İnegölspor vs Kütahyaspor
Match result probability Model pick: İnegölspor win
İnegölspor winPick
38.2%
Draw
23.6%
Kütahyaspor win
38.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes60.1%
No39.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.564.3%
Under 2.535.7%
How much we know
İnegölspor history53 matches
Kütahyaspor history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours İnegölspor
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why İnegölspor are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Kütahyaspor are rated 101 Elo points higher
Elo 1,658 against 1,556. On rating alone Kütahyaspor would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
-
Kütahyaspor score more
1.72 goals a game over 53 matches for İnegölspor, against 2.16 over 49 for Kütahyaspor.
-
Kütahyaspor concede fewer
İnegölspor concede 1.42 a game, Kütahyaspor 1.06.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
62% of İnegölspor matches, against 67% for Kütahyaspor. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kütahyaspor@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1556.3
ELO
1657.6
53
ELO · Matches
49
1556.3
Current Team ELO
1657.6
1657.6
Current Opponent ELO
1556.3
-101.3
Current ELO Difference
101.3
0.36
Expected score
0.64
53
History Matches
49
0.05
Residual Mean
0.16
53.42
Overperformance
61.10
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.20
1.80
Goals for per game
2.30
1.30
Goals against per game
0.60
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.45
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.16
Overall performance9 signals 90
53
Matches
49
1.55
PPG
2.27
41.5%
Win rate
71.4%
30.2%
Draw rate
12.2%
28.3%
Loss rate
16.3%
84.9%
Over 1.5 rate
83.7%
62.3%
Over 2.5 rate
67.3%
41.5%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
25
1.80
PPG
2.08
48.0%
Win rate
64.0%
36.0%
Draw rate
16.0%
16.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
88.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
72.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
56.0%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
25
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.72
Goals for per game
2.16
86.8%
Scoring rate
91.8%
64.2%
BTTS rate
51.0%
1.96
Goals for per game
2.20
92.0%
Scoring rate
88.0%
68.0%
BTTS rate
48.0%
53
History Matches
49
1.72
Goals Mean
2.16
1.28
Goals Std
1.45
86.8%
Scored 1+ rate
91.8%
47.2%
Scored 2+ rate
65.3%
24.5%
Scored 3+ rate
34.7%
1.96
Venue Goals Mean
2.20
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.42
Goals against per game
1.06
71.7%
Conceding rate
59.2%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.28
72.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
53
History Matches
49
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.06
1.32
Conceded Std
1.20
41.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.5%
15.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.2%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.8%
13.2%
Failed-to-score rate
8.2%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.0%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.8%
13.2%
Failed-to-score rate
8.2%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.0%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
53
History Matches
49
0.99
Result entropy
0.72
2.02
Goal Difference Std
2.14
1.35
Stability score
27.78
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
53
Eligible Matches
49
21
Lead Matches
27
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.93
11
Trailing Matches
8
36.4%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.16
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
197.0
Rest days
203.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
37
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.06
15
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.83
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.64
0.38
Portability PPG Range
1.50
74.69
Portability Score
43.87
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
53
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-101.3
PPG-0.72
GF-0.45
GA0.35
PPG-0.28
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate5.0%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.45
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.20
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.35
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate15.0%
Conceded 3+ rate2.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.01
History Matches4
Result entropy0.26
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score-26.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.15
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.23
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate23.9%
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.47
Portability PPG Range-1.12
Portability Score30.82
Rest days-6.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.30
Current Team ELO-101.3
Current Opponent ELO101.3
Current ELO Difference-202.7
Expected score-0.28
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-7.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
İnegölspor
L
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor2–1İnegölspor1 Nov · away
Pick: Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 60% · hit L
İnegölspor1–4Sebat Gençlikspor28 Oct · home
Pick: İnegölspor 43% · missed D
İnegölspor1–1Adana 01 FK24 Oct · home
Pick: Adana 01 FK 40% · missed L
1461 Trabzon FK2–1İnegölspor17 Oct · away
Pick: İnegölspor 42% · missed L
Ankaragücü4–1İnegölspor4 Oct · away
Pick: Ankaragücü 46% · hit Kütahyaspor
W
Kütahyaspor3–1Karacabey Belediyespor1 Nov · home
Pick: Kütahyaspor 47% · hit W
Serik Spor0–2Kütahyaspor24 Oct · away
Pick: Kütahyaspor 49% · hit D
Kütahyaspor2–212 Bingölspor18 Oct · home
Pick: Kütahyaspor 61% · missed L
Kütahyaspor0–4Yeni Orduspor4 Oct · home
Pick: Yeni Orduspor 42% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
İnegölspor and Kütahyaspor meet in 2. Lig on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: İnegölspor win 38.2%, draw 23.6%, Kütahyaspor win 38.2%. The pick is İnegölspor win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.3%. Both teams to score: 60.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.