ScoreProb
Ligue A Burundi Round 12 2026

Kayanza United vs Le Messager Ngozi

Kayanza United Home · Elo 1,492
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Le Messager Ngozi Away · Elo 1,505
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Le Messager Ngozi win
Kayanza United win
28.8%
Draw
31.0%
Le Messager Ngozi winPick
40.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.5%
No50.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.6%
Under 2.552.4%

How much we know

Kayanza United history44 matches
Le Messager Ngozi history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Le Messager Ngozi are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,492 against 1,505. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Kayanza United score more

    1.23 goals a game over 44 matches for Kayanza United, against 1.00 over 46 for Le Messager Ngozi.

  • Le Messager Ngozi concede fewer

    Kayanza United concede 1.68 a game, Le Messager Ngozi 1.02.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Kayanza United matches, against 39% for Le Messager Ngozi. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kayanza United
Le Messager Ngozi
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1491.8
ELO
1505.3
44
ELO · Matches
46
1491.8
Current Team ELO
1505.3
1505.3
Current Opponent ELO
1491.8
-13.48
Current ELO Difference
13.48
0.48
Expected score
0.52
44
History Matches
46
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.01
49.16
Overperformance
50.73
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
0.60
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.90
1.10
Goals for per game
1.70
0.90
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
0.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
46
1.16
PPG
1.26
27.3%
Win rate
32.6%
34.1%
Draw rate
28.3%
38.6%
Loss rate
39.1%
65.9%
Over 1.5 rate
54.3%
43.2%
Over 2.5 rate
39.1%
38.6%
Over 3.5 rate
17.4%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
22
1.19
PPG
1.32
28.6%
Win rate
40.9%
33.3%
Draw rate
9.1%
38.1%
Loss rate
50.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
21
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
1.00
68.2%
Scoring rate
60.9%
52.3%
BTTS rate
43.5%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.09
71.4%
Scoring rate
68.2%
52.4%
BTTS rate
54.5%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.50
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
44
History Matches
46
1.23
Goals Mean
1.00
1.11
Goals Std
1.04
68.2%
Scored 1+ rate
60.9%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
26.1%
15.9%
Scored 3+ rate
10.9%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.09
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.68
Goals against per game
1.02
68.2%
Conceding rate
67.4%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.36
71.4%
Conceding rate
86.4%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.50
0.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
44
History Matches
46
1.68
Conceded Mean
1.02
2.02
Conceded Std
0.97
38.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.9%
20.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.7%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.36
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
46
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
2.05
Goal Difference Std
1.38
0.91
Stability score
0.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
37
Eligible Matches
42
9
Lead Matches
12
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.75
13
Trailing Matches
11
23.1%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
37
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
1.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.08
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
17
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.08
23
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.87
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.47
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.47
Portability PPG Range
0.26
68.18
Portability Score
79.55
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-13.48
PPG-0.10
GF0.23
GA0.66
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.13
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate14.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate7.3%
Scored 2+ rate10.3%
Scored 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.66
Conceded Std1.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate11.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.23
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.67
Stability score0.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.89
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate11.1%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate23.1%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.46
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.21
Portability Score-11.36
Rest days4.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.17
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.62
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Current Team ELO-13.48
Current Opponent ELO13.48
Current ELO Difference-26.97
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.57
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kayanza United

L
Kayanza United1–2Muzinga31 Oct · home
Pick: Kayanza United 45% · missed
D
Bumamuru1–1Kayanza United25 Oct · away
Pick: Bumamuru 42% · missed
L
Kayanza United1–3Rukinzo18 Oct · home
Pick: Rukinzo 43% · hit
D
Kayanza United1–1Inter Star4 Oct · home
Pick: Kayanza United 46% · missed
D
Kayanza United1–1Vital'O30 Aug · home
Pick: Vital'O 43% · missed

Le Messager Ngozi

L
Vital'O2–0Le Messager Ngozi30 Oct · away
Pick: Vital'O 38% · hit
W
Le Messager Ngozi1–0Young Star25 Oct · home
Pick: Le Messager Ngozi 62% · hit
W
Flambeau du Centre0–1Le Messager Ngozi18 Oct · away
Pick: Flambeau du Centre 44% · missed
W
Le Messager Ngozi1–0Panthere Noir4 Oct · home
Pick: Le Messager Ngozi 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kayanza United and Le Messager Ngozi meet in Ligue A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Kayanza United win 28.8%, draw 31.0%, Le Messager Ngozi win 40.2%. The pick is Le Messager Ngozi win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.6%. Both teams to score: 49.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.