ScoreProb
4. liga - Divizie A Czechia Group A - 14 2026

Hořovicko vs Petřín Plzeň

Hořovicko Home · Elo 1,447
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Petřín Plzeň Away · Elo 1,412
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Petřín Plzeň win
Hořovicko win
35.9%
Draw
22.6%
Petřín Plzeň winPick
41.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.6%
No40.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.4%
Under 2.538.6%

How much we know

Hořovicko history49 matches
Petřín Plzeň history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Petřín Plzeň are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hořovicko are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,447 against 1,412. On rating alone Hořovicko would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.39 goals a game over 49 matches for Hořovicko, against 1.36 over 59 for Petřín Plzeň.

  • Hořovicko concede fewer

    Hořovicko concede 1.78 a game, Petřín Plzeň 2.17.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of Hořovicko matches, against 64% for Petřín Plzeň. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hořovicko
Petřín Plzeň
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1446.5
ELO
1412.1
49
ELO · Matches
59
1446.5
Current Team ELO
1412.1
1412.1
Current Opponent ELO
1446.5
34.38
Current ELO Difference
-34.38
0.55
Expected score
0.45
49
History Matches
59
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.07
46.13
Overperformance
44.95
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.50
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.90
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.64
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
59
1.08
PPG
0.95
30.6%
Win rate
27.1%
16.3%
Draw rate
13.6%
53.1%
Loss rate
59.3%
81.6%
Over 1.5 rate
79.7%
65.3%
Over 2.5 rate
64.4%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
52.5%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
28
0.96
PPG
0.43
25.0%
Win rate
10.7%
20.8%
Draw rate
10.7%
54.2%
Loss rate
78.6%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
67.9%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
24
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.39
Goals for per game
1.36
75.5%
Scoring rate
76.3%
61.2%
BTTS rate
59.3%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.18
70.8%
Scoring rate
67.9%
50.0%
BTTS rate
64.3%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
49
History Matches
59
1.39
Goals Mean
1.36
1.10
Goals Std
1.22
75.5%
Scored 1+ rate
76.3%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
35.6%
16.3%
Scored 3+ rate
15.3%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.78
Goals against per game
2.17
83.7%
Conceding rate
79.7%
1.67
Goals against per game
2.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
89.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
49
History Matches
59
1.78
Conceded Mean
2.17
1.18
Conceded Std
1.54
57.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.1%
28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
42.4%
1.67
Venue Conceded Mean
2.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.3%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.7%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
16.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.3%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.7%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
16.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
59
0.91
Result entropy
0.85
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.93
9.47
Stability score
14.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
58
11
Lead Matches
14
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.67
22
Trailing Matches
27
18.2%
Non-loss rate
7.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
3.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.88
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.03
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.12
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.92
Rest days
77.20
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
25
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
23
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
2.00
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
6
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.76
0.53
Portability PPG Range
2.00
66.79
Portability Score
39.54
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO34.38
PPG0.13
GF0.03
GA-0.39
PPG-0.67
PPG0.53
PPG-0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate0.8%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-10
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate7.3%
Scored 3+ rate1.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.52
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean-0.39
Conceded Std-0.36
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.53
History Matches-10
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score-5.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate17.5%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate10.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.52
Portability PPG Range-1.47
Portability Score27.25
Rest days-0.28
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.46
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Current Team ELO34.38
Current Opponent ELO-34.38
Current ELO Difference68.75
Expected score0.10
History Matches-10
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hořovicko

D
Slavoj Český Krumlov2–2Hořovicko24 Oct · away
Pick: Hořovicko 45% · missed
W
Hořovicko1–0Komárov17 Oct · home
Pick: Komárov 43% · missed
W
Milevsko0–1Hořovicko30 Aug · away
Pick: Hořovicko 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Petřín Plzeň

W
Petřín Plzeň4–0Slavoj Český Krumlov31 Oct · home
Pick: Petřín Plzeň 65% · hit
L
Komárov4–0Petřín Plzeň24 Oct · away
Pick: Komárov 41% · hit
W
Petřín Plzeň2–1Rokycany17 Oct · home
Pick: Petřín Plzeň 56% · hit
D
Táborsko II1–1Petřín Plzeň30 Aug · away
Pick: Táborsko II 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hořovicko and Petřín Plzeň meet in 4. liga - Divizie A on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hořovicko win 35.9%, draw 22.6%, Petřín Plzeň win 41.5%. The pick is Petřín Plzeň win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.4%. Both teams to score: 59.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.