Hwacheon KSPO W vs Gyeongju W
Match result probability Model pick: Hwacheon KSPO W win
Hwacheon KSPO W winPick
57.6%
Draw
22.7%
Gyeongju W win
19.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.8%
No49.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.5%
Under 2.547.5%
How much we know
Hwacheon KSPO W history50 matches
Gyeongju W history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Hwacheon KSPO W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 09:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 10:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,777 matches.
Why Hwacheon KSPO W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Hwacheon KSPO W are rated 108 Elo points higher
Elo 1,625 against 1,517. On rating alone Hwacheon KSPO W would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.
-
Hwacheon KSPO W score more
1.82 goals a game over 50 matches for Hwacheon KSPO W, against 1.61 over 49 for Gyeongju W.
-
Hwacheon KSPO W concede fewer
Hwacheon KSPO W concede 0.74 a game, Gyeongju W 1.33.
-
Gyeongju W games more often go over 2.5 goals
36% of Hwacheon KSPO W matches, against 55% for Gyeongju W. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gyeongju W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1624.8
ELO
1516.8
50
ELO · Matches
49
1624.8
Current Team ELO
1516.8
1516.8
Current Opponent ELO
1624.8
108.0
Current ELO Difference
-108.0
0.65
Expected score
0.35
50
History Matches
49
0.13
Residual Mean
0.02
59.16
Overperformance
51.60
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
2.40
0.20
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.90
0.40
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.76
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals 90
50
Matches
49
2.08
PPG
1.47
60.0%
Win rate
40.8%
28.0%
Draw rate
24.5%
12.0%
Loss rate
34.7%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.6%
36.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.1%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
32.7%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals 100
27
Matches
23
2.15
PPG
1.70
63.0%
Win rate
47.8%
25.9%
Draw rate
26.1%
11.1%
Loss rate
26.1%
81.5%
Over 1.5 rate
87.0%
37.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.9%
25.9%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
27
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.82
Goals for per game
1.61
82.0%
Scoring rate
69.4%
46.0%
BTTS rate
53.1%
1.96
Goals for per game
1.83
88.9%
Scoring rate
78.3%
55.6%
BTTS rate
65.2%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.52
75.0%
Scoring rate
61.9%
25.0%
BTTS rate
57.1%
50
History Matches
49
1.82
Goals Mean
1.61
1.45
Goals Std
1.55
82.0%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
56.0%
Scored 2+ rate
44.9%
24.0%
Scored 3+ rate
26.5%
1.96
Venue Goals Mean
1.83
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.74
Goals against per game
1.33
56.0%
Conceding rate
77.6%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.26
63.0%
Conceding rate
82.6%
0.45
Goals against per game
1.29
35.0%
Conceding rate
85.7%
50
History Matches
49
0.74
Conceded Mean
1.33
0.80
Conceded Std
0.98
14.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
4.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.2%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
18.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
65.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
18.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
50
History Matches
49
0.84
Result entropy
0.98
1.37
Goal Difference Std
1.93
16.50
Stability score
1.92
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
49
Eligible Matches
47
28
Lead Matches
14
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.90
7
Trailing Matches
12
57.1%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
1.06
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.00
Rest days
82.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
9
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.22
27
Normal Rest History Matches
29
2.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.34
13
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.20
Competition & season17 signals 170
20
Matches
21
2.05
PPG
1.38
60.0%
Win rate
38.1%
25.0%
Draw rate
23.8%
15.0%
Loss rate
38.1%
55.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.6%
15.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
20
Current Competition Matches
21
2.05
Current Competition PPG
1.38
0.95
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.24
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.05
Portability PPG Range
0.15
95.24
Portability Score
86.60
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
50
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO108.0
PPG0.61
GF0.21
GA-0.59
PPG0.67
PPG0.45
PPG0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate21.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate19.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.21
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate12.6%
Scored 2+ rate11.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.59
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate21.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.29
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std-0.56
Stability score14.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.25
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate32.1%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.71
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score8.64
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.78
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.80
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Current Team ELO108.0
Current Opponent ELO-108.0
Current ELO Difference215.9
Expected score0.30
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance7.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Hwacheon KSPO W
W
East Bengal W1–4Hwacheon KSPO W4 Nov · away
Pick: Hwacheon KSPO W 60% · hit L
Hwacheon KSPO W1–2April W1 Nov · home
Pick: Hwacheon KSPO W 55% · missed D
Hwacheon KSPO W1–1Gumi Sportstoto W15 Oct · home
Pick: Hwacheon KSPO W 66% · missed W
Gyeongju W1–2Hwacheon KSPO W7 Oct · away
Pick: Hwacheon KSPO W 49% · hit D
Changnyeong W1–1Hwacheon KSPO W29 Aug · away
Pick: Hwacheon KSPO W 80% · missed Gyeongju W
W
Suwon FMC W1–3Gyeongju W31 Oct · away
Pick: Suwon FMC W 65% · missed W
Gyeongju W4–0Seoul W28 Oct · home
Pick: Gyeongju W 48% · hit L
Gyeongju W1–2Hwacheon KSPO W7 Oct · home
Pick: Hwacheon KSPO W 49% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Hwacheon KSPO W and Gyeongju W meet in WK-League on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Hwacheon KSPO W win 57.6%, draw 22.7%, Gyeongju W win 19.7%. The pick is Hwacheon KSPO W win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.5%. Both teams to score: 50.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.