ScoreProb
U19 Bundesliga Germany Preliminary 2026

RW Oberhausen U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

RW Oberhausen U19 Home · Elo 1,476
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 Away · Elo 1,564
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 win
RW Oberhausen U19 win
23.1%
Draw
24.4%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 winPick
52.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.6%
No37.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.6%
Under 2.534.4%

How much we know

RW Oberhausen U19 history40 matches
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 history41 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 are rated 88 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,564 against 1,476. On rating alone Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 score more

    1.53 goals a game over 40 matches for RW Oberhausen U19, against 2.22 over 41 for Fortuna Düsseldorf U19.

  • Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 concede fewer

    RW Oberhausen U19 concede 1.95 a game, Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1.12.

  • RW Oberhausen U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of RW Oberhausen U19 matches, against 56% for Fortuna Düsseldorf U19. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
RW Oberhausen U19
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1475.8
ELO
1563.9
40
ELO · Matches
41
1475.8
Current Team ELO
1563.9
1563.9
Current Opponent ELO
1475.8
-88.04
Current ELO Difference
88.04
0.38
Expected score
0.62
40
History Matches
41
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.07
47.97
Overperformance
54.97
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.20
1.80
Goals for per game
5.80
3.00
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.70
1.60
Goals for per game
3.90
2.20
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.90
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
4.76
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
5.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
41
1.33
PPG
1.76
37.5%
Win rate
51.2%
20.0%
Draw rate
22.0%
42.5%
Loss rate
26.8%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
82.9%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.1%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.7%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
21
1.80
PPG
1.52
55.0%
Win rate
42.9%
15.0%
Draw rate
23.8%
30.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
65.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.8%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.86
20
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.53
Goals for per game
2.22
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.5%
72.5%
BTTS rate
58.5%
1.85
Goals for per game
2.19
85.0%
Scoring rate
76.2%
75.0%
BTTS rate
47.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
40
History Matches
41
1.53
Goals Mean
2.22
1.18
Goals Std
2.82
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
80.5%
45.0%
Scored 2+ rate
53.7%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
29.3%
1.85
Venue Goals Mean
2.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.95
Goals against per game
1.12
90.0%
Conceding rate
70.7%
1.65
Goals against per game
1.05
90.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
3.67
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
40
History Matches
41
1.95
Conceded Mean
1.12
1.43
Conceded Std
0.94
47.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.7%
32.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.8%
1.65
Venue Conceded Mean
1.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.5%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.5%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
41
0.96
Result entropy
0.94
1.97
Goal Difference Std
3.05
4.12
Stability score
6.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
40
14
Lead Matches
16
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.81
15
Trailing Matches
13
26.7%
Non-loss rate
46.2%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.90
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.50
1.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.13
Rest days
77.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
16
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
23
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
1.67
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.67
-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
3
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.27
1.44
Portability PPG Range
0.65
42.61
Portability Score
65.15
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
41
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-88.04
PPG-0.43
GF-0.69
GA0.83
PPG-1.67
PPG0.28
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate0.5%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.69
Goals Std-1.64
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-3.85
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.83
Conceded Std0.49
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate15.8%
Conceded 3+ rate22.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.41
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-1.08
Stability score-2.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-3.97
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.33
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.41
Portability PPG Range0.79
Portability Score-22.54
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Current Team ELO-88.04
Current Opponent ELO88.04
Current ELO Difference-176.1
Expected score-0.25
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

RW Oberhausen U19

W
Osnabrück U190–2RW Oberhausen U191 Nov · away
Pick: Osnabrück U19 48% · missed
L
RW Oberhausen U191–3Rot-Weiss Essen U1924 Oct · home
Pick: RW Oberhausen U19 40% · missed
L
Borussia Dortmund U196–2RW Oberhausen U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Dortmund U19 70% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

W
Fortuna Düsseldorf U193–1Osnabrück U1925 Oct · home
Pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 73% · hit
W
Rot-Weiss Essen U191–4Fortuna Düsseldorf U1918 Oct · away
Pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

RW Oberhausen U19 and Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 meet in U19 Bundesliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: RW Oberhausen U19 win 23.1%, draw 24.4%, Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 win 52.5%. The pick is Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.6%. Both teams to score: 62.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.