ScoreProb
Championship Scotland Round 14 2026

Inverness CT vs Livingston

Inverness CT Home · Elo 1,652
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Livingston Away · Elo 1,509
Tulloch Caledonian Stadium, Inverness Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Livingston win
Inverness CT win
33.9%
Draw
18.9%
Livingston winPick
47.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%
No48.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.2%
Under 2.544.8%

How much we know

Inverness CT history80 matches
Livingston history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Livingston are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Inverness CT are rated 143 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,652 against 1,509. On rating alone Inverness CT would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Inverness CT score more

    1.89 goals a game over 80 matches for Inverness CT, against 1.54 over 76 for Livingston.

  • Inverness CT concede fewer

    Inverness CT concede 0.94 a game, Livingston 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Inverness CT matches, against 53% for Livingston. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Inverness CT
Livingston
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1652.3
ELO
1508.8
80
ELO · Matches
76
1652.3
Current Team ELO
1508.8
1508.8
Current Opponent ELO
1652.3
143.4
Current ELO Difference
-143.4
0.70
Expected score
0.30
80
History Matches
76
0.09
Residual Mean
0.01
56.80
Overperformance
50.67
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.42
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
2.40
1.40
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.30
1.20
Goals for per game
2.20
1.30
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.14
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
1.95
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.48
Overall performance9 signals
90
80
Matches
76
1.99
PPG
1.33
57.5%
Win rate
34.2%
26.3%
Draw rate
30.3%
16.3%
Loss rate
35.5%
73.8%
Over 1.5 rate
81.6%
46.3%
Over 2.5 rate
52.6%
32.5%
Over 3.5 rate
28.9%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
37
2.11
PPG
1.24
62.2%
Win rate
32.4%
24.3%
Draw rate
27.0%
13.5%
Loss rate
40.5%
73.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.4%
45.9%
Over 2.5 rate
54.1%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
24.3%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
37
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.89
Goals for per game
1.54
86.3%
Scoring rate
72.4%
48.8%
BTTS rate
48.7%
1.95
Goals for per game
1.32
86.5%
Scoring rate
62.2%
45.9%
BTTS rate
43.2%
0.33
Goals for per game
1.33
33.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
0.0%
80
History Matches
76
1.89
Goals Mean
1.54
1.64
Goals Std
1.48
86.3%
Scored 1+ rate
72.4%
46.3%
Scored 2+ rate
48.7%
27.5%
Scored 3+ rate
15.8%
1.95
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.94
Goals against per game
1.30
56.3%
Conceding rate
68.4%
0.73
Goals against per game
1.43
56.8%
Conceding rate
70.3%
0.33
Goals against per game
0.67
33.3%
Conceding rate
33.3%
80
History Matches
76
0.94
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.23
Conceded Std
1.24
17.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.5%
10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
0.73
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.8%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.8%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
80
History Matches
76
0.88
Result entropy
1.00
2.17
Goal Difference Std
2.11
12.20
Stability score
0.21
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
80
Eligible Matches
76
34
Lead Matches
27
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.83
14
Trailing Matches
28
57.1%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
3.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.89
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.85
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
6
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
66
Normal Rest History Matches
50
1.92
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.10
12
Long Rest History Matches
19
2.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
9
Competition Season Count
10
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.70
1.55
Portability PPG Range
2.45
51.36
Portability Score
41.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
80
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO143.4
PPG0.66
GF0.35
GA-0.37
PPG-1.00
PPG0.86
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate13.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.35
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate13.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate11.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.97
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.37
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.29
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score11.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.32
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate4.6%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-14
Non-loss rate28.6%
Trailing Win Rate10.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.90
Portability Score9.52
Rest days0.81
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match0.67
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.82
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.64
Current Team ELO143.4
Current Opponent ELO-143.4
Current ELO Difference286.8
Expected score0.39
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.48

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Inverness CT

W
Inverness CT1–0Montrose3 Nov · home
Pick: Inverness CT 56% · hit
L
Dunfermline5–1Inverness CT31 Oct · away
Pick: Inverness CT 40% · missed
W
Raith Rovers0–2Inverness CT24 Oct · away
Pick: Raith Rovers 44% · missed
W
Inverness CT2–0Arbroath17 Oct · home
Pick: Inverness CT 53% · hit
L
Queen's Park2–1Inverness CT13 Oct · away
Pick: Inverness CT 50% · missed

Livingston

W
Spartans0–2Livingston3 Nov · away
Pick: Spartans 47% · missed
W
Stenhousemuir0–3Livingston30 Oct · away
Pick: Stenhousemuir 49% · missed
W
Livingston1–0Arbroath24 Oct · home
Pick: Livingston 54% · hit
D
Dunfermline0–0Livingston17 Oct · away
Pick: Livingston 42% · missed
L
Arbroath1–0Livingston29 Aug · away
Pick: Livingston 41% · missed

About this match

Inverness CT and Livingston meet in Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Tulloch Caledonian Stadium, Inverness. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Inverness CT win 33.9%, draw 18.9%, Livingston win 47.2%. The pick is Livingston win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.2%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.