ScoreProb
Major League Soccer United States Round 34 2026

Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City

Houston Dynamo Home · Elo 1,562
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
St. Louis City Away · Elo 1,523
Shell Energy Stadium, Houston Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Houston Dynamo win
Houston Dynamo winPick
50.3%
Draw
23.1%
St. Louis City win
26.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.1%
No42.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.5%
Under 2.544.5%

How much we know

Houston Dynamo history73 matches
St. Louis City history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 00:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Houston Dynamo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Houston Dynamo are rated 39 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,562 against 1,523. On rating alone Houston Dynamo would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.47 goals a game over 73 matches for Houston Dynamo, against 1.40 over 58 for St. Louis City.

  • Defences are close

    Houston Dynamo concede 1.56 a game, St. Louis City 1.53.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Houston Dynamo matches, against 60% for St. Louis City. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Houston Dynamo
St. Louis City
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1561.8
ELO
1523.1
73
ELO · Matches
58
1561.8
Current Team ELO
1523.1
1523.1
Current Opponent ELO
1561.8
38.69
Current ELO Difference
-38.69
0.56
Expected score
0.44
73
History Matches
58
0.05
Residual Mean
0.03
54.09
Overperformance
52.31
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.39
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.60
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
0.40
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
2.40
1.80
Goals for per game
2.10
0.70
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.63
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
58
1.38
PPG
1.28
37.0%
Win rate
34.5%
27.4%
Draw rate
24.1%
35.6%
Loss rate
41.4%
82.2%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
53.4%
Over 2.5 rate
60.3%
35.6%
Over 3.5 rate
37.9%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
26
1.55
PPG
1.04
45.0%
Win rate
30.8%
20.0%
Draw rate
11.5%
35.0%
Loss rate
57.7%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
52.5%
Over 2.5 rate
57.7%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
40
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.47
Goals for per game
1.40
84.9%
Scoring rate
74.1%
63.0%
BTTS rate
58.6%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.15
90.0%
Scoring rate
61.5%
60.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.45
Goals for per game
1.47
80.0%
Scoring rate
78.9%
40.0%
BTTS rate
63.2%
73
History Matches
58
1.47
Goals Mean
1.40
1.06
Goals Std
1.10
84.9%
Scored 1+ rate
74.1%
38.4%
Scored 2+ rate
44.8%
17.8%
Scored 3+ rate
19.0%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.56
Goals against per game
1.53
74.0%
Conceding rate
79.3%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.77
70.0%
Conceding rate
84.6%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.32
60.0%
Conceding rate
84.2%
73
History Matches
58
1.56
Conceded Mean
1.53
1.30
Conceded Std
1.16
49.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.8%
23.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.1%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
1.77
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
15.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
15.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
58
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.67
0.76
Stability score
2.12
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
57
22
Lead Matches
20
54.5%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.65
Lead Points Retention
0.88
22
Trailing Matches
16
27.3%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.98
Rest days
76.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
11
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.82
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.37
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
23
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
19
1.75
PPG
1.63
55.0%
Win rate
47.4%
10.0%
Draw rate
21.1%
35.0%
Loss rate
31.6%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
20
Current Competition Matches
19
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.63
0.15
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.16
7
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.81
Portability PPG Std
0.52
2.56
Portability PPG Range
1.44
38.09
Portability Score
49.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO38.69
PPG0.11
GF0.07
GA0.03
PPG0.12
PPG0.51
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate14.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches15
Goals Mean0.07
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate10.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches15
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Conceded 2+ rate4.5%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches15
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score-1.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.36
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.30
Lead Points Retention-0.23
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate8.5%
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.12
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.01
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.30
Portability PPG Range1.12
Portability Score-11.05
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches7
Short Rest Points Per Match0.82
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.13
Current Team ELO38.69
Current Opponent ELO-38.69
Current ELO Difference77.38
Expected score0.11
History Matches15
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Houston Dynamo

L
Portland Timbers3–1Houston Dynamo2 Nov · away
Pick: Houston Dynamo 38% · missed
W
Seattle Sounders0–1Houston Dynamo29 Oct · away
Pick: Houston Dynamo 43% · hit
D
Houston Dynamo0–0Minnesota United FC25 Oct · home
Pick: Houston Dynamo 51% · missed
D
Houston Dynamo2–2FC Dallas18 Oct · home
Pick: Houston Dynamo 52% · missed
D
San Diego3–3Houston Dynamo15 Oct · away
Pick: San Diego 42% · missed

St. Louis City

L
St. Louis City0–1San Diego31 Oct · home
Pick: St. Louis City 39% · missed
L
St. Louis City2–3Portland Timbers29 Oct · home
Pick: St. Louis City 47% · missed
L
Minnesota United FC3–2St. Louis City17 Oct · away
Pick: Minnesota United FC 42% · hit
D
St. Louis City0–0Vancouver Whitecaps15 Oct · home
Pick: Vancouver Whitecaps 52% · missed
D
St. Louis City3–3FC Dallas30 Aug · home
Pick: St. Louis City 46% · missed

About this match

Houston Dynamo and St. Louis City meet in Major League Soccer on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 00:00 UTC. The match is played at Shell Energy Stadium, Houston. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Houston Dynamo win 50.3%, draw 23.1%, St. Louis City win 26.6%. The pick is Houston Dynamo win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.5%. Both teams to score: 57.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.