ScoreProb
Toppserien Norway Round 22 2026

Lyn W vs Stabæk W

Lyn W Home · Elo 1,469
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stabæk W Away · Elo 1,517
Kringsja kunstgress, Oslo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lyn W win
Lyn W winPick
37.0%
Draw
26.2%
Stabæk W win
36.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.2%
No46.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.2%
Under 2.545.8%

How much we know

Lyn W history38 matches
Stabæk W history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Lyn W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Stabæk W are rated 48 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,517 against 1,469. On rating alone Stabæk W would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.34 goals a game over 38 matches for Lyn W, against 1.38 over 39 for Stabæk W.

  • Stabæk W concede fewer

    Lyn W concede 1.68 a game, Stabæk W 1.23.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Lyn W matches, against 49% for Stabæk W. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lyn W
Stabæk W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1469.1
ELO
1517.3
38
ELO · Matches
39
1469.1
Current Team ELO
1517.3
1517.3
Current Opponent ELO
1469.1
-48.21
Current ELO Difference
48.21
0.43
Expected score
0.57
38
History Matches
39
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
47.18
Overperformance
51.64
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.40
2.20
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.60
1.90
Goals for per game
2.10
1.20
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
2.74
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.02
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
3.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
38
Matches
39
1.05
PPG
1.49
26.3%
Win rate
43.6%
26.3%
Draw rate
17.9%
47.4%
Loss rate
38.5%
71.1%
Over 1.5 rate
71.8%
55.3%
Over 2.5 rate
48.7%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.6%
2.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.30
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
19
1.44
PPG
1.42
33.3%
Win rate
36.8%
44.4%
Draw rate
31.6%
22.2%
Loss rate
31.6%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.1%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
2.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
18
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.34
Goals for per game
1.38
60.5%
Scoring rate
66.7%
42.1%
BTTS rate
38.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.26
72.2%
Scoring rate
68.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
36.8%
1.82
Goals for per game
1.77
54.5%
Scoring rate
69.2%
18.2%
BTTS rate
53.8%
38
History Matches
39
1.34
Goals Mean
1.38
1.84
Goals Std
1.50
60.5%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
31.6%
Scored 2+ rate
38.5%
13.2%
Scored 3+ rate
15.4%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.68
Goals against per game
1.23
71.1%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.21
61.1%
Conceding rate
63.2%
1.09
Goals against per game
1.08
45.5%
Conceding rate
76.9%
38
History Matches
39
1.68
Conceded Mean
1.23
1.76
Conceded Std
1.33
47.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.2%
23.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.9%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
39.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
54.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
45.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
39.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
38
History Matches
39
0.96
Result entropy
0.94
2.77
Goal Difference Std
2.30
3.83
Stability score
5.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
38
Eligible Matches
39
7
Lead Matches
14
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
92.9%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.95
11
Trailing Matches
10
27.3%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
1.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.08
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
19
Normal Rest History Matches
17
0.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
18
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.28
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.37
Competition & season17 signals
170
11
Matches
13
1.36
PPG
1.38
36.4%
Win rate
38.5%
27.3%
Draw rate
23.1%
36.4%
Loss rate
38.5%
54.5%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
3.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
11
Current Competition Matches
13
1.36
Current Competition PPG
1.38
0.73
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.69
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.44
Portability PPG Range
0.15
69.56
Portability Score
86.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
38
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-48.21
PPG-0.43
GF-0.04
GA0.45
PPG-0.02
PPG0.02
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate6.1%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate2.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std0.34
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.74
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.71
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.45
Conceded Std0.43
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate19.2%
Conceded 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.71
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.47
Stability score-1.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.84
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate17.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-0.02
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.03
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.14
Portability PPG Range0.28
Portability Score-17.11
Rest days7.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Current Team ELO-48.21
Current Opponent ELO48.21
Current ELO Difference-96.42
Expected score-0.14
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lyn W

L
Vålerenga W3–0Lyn W2 Nov · away
Pick: Vålerenga W 70% · hit
W
Lyn W2–1Molde W24 Oct · home
Pick: Lyn W 50% · hit
W
Bodø / Glimt W1–4Lyn W16 Oct · away
Pick: Lyn W 81% · hit
W
Lyn W4–3Haugesund W4 Oct · home
Pick: Lyn W 57% · hit
W
Røa W1–3Lyn W31 Aug · away
Pick: Lyn W 42% · hit

Stabæk W

W
Stabæk W1–0Fortuna Ålesund W31 Oct · home
Pick: Fortuna Ålesund W 46% · missed
L
Røa W2–1Stabæk W24 Oct · away
Pick: Stabæk W 52% · missed
L
Stabæk W0–1Hønefoss W17 Oct · home
Pick: Stabæk W 71% · missed
W
Molde W0–3Stabæk W4 Oct · away
Pick: Molde W 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lyn W and Stabæk W meet in Toppserien on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Kringsja kunstgress, Oslo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Lyn W win 37.0%, draw 26.2%, Stabæk W win 36.8%. The pick is Lyn W win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.2%. Both teams to score: 53.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.