ScoreProb
1. Lig Türkiye Round 14 2026

Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K.

Keçiörengücü Home · Elo 1,535
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Manisa F.K. Away · Elo 1,534
Aktepe Stadium, Ankara Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Keçiörengücü win
Keçiörengücü winPick
44.5%
Draw
24.1%
Manisa F.K. win
31.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.2%
No37.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.3%
Under 2.536.7%

How much we know

Keçiörengücü history66 matches
Manisa F.K. history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Keçiörengücü are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,535 against 1,534. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Keçiörengücü score more

    1.92 goals a game over 66 matches for Keçiörengücü, against 1.52 over 61 for Manisa F.K..

  • Defences are close

    Keçiörengücü concede 1.42 a game, Manisa F.K. 1.43.

  • Keçiörengücü games more often go over 2.5 goals

    65% of Keçiörengücü matches, against 56% for Manisa F.K.. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Keçiörengücü
Manisa F.K.
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1535.2
ELO
1533.9
66
ELO · Matches
61
1535.2
Current Team ELO
1533.9
1533.9
Current Opponent ELO
1535.2
1.35
Current ELO Difference
-1.35
0.50
Expected score
0.50
66
History Matches
61
0.02
Residual Mean
0.03
51.81
Overperformance
52.08
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
2.40
Goals for per game
2.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.90
1.80
Goals for per game
1.90
1.00
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.45
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.84
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
61
1.44
PPG
1.43
39.4%
Win rate
41.0%
25.8%
Draw rate
19.7%
34.8%
Loss rate
39.3%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.3%
65.2%
Over 2.5 rate
55.7%
43.9%
Over 3.5 rate
32.8%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
31
1.63
PPG
1.26
43.8%
Win rate
35.5%
31.3%
Draw rate
19.4%
25.0%
Loss rate
45.2%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.1%
46.9%
Over 3.5 rate
32.3%
2.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
32
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.92
Goals for per game
1.52
80.3%
Scoring rate
75.4%
63.6%
BTTS rate
52.5%
2.22
Goals for per game
1.39
81.3%
Scoring rate
77.4%
62.5%
BTTS rate
58.1%
2.67
Goals for per game
2.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
61
1.92
Goals Mean
1.52
1.73
Goals Std
1.37
80.3%
Scored 1+ rate
75.4%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
44.3%
30.3%
Scored 3+ rate
16.4%
2.22
Venue Goals Mean
1.39
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.43
75.8%
Conceding rate
73.8%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.58
65.6%
Conceding rate
74.2%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
61
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.43
1.26
Conceded Std
1.36
36.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.6%
19.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.8%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.58
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
61
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
2.22
Goal Difference Std
2.15
1.36
Stability score
4.20
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
61
27
Lead Matches
18
74.1%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.91
18
Trailing Matches
17
27.8%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.92
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.85
Rest days
74.67
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
46
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.37
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.21
17
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
2.33
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
2.33
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.33
4
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.48
0.37
Portability PPG Range
1.11
79.14
Portability Score
51.04
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO1.35
PPG0.01
GF0.40
GA0.00
PPG-1.00
PPG0.37
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate8.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.40
Goals Std0.35
Scored 1+ rate4.9%
Scored 2+ rate5.7%
Scored 3+ rate13.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.83
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.09
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate4.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.26
History Matches5
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score-2.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.24
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate4.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.35
Portability PPG Range-0.74
Portability Score28.10
Rest days1.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.16
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Current Team ELO1.35
Current Opponent ELO-1.35
Current ELO Difference2.71
Expected score0.00
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Keçiörengücü

L
Esenler Erokspor3–2Keçiörengücü30 Oct · away
Pick: Esenler Erokspor 39% · hit
L
Keçiörengücü2–4Bursaspor25 Oct · home
Pick: Keçiörengücü 37% · missed
W
Fatih Karagümrük1–2Keçiörengücü19 Oct · away
Pick: Fatih Karagümrük 38% · missed
D
Keçiörengücü0–0Iğdır FK14 Oct · home
Pick: Keçiörengücü 53% · missed
W
Boluspor0–2Keçiörengücü1 Sep · away
Pick: Keçiörengücü 50% · hit

Manisa F.K.

W
Manisa F.K.2–1Batman Petrolspor31 Oct · home
Pick: Manisa F.K. 43% · hit
L
Mardin 19692–1Manisa F.K.26 Oct · away
Pick: Mardin 1969 53% · hit
L
Manisa F.K.3–4Muğlaspor19 Oct · home
Pick: Manisa F.K. 47% · missed
D
Manisa F.K.1–1Esenler Erokspor15 Oct · home
Pick: Manisa F.K. 46% · missed
D
Manisa F.K.0–0Bodrum FK30 Aug · home
Pick: Manisa F.K. 47% · missed

About this match

Keçiörengücü and Manisa F.K. meet in 1. Lig on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. The match is played at Aktepe Stadium, Ankara. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Keçiörengücü win 44.5%, draw 24.1%, Manisa F.K. win 31.4%. The pick is Keçiörengücü win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.3%. Both teams to score: 62.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.