.78
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
26
2.05
PPG
2.23
63.6%
Win rate
73.1%
13.6%
Draw rate
3.8%
22.7%
Loss rate
23.1%
86.4%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
54.5%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.80
22
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.09
Goals for per game
2.69
85.1%
Scoring rate
87.5%
63.8%
BTTS rate
39.6%
2.68
Goals for per game
2.38
81.8%
Scoring rate
84.6%
59.1%
BTTS rate
42.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
47
History Matches
48
2.09
Goals Mean
2.69
1.78
Goals Std
1.85
85.1%
Scored 1+ rate
87.5%
53.2%
Scored 2+ rate
72.9%
29.8%
Scored 3+ rate
50.0%
2.68
Venue Goals Mean
2.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.49
Goals against per game
0.98
74.5%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.23
Goals against per game
1.31
72.7%
Conceding rate
57.7%
3.75
Goals against per game
0.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
47
History Matches
48
1.49
Conceded Mean
0.98
1.33
Conceded Std
1.48
40.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.8%
23.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.4%
1.23
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
14.9%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
14.9%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
48
0.93
Result entropy
0.73
2.27
Goal Difference Std
2.78
7.11
Stability score
26.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
48
18
Lead Matches
26
94.4%
Lead Win Rate
88.5%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.91
13
Trailing Matches
9
38.5%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
1.06
First Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
1.02
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.67
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.28
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.96
19
Long Rest History Matches
19
2.26
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.00
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-2.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.86
Portability PPG Std
0.45
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.00
36.83
Portability Score
52.65
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-111.8
PPG-0.53
GF-0.60
GA0.51
PPG-1.50
PPG-0.19
PPG-1.80
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate2.4%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate2.8%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.60
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.45
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.51
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Conceded 2+ rate19.6%
Conceded 3+ rate13.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.74
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.20
Goal Difference Std-0.52
Stability score-19.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate6.0%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate5.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.15
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.75
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.41
Portability PPG Range1.00
Portability Score-15.82
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Current Team ELO-111.8
Current Opponent ELO111.8
Current ELO Difference-223.7
Expected score-0.31
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-7.87
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Holywell

L
Flint Town United5–0Holywell30 Oct · away
Pick: Flint Town United 59% · hit
D
Llay Miners Welfare3–3Holywell17 Oct · away
Pick: Holywell 57% · missed
L
Airbus UK6–2Holywell31 Aug · away
Pick: Airbus UK 70% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Airbus UK

W
Airbus UK3–2Caernarfon Town30 Oct · home
Pick: Caernarfon Town 48% · missed
W
Cambrian & Clydach2–3Airbus UK23 Oct · away
Pick: Cambrian & Clydach 55% · missed
L
Airbus UK1–2The New Saints16 Oct · home
Pick: The New Saints 53% · hit
W
Airbus UK6–2Holywell31 Aug · home
Pick: Airbus UK 70% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Holywell and Airbus UK meet in Premier League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Holywell win 26.1%, draw 18.1%, Airbus UK win 55.8%. The pick is Airbus UK win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.9%. Both teams to score: 57.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.