ScoreProb
Premier League Wales Round 16 2026

Llandudno vs The New Saints

Llandudno Home · Elo 1,720
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
The New Saints Away · Elo 1,704
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: The New Saints win
Llandudno win
30.7%
Draw
28.2%
The New Saints winPick
41.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.3%
No46.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.4%
Under 2.539.6%

How much we know

Llandudno history55 matches
The New Saints history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why The New Saints are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,720 against 1,704. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Llandudno score more

    2.75 goals a game over 55 matches for Llandudno, against 2.29 over 68 for The New Saints.

  • The New Saints concede fewer

    Llandudno concede 1.00 a game, The New Saints 0.75.

  • Llandudno games more often go over 2.5 goals

    75% of Llandudno matches, against 59% for The New Saints. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Llandudno
The New Saints
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1719.6
ELO
1704.4
55
ELO · Matches
68
1719.6
Current Team ELO
1704.4
1704.4
Current Opponent ELO
1719.6
15.25
Current ELO Difference
-15.25
0.52
Expected score
0.48
55
History Matches
68
0.20
Residual Mean
0.14
64.67
Overperformance
61.19
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.60
3.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.70
PPG
1.70
2.90
Goals for per game
1.30
0.80
Goals against per game
0.70
90.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
68
2.51
PPG
2.26
81.8%
Win rate
72.1%
5.5%
Draw rate
10.3%
12.7%
Loss rate
17.6%
89.1%
Over 1.5 rate
79.4%
74.5%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
49.1%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
35
2.83
PPG
2.14
93.1%
Win rate
65.7%
3.4%
Draw rate
17.1%
3.4%
Loss rate
17.1%
93.1%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
72.4%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
51.7%
Over 3.5 rate
34.3%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
29
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.75
Goals for per game
2.29
96.4%
Scoring rate
83.8%
56.4%
BTTS rate
41.2%
3.14
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
82.9%
48.3%
BTTS rate
42.9%
2.75
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
55
History Matches
68
2.75
Goals Mean
2.29
1.68
Goals Std
1.77
96.4%
Scored 1+ rate
83.8%
76.4%
Scored 2+ rate
64.7%
45.5%
Scored 3+ rate
35.3%
3.14
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
0.75
58.2%
Conceding rate
52.9%
0.72
Goals against per game
0.71
48.3%
Conceding rate
54.3%
1.25
Goals against per game
0.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
55
History Matches
68
1.00
Conceded Mean
0.75
1.03
Conceded Std
0.85
30.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
17.6%
10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.4%
0.72
Venue Conceded Mean
0.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.8%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
3.6%
Failed-to-score rate
16.2%
51.7%
Clean-sheet rate
45.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
41.8%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
3.6%
Failed-to-score rate
16.2%
51.7%
Clean-sheet rate
45.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
41.8%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
68
0.53
Result entropy
0.71
2.03
Goal Difference Std
2.14
46.73
Stability score
29.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
68
31
Lead Matches
34
93.5%
Lead Win Rate
97.1%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.97
6
Trailing Matches
8
33.3%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
1.25
First Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.32
1.49
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.34
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
6
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.83
34
Normal Rest History Matches
39
2.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.59
17
Long Rest History Matches
22
2.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.77
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.25
PPG
2.50
75.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.25
Current Competition PPG
2.50
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
6
Competition Season Count
13
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.21
1.00
Portability PPG Range
0.60
58.10
Portability Score
70.07
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO15.25
PPG0.24
GF0.45
GA0.25
PPG-0.25
PPG0.68
PPG-0.20
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate6.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-13
Goals Mean0.45
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate12.5%
Scored 2+ rate11.7%
Scored 3+ rate10.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean0.25
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate6.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches-13
Result entropy-0.17
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score17.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate33.3%
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count-7
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.40
Portability Score-11.97
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.17
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.76
Current Team ELO15.25
Current Opponent ELO-15.25
Current ELO Difference30.49
Expected score0.04
History Matches-13
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance3.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Llandudno

L
Briton Ferry3–0Llandudno30 Oct · away
Pick: Llandudno 57% · missed
L
GAP Connah S Quay FC2–0Llandudno24 Oct · away
Pick: GAP Connah S Quay FC 51% · hit
W
Llanefydd0–1Llandudno17 Oct · away
Pick: Llandudno 57% · hit
L
Colwyn Bay2–0Llandudno31 Aug · away
Pick: Llandudno 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

The New Saints

D
The New Saints0–0GAP Connah S Quay FC31 Oct · home
Pick: The New Saints 53% · missed
W
The New Saints9–0Ammanford AFC23 Oct · home
Pick: The New Saints 76% · hit
W
Airbus UK1–2The New Saints16 Oct · away
Pick: The New Saints 53% · hit
W
Caernarfon Town2–3The New Saints31 Aug · away
Pick: The New Saints 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Llandudno and The New Saints meet in Premier League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Llandudno win 30.7%, draw 28.2%, The New Saints win 41.1%. The pick is The New Saints win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.4%. Both teams to score: 53.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.