ScoreProb
Championship Scotland Round 14 2026

Morton vs Stenhousemuir

Morton Home · Elo 1,415
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stenhousemuir Away · Elo 1,630
Cappielow Park, Greenock Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stenhousemuir win
Morton win
17.9%
Draw
20.4%
Stenhousemuir winPick
61.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.4%
No55.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.8%
Under 2.549.2%

How much we know

Morton history68 matches
Stenhousemuir history80 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Stenhousemuir are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Stenhousemuir are rated 215 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,630 against 1,415. On rating alone Stenhousemuir would be expected to take 77% of the points on offer.

  • Stenhousemuir score more

    1.09 goals a game over 68 matches for Morton, against 1.53 over 80 for Stenhousemuir.

  • Stenhousemuir concede fewer

    Morton concede 1.54 a game, Stenhousemuir 0.91.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Morton matches, against 45% for Stenhousemuir. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Morton
Stenhousemuir
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1415.5
ELO
1630.2
68
ELO · Matches
80
1415.5
Current Team ELO
1630.2
1630.2
Current Opponent ELO
1415.5
-214.8
Current ELO Difference
214.8
0.23
Expected score
0.77
68
History Matches
80
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.08
45.47
Overperformance
56.68
-0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.80
0.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
0.20
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.20
PPG
1.90
0.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.70
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.08
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
80
1.06
PPG
1.83
25.0%
Win rate
51.3%
30.9%
Draw rate
28.8%
44.1%
Loss rate
20.0%
77.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.8%
51.5%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
27.5%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
38
1.26
PPG
1.68
31.4%
Win rate
47.4%
31.4%
Draw rate
26.3%
37.1%
Loss rate
26.3%
68.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
44.7%
11.4%
Over 3.5 rate
23.7%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
35
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.09
Goals for per game
1.53
64.7%
Scoring rate
77.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
43.8%
1.06
Goals for per game
1.34
60.0%
Scoring rate
73.7%
42.9%
BTTS rate
47.4%
0.33
Goals for per game
1.67
33.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
68
History Matches
80
1.09
Goals Mean
1.53
1.00
Goals Std
1.19
64.7%
Scored 1+ rate
77.5%
35.3%
Scored 2+ rate
48.8%
7.4%
Scored 3+ rate
17.5%
1.06
Venue Goals Mean
1.34
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.54
Goals against per game
0.91
77.9%
Conceding rate
56.3%
1.11
Goals against per game
1.13
71.4%
Conceding rate
68.4%
1.67
Goals against per game
0.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
68
History Matches
80
1.54
Conceded Mean
0.91
1.27
Conceded Std
1.05
44.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.5%
22.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.8%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
1.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.1%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.1%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
22.1%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
80
0.97
Result entropy
0.93
1.74
Goal Difference Std
1.74
2.56
Stability score
6.90
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
80
22
Lead Matches
34
59.1%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.88
20
Trailing Matches
15
30.0%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
80
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
56
Normal Rest History Matches
66
1.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.91
10
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
2.33
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
2.33
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.33
8
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.73
Portability PPG Std
0.54
1.80
Portability PPG Range
1.67
40.65
Portability Score
48.01
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
80
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-214.8
PPG-0.77
GF-0.44
GA0.63
PPG-2.33
PPG-0.43
PPG-1.80
PPG-1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate12.8%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate13.7%
History Matches-12
Goals Mean-0.44
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.62
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean0.63
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Conceded 2+ rate21.6%
Conceded 3+ rate13.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.44
History Matches-12
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score-4.33
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.13
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate3.3%
Trailing Win Rate5.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.34
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.13
Portability Score-7.36
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.87
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.03
Current Team ELO-214.8
Current Opponent ELO214.8
Current ELO Difference-429.5
Expected score-0.55
History Matches-12
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-11.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Morton

L
Morton0–1Kelty Hearts3 Nov · home
Pick: Kelty Hearts 41% · hit
W
Partick2–3Morton31 Oct · away
Pick: Partick 66% · missed
W
Morton2–0Queen's Park17 Oct · home
Pick: Morton 41% · hit
D
Ayr Utd1–1Morton29 Aug · away
Pick: Ayr Utd 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Stenhousemuir

W
Stenhousemuir4–1Berwick Rangers3 Nov · home
Pick: Stenhousemuir 71% · hit
L
Stenhousemuir0–3Livingston30 Oct · home
Pick: Stenhousemuir 49% · missed
L
Stenhousemuir0–1Dunfermline27 Oct · home
Pick: Stenhousemuir 57% · missed
L
Partick3–0Stenhousemuir24 Oct · away
Pick: Stenhousemuir 37% · missed
D
Stenhousemuir1–1Raith Rovers17 Oct · home
Pick: Stenhousemuir 49% · missed

About this match

Morton and Stenhousemuir meet in Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Cappielow Park, Greenock. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Morton win 17.9%, draw 20.4%, Stenhousemuir win 61.7%. The pick is Stenhousemuir win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.8%. Both teams to score: 44.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.