ScoreProb
Challenger Pro League Belgium Round 10 2026

Lokeren-Temse vs Dender

Lokeren-Temse Home · Elo 1,541
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dender Away · Elo 1,401
Daknamstadion, Lokeren Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lokeren-Temse win
Lokeren-Temse winPick
53.1%
Draw
23.8%
Dender win
23.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.4%
No45.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.9%
Under 2.541.1%

How much we know

Lokeren-Temse history58 matches
Dender history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 18:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Lokeren-Temse are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lokeren-Temse are rated 140 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,541 against 1,401. On rating alone Lokeren-Temse would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Lokeren-Temse score far more

    1.71 goals a game over 58 matches for Lokeren-Temse, against 1.09 over 64 for Dender.

  • Lokeren-Temse concede fewer

    Lokeren-Temse concede 1.22 a game, Dender 1.81.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Lokeren-Temse matches, against 59% for Dender. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lokeren-Temse
Dender@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1540.5
ELO
1400.6
58
ELO · Matches
64
1540.5
Current Team ELO
1400.6
1400.6
Current Opponent ELO
1540.5
139.9
Current ELO Difference
-139.9
0.69
Expected score
0.31
58
History Matches
64
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.08
52.75
Overperformance
44.10
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.80
2.60
Goals for per game
0.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
0.70
2.80
Goals for per game
0.90
0.70
Goals against per game
2.10
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.58
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
64
1.59
PPG
0.83
44.8%
Win rate
18.8%
24.1%
Draw rate
26.6%
31.0%
Loss rate
54.7%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
73.4%
56.9%
Over 2.5 rate
59.4%
32.8%
Over 3.5 rate
35.9%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
33
1.60
PPG
0.58
43.3%
Win rate
12.1%
30.0%
Draw rate
21.2%
26.7%
Loss rate
66.7%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
78.8%
63.3%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
30
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.71
Goals for per game
1.09
84.5%
Scoring rate
65.6%
60.3%
BTTS rate
57.8%
1.90
Goals for per game
1.03
86.7%
Scoring rate
63.6%
63.3%
BTTS rate
60.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
58
History Matches
64
1.71
Goals Mean
1.09
1.27
Goals Std
1.13
84.5%
Scored 1+ rate
65.6%
53.4%
Scored 2+ rate
29.7%
17.2%
Scored 3+ rate
6.3%
1.90
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.22
Goals against per game
1.81
72.4%
Conceding rate
81.3%
1.33
Goals against per game
2.09
70.0%
Conceding rate
87.9%
0.50
Goals against per game
0.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
58
History Matches
64
1.22
Conceded Mean
1.81
1.08
Conceded Std
1.38
32.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.7%
13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.6%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
2.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
15.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.1%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
15.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.1%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
64
0.97
Result entropy
0.91
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.73
2.98
Stability score
9.33
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
64
21
Lead Matches
13
90.5%
Lead Win Rate
53.8%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.64
17
Trailing Matches
23
41.2%
Non-loss rate
17.4%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
4.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.01
Rest days
78.18
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.64
21
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
1.50
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.27
0.83
Portability PPG Range
0.65
58.65
Portability Score
65.36
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO139.9
PPG0.76
GF0.61
GA-0.59
PPG1.50
PPG1.02
PPG1.60
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate8.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate17.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.61
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate18.9%
Scored 2+ rate23.8%
Scored 3+ rate11.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.87
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.77
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.59
Conceded Std-0.30
Clean-sheet rate8.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.76
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.57
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score-6.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.36
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate36.6%
Lead Points Retention0.28
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate23.8%
Trailing Win Rate13.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.18
Portability Score-6.71
Rest days0.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.11
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.37
Current Team ELO139.9
Current Opponent ELO-139.9
Current ELO Difference279.9
Expected score0.38
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance8.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lokeren-Temse

L
Patro Eisden3–1Lokeren-Temse31 Oct · away
Pick: Patro Eisden 41% · hit
W
Lokeren-Temse2–0KAA Gent II24 Oct · home
Pick: Lokeren-Temse 64% · hit
L
Club Brugge KV1–0Lokeren-Temse17 Oct · away
Pick: Club Brugge KV 68% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dender

D
Dender1–1KRC Genk II1 Nov · home
Pick: Dender 59% · missed
L
Standard Liege2–0Dender16 Oct · away
Pick: Standard Liege 51% · hit
W
Liège1–2Dender29 Aug · away
Pick: Liège 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lokeren-Temse and Dender meet in Challenger Pro League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 18:15 UTC. The match is played at Daknamstadion, Lokeren. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Lokeren-Temse win 53.1%, draw 23.8%, Dender win 23.1%. The pick is Lokeren-Temse win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.9%. Both teams to score: 54.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.