ScoreProb
U19 Bundesliga Germany Preliminary 2026

Jahn Regensburg U19 vs SGV Freiberg Fussball U19

Jahn Regensburg U19 Home · Elo 1,400
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 Away · Elo 1,480
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Jahn Regensburg U19 win
Jahn Regensburg U19 winPick
62.7%
Draw
14.3%
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 win
23.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.8%
No36.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.6%
Under 2.527.4%

How much we know

Jahn Regensburg U19 history33 matches
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 history15 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Jahn Regensburg U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 are rated 81 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,480 against 1,400. On rating alone SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Jahn Regensburg U19 score more

    1.58 goals a game over 33 matches for Jahn Regensburg U19, against 1.33 over 15 for SGV Freiberg Fussball U19.

  • Defences are close

    Jahn Regensburg U19 concede 2.45 a game, SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 2.27.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    76% of Jahn Regensburg U19 matches, against 80% for SGV Freiberg Fussball U19. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jahn Regensburg U19
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1399.5
ELO
1480.1
33
ELO · Matches
15
1399.5
Current Team ELO
1480.1
1480.1
Current Opponent ELO
1399.5
-80.59
Current ELO Difference
80.59
0.39
Expected score
0.61
33
History Matches
15
-0.14
Residual Mean
-0.06
41.01
Overperformance
47.41
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
2.80
Goals against per game
3.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.30
1.20
Goals for per game
1.30
2.10
Goals against per game
2.50
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
2.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.91
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
33
Matches
15
0.67
PPG
1.20
18.2%
Win rate
33.3%
12.1%
Draw rate
20.0%
69.7%
Loss rate
46.7%
87.9%
Over 1.5 rate
93.3%
75.8%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
51.5%
Over 3.5 rate
53.3%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
7
0.94
PPG
0.71
29.4%
Win rate
14.3%
5.9%
Draw rate
28.6%
64.7%
Loss rate
57.1%
94.1%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
82.4%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
70.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
17
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.58
Goals for per game
1.33
78.8%
Scoring rate
66.7%
75.8%
BTTS rate
60.0%
2.12
Goals for per game
1.00
94.1%
Scoring rate
57.1%
88.2%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
33
History Matches
15
1.58
Goals Mean
1.33
1.23
Goals Std
1.07
78.8%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
48.5%
Scored 2+ rate
53.3%
21.2%
Scored 3+ rate
13.3%
2.12
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.45
Goals against per game
2.27
93.9%
Conceding rate
86.7%
2.71
Goals against per game
2.29
94.1%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.33
Goals against per game
3.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
33
History Matches
15
2.45
Conceded Mean
2.27
1.69
Conceded Std
1.73
69.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.3%
39.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
46.7%
2.71
Venue Conceded Mean
2.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
6.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
5.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
6.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
5.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
6.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
33
History Matches
15
0.74
Result entropy
0.95
1.89
Goal Difference Std
2.38
25.60
Stability score
4.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
33
Eligible Matches
15
11
Lead Matches
2
45.5%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.52
Lead Points Retention
1.00
13
Trailing Matches
9
0.0%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
15
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.97
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.40
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
1.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
5
Normal Rest History Matches
6
0.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
26
Long Rest History Matches
8
0.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.18
0.67
Portability PPG Range
0.36
64.45
Portability Score
73.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
33
Clean History Matches
15
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-80.59
PPG-0.53
GF0.24
GA0.19
PPG0.00
PPG0.23
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.37
History Matches18
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate12.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate7.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches18
Conceded Mean0.19
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean0.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.21
History Matches18
Result entropy-0.21
Goal Difference Std-0.49
Stability score20.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.62
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate-0.55
Lead Points Retention-0.48
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.62
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.30
Portability Score-8.89
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.93
Long Rest History Matches18
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Current Team ELO-80.59
Current Opponent ELO80.59
Current ELO Difference-161.2
Expected score-0.23
History Matches18
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-6.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Jahn Regensburg U19

W
Jahn Regensburg U192–0Ingolstadt U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Ingolstadt U19 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

SGV Freiberg Fussball U19

W
SGV Freiberg Fussball U193–21860 München U1931 Oct · home
Pick: 1860 München U19 52% · missed
L
Bayern München U198–1SGV Freiberg Fussball U1925 Oct · away
Pick: Bayern München U19 80% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Jahn Regensburg U19 and SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 meet in U19 Bundesliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Jahn Regensburg U19 win 62.7%, draw 14.3%, SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 win 23.0%. The pick is Jahn Regensburg U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.6%. Both teams to score: 63.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.