ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Huddersfield vs Exeter City

Huddersfield Home · Elo 1,521
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Exeter City Away · Elo 1,471
Accu Stadium, Huddersfield Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Huddersfield win
Huddersfield winPick
41.1%
Draw
26.8%
Exeter City win
32.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.4%
No47.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.7%
Under 2.542.3%

How much we know

Huddersfield history87 matches
Exeter City history85 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Huddersfield are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Huddersfield are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,521 against 1,471. On rating alone Huddersfield would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Huddersfield score more

    1.44 goals a game over 87 matches for Huddersfield, against 1.21 over 85 for Exeter City.

  • Defences are close

    Huddersfield concede 1.43 a game, Exeter City 1.42.

  • Huddersfield games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Huddersfield matches, against 44% for Exeter City. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Huddersfield
Exeter City
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1521.2
ELO
1470.6
87
ELO · Matches
85
1521.2
Current Team ELO
1470.6
1470.6
Current Opponent ELO
1521.2
50.53
Current ELO Difference
-50.53
0.57
Expected score
0.43
87
History Matches
85
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.02
50.65
Overperformance
48.11
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.90
1.60
Goals for per game
1.10
1.60
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
87
Matches
85
1.28
PPG
1.21
34.5%
Win rate
31.8%
24.1%
Draw rate
25.9%
41.4%
Loss rate
42.4%
75.9%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
43.5%
34.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
46
1.56
PPG
1.00
41.5%
Win rate
26.1%
31.7%
Draw rate
21.7%
26.8%
Loss rate
52.2%
75.6%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
53.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.7%
34.1%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
41
History Matches
46
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.44
Goals for per game
1.21
78.2%
Scoring rate
65.9%
59.8%
BTTS rate
42.4%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.04
80.5%
Scoring rate
60.9%
56.1%
BTTS rate
43.5%
87
History Matches
85
1.44
Goals Mean
1.21
1.24
Goals Std
1.25
78.2%
Scored 1+ rate
65.9%
37.9%
Scored 2+ rate
31.8%
18.4%
Scored 3+ rate
15.3%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.43
Goals against per game
1.42
78.2%
Conceding rate
69.4%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.57
70.7%
Conceding rate
76.1%
87
History Matches
85
1.43
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.11
Conceded Std
1.59
40.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.6%
20.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.5%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
21.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.1%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
19.5%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
21.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.1%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
19.5%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
87
History Matches
85
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.72
Goal Difference Std
2.13
2.12
Stability score
1.88
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
87
Eligible Matches
85
27
Lead Matches
21
59.3%
Lead Win Rate
81.0%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.84
31
Trailing Matches
37
32.3%
Non-loss rate
24.3%
9.7%
Trailing Win Rate
2.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
87
Halftime Coverage Matches
85
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.83
63
Normal Rest History Matches
68
1.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.22
15
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.90
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
10
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.54
1.50
Portability PPG Range
1.50
49.02
Portability Score
48.24
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
87
Clean History Matches
85
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO50.53
PPG0.06
GF0.23
GA0.00
PPG0.56
PPG0.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate12.3%
Scored 2+ rate6.2%
Scored 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.66
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.08
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std-0.48
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate2.6%
Conceded 3+ rate4.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.38
History Matches2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.41
Stability score0.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.85
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate7.9%
Trailing Win Rate7.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range0.00
Portability Score0.78
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.18
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.10
Current Team ELO50.53
Current Opponent ELO-50.53
Current ELO Difference101.1
Expected score0.14
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Huddersfield

D
Huddersfield1–1Luton3 Nov · home
Pick: Huddersfield 53% · missed
W
Bradford0–3Huddersfield31 Oct · away
Pick: Bradford 50% · missed
W
Huddersfield2–1Wigan24 Oct · home
Pick: Huddersfield 56% · hit
W
Huddersfield4–1Peterborough20 Oct · home
Pick: Huddersfield 53% · hit
W
Plymouth0–2Huddersfield17 Oct · away
Pick: Plymouth 40% · missed

Exeter City

L
Salford City2–1Exeter City31 Oct · away
Pick: Salford City 39% · hit
W
Exeter City2–1Fleetwood Town24 Oct · home
Pick: Fleetwood Town 37% · missed
W
Exeter City2–0Crewe20 Oct · home
Pick: Crewe 39% · missed
D
Colchester0–0Exeter City17 Oct · away
Pick: Colchester 39% · missed
D
Exeter City1–1Barnet1 Sep · home
Pick: Barnet 50% · missed

About this match

Huddersfield and Exeter City meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Accu Stadium, Huddersfield. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Huddersfield win 41.1%, draw 26.8%, Exeter City win 32.1%. The pick is Huddersfield win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.7%. Both teams to score: 52.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.