Jiul Petroşani vs Filiaşi
Match result probability Model pick: Jiul Petroşani win
Jiul Petroşani winPick
66.7%
Draw
17.9%
Filiaşi win
15.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.7%
No52.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.562.2%
Under 2.537.8%
How much we know
Jiul Petroşani history35 matches
Filiaşi history32 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Jiul Petroşani
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.
Why Jiul Petroşani are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Jiul Petroşani are rated 148 Elo points higher
Elo 1,524 against 1,377. On rating alone Jiul Petroşani would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.
-
Jiul Petroşani score far more
1.63 goals a game over 35 matches for Jiul Petroşani, against 1.00 over 32 for Filiaşi.
-
Jiul Petroşani concede fewer
Jiul Petroşani concede 0.97 a game, Filiaşi 2.41.
-
Filiaşi games more often go over 2.5 goals
43% of Jiul Petroşani matches, against 69% for Filiaşi. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 12 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Filiaşi@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1524.4
ELO
1376.5
35
ELO · Matches
32
1524.4
Current Team ELO
1376.5
1376.5
Current Opponent ELO
1524.4
147.8
Current ELO Difference
-147.8
0.70
Expected score
0.30
35
History Matches
32
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.19
52.69
Overperformance
38.18
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.50
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
2.50
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.60
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.63
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.57
Overall performance9 signals 90
35
Matches
32
1.60
PPG
0.59
45.7%
Win rate
15.6%
22.9%
Draw rate
12.5%
31.4%
Loss rate
71.9%
68.6%
Over 1.5 rate
84.4%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
37.1%
Over 3.5 rate
40.6%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.46
Venue performance10 signals 100
19
Matches
16
1.58
PPG
0.56
47.4%
Win rate
18.8%
15.8%
Draw rate
0.0%
36.8%
Loss rate
81.3%
68.4%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
36.8%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.10
19
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.63
Goals for per game
1.00
74.3%
Scoring rate
53.1%
37.1%
BTTS rate
43.8%
1.53
Goals for per game
0.75
73.7%
Scoring rate
37.5%
36.8%
BTTS rate
18.8%
35
History Matches
32
1.63
Goals Mean
1.00
1.53
Goals Std
1.22
74.3%
Scored 1+ rate
53.1%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
28.1%
22.9%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.53
Venue Goals Mean
0.75
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.97
Goals against per game
2.41
60.0%
Conceding rate
90.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.63
63.2%
Conceding rate
81.3%
35
History Matches
32
0.97
Conceded Mean
2.41
0.94
Conceded Std
1.78
31.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
68.8%
5.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
40.6%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.4%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
46.9%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
62.5%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.4%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
46.9%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
62.5%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
35
History Matches
32
0.96
Result entropy
0.72
2.03
Goal Difference Std
2.46
3.61
Stability score
28.33
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
19
Eligible Matches
25
6
Lead Matches
3
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
1.00
4
Trailing Matches
10
50.0%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
19
Halftime Coverage Matches
25
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.36
0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
1.11
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.68
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
87.02
Rest days
94.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
15
Normal Rest History Matches
13
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.23
19
Long Rest History Matches
18
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.89
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.14
1.00
Portability PPG Range
0.28
57.49
Portability Score
78.19
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
35
Clean History Matches
32
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO147.8
PPG1.01
GF0.63
GA-1.43
PPG1.02
PPG0.40
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate30.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate18.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.36
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.63
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate21.2%
Scored 2+ rate14.7%
Scored 3+ rate10.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-1.43
Conceded Std-0.84
Clean-sheet rate30.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.37
Conceded 3+ rate-0.35
Venue Conceded Mean-1.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.85
History Matches3
Result entropy0.25
Goal Difference Std-0.43
Stability score-24.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.48
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate40.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.23
Portability PPG Range0.72
Portability Score-20.70
Rest days-7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.90
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.11
Current Team ELO147.8
Current Opponent ELO-147.8
Current ELO Difference295.7
Expected score0.40
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.23
Overperformance14.52
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Jiul Petroşani
L
Jiul Petroşani0–3Oltul Curtişoara30 Oct · home
Pick: Jiul Petroşani 44% · missed D
Vulturii Fărcăşeşti0–0Jiul Petroşani24 Oct · away
Pick: Vulturii Fărcăşeşti 42% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Filiaşi
L
Unirea Bascov2–0Filiaşi30 Oct · away
Pick: Unirea Bascov 56% · hit W
Filiaşi3–0Petrolul Hartiesti23 Oct · home
Pick: Filiaşi 59% · hit D
Academica Balș1–1Filiaşi16 Oct · away
Pick: Academica Balș 57% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Jiul Petroşani and Filiaşi meet in Liga III - Serie 6 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Jiul Petroşani win 66.7%, draw 17.9%, Filiaşi win 15.4%. The pick is Jiul Petroşani win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.2%. Both teams to score: 47.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.