ScoreProb
Serie A Brazil Round 34 2026

Internacional vs Coritiba

Internacional Home · Elo 1,558
Full time
1–0
Half time 0–0
Wed 4 Nov · 00:30 UTC
Coritiba Away · Elo 1,592
Estádio Beira-Rio, Porto Alegre Referee: Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho, Brazil Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: Internacional win
Internacional winPick Result
49.0%
Draw
23.3%
Coritiba win
27.7%

How our picks did

Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.

3 of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickInternacional win · 49.0%
What happenedInternacional win · we gave it 49.0%
Hit
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickUnder · 51.5%
What happenedUnder · 1 goal
Hit
Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 51.0%
What happenedNo · 1–0
Hit

How surprising was it?

Result: Internacional win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.

49%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 2.0
on average
A pick at 49% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

Yellow cardVitinho
18'
30'
Yellow cardTiago Coser
57'
Yellow cardN. Fonseca
58'
SubstitutionJacy off · Rodrigo Moledo on
SubstitutionMatheus Bahia off · A. Bernabei on
67'
69'
SubstitutionPedro Rocha off · F. Bustos on
69'
SubstitutionN. Fonseca off · Vini Paulista on
69'
SubstitutionBreno Lopes off · J. Lavega on
Yellow cardThiago Maia
75'
SubstitutionThiago Maia off · Bruno Henrique on
76'
SubstitutionB. Aguirre off · Calebe on
76'
Yellow cardJoao Bezerra
82'
SubstitutionJ. Carbonero off · Joao Bezerra on
82'
SubstitutionBruno Gomes off · Ronaldo on
82'
84'
SubstitutionThiago Santos off · Richard on
90+3'
Yellow cardRodrigo Moledo
Penalty goalAlerrandro
90+5'
Red cardG. Maripan
90+6'
90+8'
Yellow cardBruno Melo

Lineups

Internacional 3-4-2-1 · Coritiba 4-2-3-1

Substitutes · Internacional

  • 26Alexandro Bernabei
  • 30Calebe Gonçalves
  • 8Bruno Henrique
  • 16Ronaldo
  • 49João Pedro Bezerra de Oliveira Lo
  • 43Henrique Menke
  • 3Guillermo Maripán
  • 41Victor Gabriel
  • 44João Victor Alves de Morais Francisco
  • 31Allex
  • 27Paulinho Paula
  • 17Niclas Eliasson

Substitutes · Coritiba

  • 4Rodrigo Moledo
  • 14Fabricio Bustos
  • 7Joaquín Lavega
  • 36Vini Paulista
  • 25Richard
  • 22Pedro Rangel
  • 3Maicon
  • 66Rodrigo Gelado
  • 50Vitor Gonçalves Tissi
  • 18Paulo Roberto
  • 17Brian Ocampo
  • 99Rodrigo Rodrigues

Match stats

Internacional left, Coritiba right

Possession 63% 37%
Expected goals (xG) 1.59 0.64
Shots 19 6
Shots on target 6 1
Corners 15 2
Fouls 14 18
Yellow cards 3 4
Red cards 1 0
Offsides 0 3
Saves 1 5
Pass accuracy 83% 66%

Both teams to score

Yes49.0%
No51.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.5%
Under 2.551.5%

How much we know

Internacional history76 matches
Coritiba history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Lineups publishedThis prediction does not use lineups.
  4. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 00:30 UTC
  5. Full time: 1–0All three of our picks hit
  6. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this result

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Internacional are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Coritiba are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,592 against 1,558. On rating alone Coritiba would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Internacional score more

    1.51 goals a game over 76 matches for Internacional, against 1.16 over 67 for Coritiba.

  • Coritiba concede fewer

    Internacional concede 1.26 a game, Coritiba 0.93.

