ScoreProb
Challenger Pro League Belgium Round 10 2026

K. Lierse S.K. vs AS Eupen

K. Lierse S.K. Home · Elo 1,485
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
AS Eupen Away · Elo 1,529
Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Lier Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: AS Eupen win
K. Lierse S.K. win
33.1%
Draw
25.0%
AS Eupen winPick
42.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.4%
No46.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.5%
Under 2.549.5%

How much we know

K. Lierse S.K. history59 matches
AS Eupen history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why AS Eupen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • AS Eupen are rated 44 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,529 against 1,485. On rating alone AS Eupen would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • AS Eupen score more

    1.37 goals a game over 59 matches for K. Lierse S.K., against 1.63 over 56 for AS Eupen.

  • Defences are close

    K. Lierse S.K. concede 1.20 a game, AS Eupen 1.21.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of K. Lierse S.K. matches, against 54% for AS Eupen. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
K. Lierse S.K.
AS Eupen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1484.9
ELO
1529.0
59
ELO · Matches
56
1484.9
Current Team ELO
1529.0
1529.0
Current Opponent ELO
1484.9
-44.14
Current ELO Difference
44.14
0.44
Expected score
0.56
59
History Matches
56
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
48.04
Overperformance
51.59
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
2.20
Goals for per game
3.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.90
1.70
Goals for per game
3.30
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.30
1.85
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.79
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.53
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
56
1.27
PPG
1.50
35.6%
Win rate
41.1%
20.3%
Draw rate
26.8%
44.1%
Loss rate
32.1%
64.4%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
22.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.9%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
29
1.20
PPG
1.17
32.0%
Win rate
31.0%
24.0%
Draw rate
24.1%
44.0%
Loss rate
44.8%
64.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.5%
48.0%
Over 2.5 rate
44.8%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
25
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
1.63
69.5%
Scoring rate
82.1%
47.5%
BTTS rate
55.4%
1.08
Goals for per game
1.38
64.0%
Scoring rate
75.9%
52.0%
BTTS rate
48.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
56
1.37
Goals Mean
1.63
1.76
Goals Std
1.66
69.5%
Scored 1+ rate
82.1%
28.8%
Scored 2+ rate
39.3%
16.9%
Scored 3+ rate
17.9%
1.08
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.20
Goals against per game
1.21
69.5%
Conceding rate
66.1%
1.36
Goals against per game
1.31
72.0%
Conceding rate
65.5%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
56
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.12
Conceded Std
1.06
35.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.1%
8.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
30.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
30.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
56
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
2.13
Goal Difference Std
2.02
4.18
Stability score
1.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
54
22
Lead Matches
20
68.2%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.77
12
Trailing Matches
13
8.3%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.88
Rest days
78.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.11
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.41
0.36
Portability PPG Range
1.14
77.36
Portability Score
55.15
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-44.14
PPG-0.23
GF-0.25
GA-0.01
PPG0.00
PPG0.03
PPG0.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate12.7%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate11.9%
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.95
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.01
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.22
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score2.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.03
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.26
Portability PPG Range-0.78
Portability Score22.21
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.11
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.09
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.86
Current Team ELO-44.14
Current Opponent ELO44.14
Current ELO Difference-88.28
Expected score-0.13
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

K. Lierse S.K.

L
KAA Gent II2–0K. Lierse S.K.30 Oct · away
Pick: K. Lierse S.K. 48% · missed
D
Seraing United1–1K. Lierse S.K.30 Aug · away
Pick: K. Lierse S.K. 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

AS Eupen

L
AS Eupen1–2Excelsior Virton1 Nov · home
Pick: Excelsior Virton 40% · hit
L
AS Eupen1–2Beerschot VA25 Oct · home
Pick: Beerschot VA 39% · hit
L
KV Mechelen5–1AS Eupen18 Oct · away
Pick: KV Mechelen 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

K. Lierse S.K. and AS Eupen meet in Challenger Pro League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Lier. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: K. Lierse S.K. win 33.1%, draw 25.0%, AS Eupen win 42.0%. The pick is AS Eupen win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.5%. Both teams to score: 53.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.