ScoreProb
Toppserien Norway Round 22 2026

Hønefoss W vs LSK Kvinner W

Hønefoss W Home · Elo 1,417
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
LSK Kvinner W Away · Elo 1,521
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: LSK Kvinner W win
Hønefoss W win
19.7%
Draw
20.1%
LSK Kvinner W winPick
60.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.2%
No44.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.3%
Under 2.537.7%

How much we know

Hønefoss W history40 matches
LSK Kvinner W history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why LSK Kvinner W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • LSK Kvinner W are rated 103 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,521 against 1,417. On rating alone LSK Kvinner W would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • LSK Kvinner W score far more

    0.85 goals a game over 40 matches for Hønefoss W, against 1.74 over 34 for LSK Kvinner W.

  • LSK Kvinner W concede fewer

    Hønefoss W concede 2.10 a game, LSK Kvinner W 1.62.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Hønefoss W matches, against 62% for LSK Kvinner W. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hønefoss W
LSK Kvinner W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1417.4
ELO
1520.6
40
ELO · Matches
34
1417.4
Current Team ELO
1520.6
1520.6
Current Opponent ELO
1417.4
-103.1
Current ELO Difference
103.1
0.36
Expected score
0.64
40
History Matches
34
-0.10
Residual Mean
0.03
43.33
Overperformance
51.63
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
0.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
2.50
Goals against per game
1.10
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.99
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.61
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
34
0.85
PPG
1.47
22.5%
Win rate
44.1%
17.5%
Draw rate
14.7%
60.0%
Loss rate
41.2%
77.5%
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
55.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.8%
32.5%
Over 3.5 rate
44.1%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
18
1.10
PPG
1.50
35.0%
Win rate
44.4%
5.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
60.0%
Loss rate
38.9%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
65.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
35.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
20
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.85
Goals for per game
1.74
52.5%
Scoring rate
76.5%
45.0%
BTTS rate
52.9%
1.10
Goals for per game
1.67
60.0%
Scoring rate
72.2%
45.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.85
Goals for per game
1.57
53.8%
Scoring rate
57.1%
46.2%
BTTS rate
28.6%
40
History Matches
34
0.85
Goals Mean
1.74
0.94
Goals Std
1.61
52.5%
Scored 1+ rate
76.5%
27.5%
Scored 2+ rate
38.2%
5.0%
Scored 3+ rate
32.4%
1.10
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.10
Goals against per game
1.62
85.0%
Conceding rate
73.5%
1.80
Goals against per game
1.56
85.0%
Conceding rate
72.2%
2.15
Goals against per game
1.14
84.6%
Conceding rate
57.1%
40
History Matches
34
2.10
Conceded Mean
1.62
1.83
Conceded Std
1.37
55.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.9%
32.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.6%
1.80
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
47.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
46.2%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
47.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
34
0.86
Result entropy
0.92
2.22
Goal Difference Std
2.47
13.79
Stability score
8.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
34
5
Lead Matches
10
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.80
21
Trailing Matches
11
9.5%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.98
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
1.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.83
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
15
Normal Rest History Matches
15
0.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
21
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
13
Matches
7
0.62
PPG
1.43
15.4%
Win rate
42.9%
15.4%
Draw rate
14.3%
69.2%
Loss rate
42.9%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.61
13
Current Competition Matches
7
0.62
Current Competition PPG
1.43
-1.31
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.43
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.03
0.35
Portability PPG Range
0.05
74.21
Portability Score
94.97
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-103.1
PPG-0.62
GF-0.89
GA0.48
PPG-0.81
PPG-0.40
PPG0.00
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate24.0%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate12.2%
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.89
Goals Std-0.68
Scored 1+ rate-0.24
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.27
Venue Goals Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.24
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.48
Conceded Std0.46
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate2.1%
Conceded 3+ rate11.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.46
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.25
Stability score5.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.76
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate0.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches6
Current Competition PPG-0.81
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.74
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.29
Portability Score-20.77
Rest days2.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.61
Current Team ELO-103.1
Current Opponent ELO103.1
Current ELO Difference-206.3
Expected score-0.29
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-8.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hønefoss W

W
Haugesund W0–1Hønefoss W31 Oct · away
Pick: Haugesund W 52% · missed
L
Hønefoss W0–2Rosenborg W24 Oct · home
Pick: Rosenborg W 69% · hit
W
Stabæk W0–1Hønefoss W17 Oct · away
Pick: Stabæk W 71% · missed
W
Hønefoss W3–0Bodø / Glimt W4 Oct · home
Pick: Hønefoss W 79% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

LSK Kvinner W

L
LSK Kvinner W1–4Brann W1 Nov · home
Pick: Brann W 76% · hit
L
Fortuna Ålesund W3–0LSK Kvinner W24 Oct · away
Pick: Fortuna Ålesund W 70% · hit
L
LSK Kvinner W0–3Vålerenga W17 Oct · home
Pick: Vålerenga W 54% · hit
L
Røa W2–1LSK Kvinner W4 Oct · away
Pick: LSK Kvinner W 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hønefoss W and LSK Kvinner W meet in Toppserien on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hønefoss W win 19.7%, draw 20.1%, LSK Kvinner W win 60.2%. The pick is LSK Kvinner W win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.3%. Both teams to score: 55.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.