ScoreProb
4. liga - Divizie B Czechia Group B - 14 2026

Karlovy Vary vs Ostrov

Karlovy Vary Home · Elo 1,552
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ostrov Away · Elo 1,528
Stadion Drahovice Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Karlovy Vary win
Karlovy Vary winPick
65.0%
Draw
16.4%
Ostrov win
18.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.5%
No38.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.8%
Under 2.526.2%

How much we know

Karlovy Vary history55 matches
Ostrov history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 09:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.0%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Karlovy Vary are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,552 against 1,528. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Karlovy Vary score more

    1.96 goals a game over 55 matches for Karlovy Vary, against 1.55 over 49 for Ostrov.

  • Defences are close

    Karlovy Vary concede 1.60 a game, Ostrov 1.47.

  • Karlovy Vary games more often go over 2.5 goals

    65% of Karlovy Vary matches, against 55% for Ostrov. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Karlovy Vary
Ostrov
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1551.9
ELO
1527.9
55
ELO · Matches
49
1551.9
Current Team ELO
1527.9
1527.9
Current Opponent ELO
1551.9
24.03
Current ELO Difference
-24.03
0.53
Expected score
0.47
55
History Matches
49
0.06
Residual Mean
0.02
54.16
Overperformance
51.54
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
3.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.40
3.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.70
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
3.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
2.01
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.99
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.93
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
49
1.75
PPG
1.59
50.9%
Win rate
46.9%
21.8%
Draw rate
18.4%
27.3%
Loss rate
34.7%
87.3%
Over 1.5 rate
87.8%
65.5%
Over 2.5 rate
55.1%
52.7%
Over 3.5 rate
30.6%
2.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
26
1.81
PPG
1.35
51.6%
Win rate
38.5%
25.8%
Draw rate
19.2%
22.6%
Loss rate
42.3%
87.1%
Over 1.5 rate
92.3%
67.7%
Over 2.5 rate
57.7%
58.1%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
2.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
31
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.96
Goals for per game
1.55
74.5%
Scoring rate
83.7%
52.7%
BTTS rate
55.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.54
77.4%
Scoring rate
80.8%
58.1%
BTTS rate
61.5%
3.33
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
55
History Matches
49
1.96
Goals Mean
1.55
1.63
Goals Std
1.07
74.5%
Scored 1+ rate
83.7%
60.0%
Scored 2+ rate
49.0%
36.4%
Scored 3+ rate
16.3%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.54
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.60
Goals against per game
1.47
70.9%
Conceding rate
67.3%
1.45
Goals against per game
1.81
74.2%
Conceding rate
76.9%
2.33
Goals against per game
4.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
49
1.60
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.58
Conceded Std
1.54
41.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.8%
23.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.4%
1.45
Venue Conceded Mean
1.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
49
0.94
Result entropy
0.94
2.53
Goal Difference Std
2.08
6.23
Stability score
5.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
49
26
Lead Matches
15
80.8%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.84
19
Trailing Matches
16
31.6%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.72
Rest days
83.76
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
29
Normal Rest History Matches
23
2.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
22
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.00
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.50
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.29
1.25
Portability PPG Range
0.58
51.65
Portability Score
63.44
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO24.03
PPG0.15
GF0.41
GA0.13
PPG2.00
PPG0.46
PPG0.80
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate9.1%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Failed-to-score rate3.3%
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.41
Goals Std0.56
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate11.0%
Scored 3+ rate20.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.00
Recent 10 Goals Std1.21
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate3.0%
Conceded 3+ rate1.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.72
History Matches6
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.45
Stability score0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.69
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate0.8%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate6.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.67
Portability Score-11.79
Rest days-6.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.34
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Current Team ELO24.03
Current Opponent ELO-24.03
Current ELO Difference48.06
Expected score0.07
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Karlovy Vary

W
Karlovy Vary4–0Ústí nad Labem II31 Oct · home
Pick: Karlovy Vary 76% · hit
W
Hvězda Cheb1–2Karlovy Vary23 Oct · away
Pick: Karlovy Vary 69% · hit
D
Karlovy Vary1–1Slaný17 Oct · home
Pick: Karlovy Vary 41% · missed
L
Slovan Velvary2–1Karlovy Vary29 Aug · away
Pick: Karlovy Vary 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ostrov

W
Ostrov3–0Hvězda Cheb31 Oct · home
Pick: Ostrov 60% · hit
L
Slaný4–0Ostrov24 Oct · away
Pick: Slaný 59% · hit
L
Ostrov1–4Štětí17 Oct · home
Pick: Štětí 40% · hit
L
Újezd Praha 43–2Ostrov29 Aug · away
Pick: Újezd Praha 4 60% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Karlovy Vary and Ostrov meet in 4. liga - Divizie B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 09:15 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Drahovice. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Karlovy Vary win 65.0%, draw 16.4%, Ostrov win 18.6%. The pick is Karlovy Vary win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.8%. Both teams to score: 61.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.