  • Internacional games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Internacional matches, against 34% for Coritiba. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Internacional
Coritiba
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1558.3
ELO
1592.0
76
ELO · Matches
67
1558.3
Current Team ELO
1592.0
1592.0
Current Opponent ELO
1558.3
-33.64
Current ELO Difference
33.64
0.45
Expected score
0.55
76
History Matches
67
0.04
Residual Mean
0.06
53.19
Overperformance
54.63
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.40
0.70
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
1.40
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
76
Matches
67
1.49
PPG
1.66
40.8%
Win rate
44.8%
26.3%
Draw rate
31.3%
32.9%
Loss rate
23.9%
85.5%
Over 1.5 rate
59.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
34.3%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
36
1.79
PPG
1.58
51.3%
Win rate
44.4%
25.6%
Draw rate
25.0%
23.1%
Loss rate
30.6%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
58.3%
48.7%
Over 2.5 rate
36.1%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
13.9%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
39
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.51
Goals for per game
1.16
81.6%
Scoring rate
68.7%
57.9%
BTTS rate
37.3%
1.77
Goals for per game
1.08
87.2%
Scoring rate
69.4%
56.4%
BTTS rate
38.9%
1.11
Goals for per game
1.35
66.7%
Scoring rate
70.0%
55.6%
BTTS rate
50.0%
76
History Matches
67
1.51
Goals Mean
1.16
1.11
Goals Std
0.97
81.6%
Scored 1+ rate
68.7%
44.7%
Scored 2+ rate
40.3%
19.7%
Scored 3+ rate
6.0%
1.77
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.26
Goals against per game
0.93
72.4%
Conceding rate
53.7%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.03
64.1%
Conceding rate
61.1%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.40
77.8%
Conceding rate
75.0%
76
History Matches
67
1.26
Conceded Mean
0.93
1.13
Conceded Std
1.14
34.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.9%
14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.0%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.03
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
46.3%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
35.9%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
46.3%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
35.9%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
46.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
76
History Matches
67
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.76
Goal Difference Std
1.43
1.44
Stability score
3.02
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
76
Eligible Matches
67
25
Lead Matches
24
68.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.82
26
Trailing Matches
12
30.8%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.13
Rest days
72.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.42
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
39
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.66
24
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.64
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
20
1.00
PPG
1.45
22.2%
Win rate
40.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
44.4%
Loss rate
35.0%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
18
Current Competition Matches
20
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.45
-0.22
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.05
8
Competition Season Count
5
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.63
Portability PPG Std
0.25
1.67
Portability PPG Range
0.60
44.26
Portability Score
66.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
76
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-33.64
PPG-0.17
GF0.35
GA0.34
PPG-0.45
PPG0.21
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches9
Goals Mean0.35
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate12.9%
Scored 2+ rate4.4%
Scored 3+ rate13.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.53
History Matches9
Conceded Mean0.34
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate5.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.01
History Matches9
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.33
Stability score-1.59
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.52
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches14
Non-loss rate5.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-0.45
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.17
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.38
Portability PPG Range1.07
Portability Score-22.69
Rest days1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches9
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.92
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Current Team ELO-33.64
Current Opponent ELO33.64
Current ELO Difference-67.29
Expected score-0.10
History Matches9
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Internacional

L
Fluminense2–1Internacional28 Oct · away
Pick: Fluminense 50% · hit
W
Internacional3–0Botafogo24 Oct · home
Pick: Internacional 38% · hit
L
Mirassol2–0Internacional16 Oct · away
Pick: Mirassol 38% · hit
W
Internacional2–1Corinthians7 Oct · home
Pick: Internacional 37% · hit
L
Bahia3–2Internacional30 Aug · away
Pick: Bahia 51% · hit

Coritiba

L
Coritiba0–1Gremio26 Oct · home
Pick: Coritiba 42% · missed
L
Atletico-MG1–0Coritiba17 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico-MG 50% · hit
D
Coritiba1–1Botafogo12 Oct · home
Pick: Botafogo 36% · missed
W
Remo2–3Coritiba31 Aug · away
Pick: Remo 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Match report

Internacional and Coritiba finished 1–0 in Serie A on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Internacional win 49.0%, draw 23.3%, Coritiba win 27.7%. All three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.