ScoreProb
Liga Leumit Israel Round 13 2026

Kafr Qasim vs Hapoel Afula

Kafr Qasim Home · Elo 1,456
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hapoel Afula Away · Elo 1,495
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hapoel Afula win
Kafr Qasim win
33.1%
Draw
29.2%
Hapoel Afula winPick
37.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.3%
No50.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.6%
Under 2.553.4%

How much we know

Kafr Qasim history59 matches
Hapoel Afula history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Hapoel Afula are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hapoel Afula are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,495 against 1,456. On rating alone Hapoel Afula would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Kafr Qasim score more

    1.15 goals a game over 59 matches for Kafr Qasim, against 1.02 over 58 for Hapoel Afula.

  • Kafr Qasim concede fewer

    Kafr Qasim concede 1.17 a game, Hapoel Afula 1.45.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    36% of Kafr Qasim matches, against 41% for Hapoel Afula. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kafr Qasim
Hapoel Afula
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1455.6
ELO
1495.2
59
ELO · Matches
58
1455.6
Current Team ELO
1495.2
1495.2
Current Opponent ELO
1455.6
-39.59
Current ELO Difference
39.59
0.44
Expected score
0.56
59
History Matches
58
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.00
47.27
Overperformance
50.03
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.30
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.54
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.61
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
58
1.31
PPG
1.22
33.9%
Win rate
31.0%
28.8%
Draw rate
29.3%
37.3%
Loss rate
39.7%
71.2%
Over 1.5 rate
69.0%
35.6%
Over 2.5 rate
41.4%
22.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.3%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
28
1.43
PPG
1.11
40.0%
Win rate
28.6%
23.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
36.7%
Loss rate
46.4%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
39.3%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
30
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.15
Goals for per game
1.02
67.8%
Scoring rate
63.8%
44.1%
BTTS rate
44.8%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.93
76.7%
Scoring rate
71.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
53.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
59
History Matches
58
1.15
Goals Mean
1.02
1.12
Goals Std
0.92
67.8%
Scored 1+ rate
63.8%
28.8%
Scored 2+ rate
32.8%
13.6%
Scored 3+ rate
5.2%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.17
Goals against per game
1.45
69.5%
Conceding rate
70.7%
1.27
Goals against per game
1.61
66.7%
Conceding rate
78.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
59
History Matches
58
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.45
0.99
Conceded Std
1.37
37.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.7%
8.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.7%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
1.61
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
32.2%
Failed-to-score rate
36.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
32.2%
Failed-to-score rate
36.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
58
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.68
0.50
Stability score
0.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
58
11
Lead Matches
15
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
86.7%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.89
24
Trailing Matches
19
29.2%
Non-loss rate
10.5%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.36
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
43
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.10
13
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.23
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
3.00
50.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
3.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.50
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.14
1.14
Portability PPG Range
0.28
51.35
Portability Score
78.43
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-39.59
PPG0.08
GF0.14
GA-0.28
PPG-1.50
PPG0.33
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate1.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate11.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.14
Goals Std0.20
Scored 1+ rate4.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate8.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.27
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std-0.37
Clean-sheet rate1.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.66
History Matches1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score-0.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.09
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate18.6%
Trailing Win Rate3.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.34
Portability PPG Range0.87
Portability Score-27.08
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.16
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Current Team ELO-39.59
Current Opponent ELO39.59
Current ELO Difference-79.18
Expected score-0.11
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kafr Qasim

L
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth3–2Kafr Qasim30 Oct · away
Pick: Kafr Qasim 47% · missed
W
Kafr Qasim5–2Beitar Petah Tikva26 Oct · home
Pick: Kafr Qasim 66% · hit
L
Kafr Qasim0–1Ashdod23 Oct · home
Pick: Kafr Qasim 54% · missed
L
Kiryat Yam SC2–1Kafr Qasim16 Oct · away
Pick: Kiryat Yam SC 47% · hit
L
Hapoel Rishon LeZion2–1Kafr Qasim30 Aug · away
Pick: Hapoel Rishon LeZion 47% · hit

Hapoel Afula

W
Hapoel Afula1–0Maccabi Kiryat Gat30 Oct · home
Pick: Hapoel Afula 52% · hit
W
Beitar Nahariya1–3Hapoel Afula26 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 38% · missed
L
Hapoel Kfar Saba2–0Hapoel Afula23 Oct · away
Pick: Hapoel Afula 43% · missed
D
Hapoel Afula0–0Maccabi Herzliya16 Oct · home
Pick: Hapoel Afula 46% · missed
W
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth0–1Hapoel Afula24 Aug · away
Pick: Hapoel Afula 42% · hit

About this match

Kafr Qasim and Hapoel Afula meet in Liga Leumit on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Kafr Qasim win 33.1%, draw 29.2%, Hapoel Afula win 37.6%. The pick is Hapoel Afula win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.6%. Both teams to score: 49.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.