ScoreProb
Pernambucano - 1 Brazil Round 5 2027

Jaguaré vs Centro Limoeirense

Jaguaré Home · Elo 1,448
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Centro Limoeirense Away · Elo 1,502
Arena Pernambuco Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Jaguaré win
Jaguaré winPick
51.3%
Draw
24.4%
Centro Limoeirense win
24.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.4%
No49.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.4%
Under 2.544.6%

How much we know

Jaguaré history14 matches
Centro Limoeirense history8 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Jaguaré are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Centro Limoeirense are rated 54 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,502 against 1,448. On rating alone Centro Limoeirense would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Centro Limoeirense score more

    0.79 goals a game over 14 matches for Jaguaré, against 1.00 over 8 for Centro Limoeirense.

  • Defences are close

    Jaguaré concede 2.14 a game, Centro Limoeirense 2.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Jaguaré matches, against 63% for Centro Limoeirense. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 1 Feb 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jaguaré
Centro Limoeirense
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1448.0
ELO
1501.8
14
ELO · Matches
8
1448.0
Current Team ELO
1501.8
1501.8
Current Opponent ELO
1448.0
-53.77
Current ELO Difference
53.77
0.42
Expected score
0.58
14
History Matches
8
-0.20
Residual Mean
-0.01
41.83
Overperformance
49.65
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.20
0.40
Goals for per game
0.80
3.00
Goals against per game
2.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
8
0.90
PPG
1.38
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
2.20
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
37.5%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.71
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.66
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals
90
14
Matches
8
0.71
PPG
1.38
14.3%
Win rate
37.5%
28.6%
Draw rate
25.0%
57.1%
Loss rate
37.5%
92.9%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
6
Matches
5
1.17
PPG
0.80
33.3%
Win rate
20.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
20.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
6
History Matches
5
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.79
Goals for per game
1.00
64.3%
Scoring rate
75.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
62.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
66.7%
Scoring rate
60.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
14
History Matches
8
0.79
Goals Mean
1.00
0.67
Goals Std
0.71
64.3%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
14.3%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.14
Goals against per game
2.00
92.9%
Conceding rate
87.5%
1.83
Goals against per game
2.80
83.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
14
History Matches
8
2.14
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.46
Conceded Std
1.66
64.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
37.5%
1.83
Venue Conceded Mean
2.80
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
7.1%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
7.1%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
7.1%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
14
History Matches
8
0.87
Result entropy
0.99
1.91
Goal Difference Std
2.24
13.01
Stability score
1.49
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
14
Eligible Matches
6
4
Lead Matches
2
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.67
7
Trailing Matches
3
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
1.21
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
279.9
Rest days
378.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
7
Normal Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
2
Long Rest History Matches
2
0.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.79
Portability PPG Std
—
1.75
Portability PPG Range
—
38.87
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
14
Clean History Matches
8
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-53.77
PPG-0.66
GF-0.21
GA0.14
PPG0.37
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.48
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate10.7%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.04
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate26.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.97
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.32
Stability score11.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.04
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.74
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-98.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.75
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.50
Current Team ELO-53.77
Current Opponent ELO53.77
Current ELO Difference-107.5
Expected score-0.15
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.19
Overperformance-7.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Jaguaré

D
Serrano PE2–2Jaguaré1 Nov · away
Pick: Serrano PE 36% · missed
W
Jaguaré3–1Santa Fe PE28 Oct · home
Pick: Jaguaré 57% · hit
W
Aguia FC1–3Jaguaré24 Oct · away
Pick: Aguia FC 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Centro Limoeirense

W
Centro Limoeirense1–0Atlético PE31 Oct · home
Pick: Centro Limoeirense 55% · hit
D
Centro Limoeirense1–1Serrano PE28 Oct · home
Pick: Centro Limoeirense 55% · missed
D
Santa Fe PE1–1Centro Limoeirense24 Oct · away
Pick: Santa Fe PE 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Jaguaré and Centro Limoeirense meet in Pernambucano - 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at Arena Pernambuco. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Jaguaré win 51.3%, draw 24.4%, Centro Limoeirense win 24.3%. The pick is Jaguaré win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.4%. Both teams to score: 50.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.