ScoreProb
1. Lig Türkiye Round 14 2026

Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor

Muğlaspor Home · Elo 1,609
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Esenler Erokspor Away · Elo 1,584
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Muğlaspor win
Muğlaspor winPick
37.2%
Draw
28.0%
Esenler Erokspor win
34.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.2%
No54.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.0%
Under 2.556.0%

How much we know

Muğlaspor history59 matches
Esenler Erokspor history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Muğlaspor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Muğlaspor are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,609 against 1,584. On rating alone Muğlaspor would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Esenler Erokspor score more

    1.42 goals a game over 59 matches for Muğlaspor, against 1.85 over 62 for Esenler Erokspor.

  • Muğlaspor concede fewer

    Muğlaspor concede 0.51 a game, Esenler Erokspor 1.11.

  • Esenler Erokspor games more often go over 2.5 goals

    37% of Muğlaspor matches, against 52% for Esenler Erokspor. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Muğlaspor
Esenler Erokspor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1609.4
ELO
1583.6
59
ELO · Matches
62
1609.4
Current Team ELO
1583.6
1583.6
Current Opponent ELO
1609.4
25.87
Current ELO Difference
-25.87
0.54
Expected score
0.46
59
History Matches
62
0.09
Residual Mean
0.07
56.63
Overperformance
55.28
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
0.20
Goals for per game
0.60
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.40
0.90
Goals for per game
1.00
0.60
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.54
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
62
2.02
PPG
1.68
59.3%
Win rate
43.5%
23.7%
Draw rate
37.1%
16.9%
Loss rate
19.4%
57.6%
Over 1.5 rate
85.5%
37.3%
Over 2.5 rate
51.6%
11.9%
Over 3.5 rate
35.5%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
30
2.03
PPG
1.60
58.6%
Win rate
40.0%
27.6%
Draw rate
40.0%
13.8%
Loss rate
20.0%
55.2%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
27.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
3.4%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
29
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.42
Goals for per game
1.85
72.9%
Scoring rate
82.3%
22.0%
BTTS rate
62.9%
1.17
Goals for per game
1.83
69.0%
Scoring rate
76.7%
20.7%
BTTS rate
56.7%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.67
0.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
59
History Matches
62
1.42
Goals Mean
1.85
1.25
Goals Std
1.45
72.9%
Scored 1+ rate
82.3%
42.4%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
16.9%
Scored 3+ rate
32.3%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.83
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.51
Goals against per game
1.11
32.2%
Conceding rate
74.2%
0.48
Goals against per game
1.07
31.0%
Conceding rate
70.0%
0.67
Goals against per game
0.67
33.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
59
History Matches
62
0.51
Conceded Mean
1.11
0.85
Conceded Std
0.99
13.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.2%
5.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.7%
0.48
Venue Conceded Mean
1.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
67.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
17.7%
69.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
67.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
17.7%
69.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
67.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
62
0.87
Result entropy
0.95
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.81
13.35
Stability score
4.63
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
62
27
Lead Matches
20
85.2%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.78
7
Trailing Matches
14
28.6%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
21.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.11
0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.77
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
45
Normal Rest History Matches
43
2.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
12
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.67
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
66.7%
Draw rate
100.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.67
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.68
Portability PPG Std
0.37
1.72
Portability PPG Range
0.90
42.32
Portability Score
57.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO25.87
PPG0.34
GF-0.43
GA-0.60
PPG-0.33
PPG0.43
PPG0.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate42.0%
Failed-to-score rate9.4%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate39.0%
Failed-to-score rate7.7%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.43
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.66
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.48
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.60
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate42.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.48
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score8.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.91
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate15.2%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.21
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.31
Portability PPG Range0.82
Portability Score-15.21
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.42
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.03
Current Team ELO25.87
Current Opponent ELO-25.87
Current ELO Difference51.75
Expected score0.07
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Muğlaspor

L
Kayserispor6–0Muğlaspor2 Nov · away
Pick: Kayserispor 41% · hit
W
Muğlaspor5–0İstanbulspor24 Oct · home
Pick: Muğlaspor 52% · hit
W
Manisa F.K.3–4Muğlaspor19 Oct · away
Pick: Manisa F.K. 47% · missed
L
Muğlaspor0–3Bursaspor15 Oct · home
Pick: Bursaspor 39% · hit
W
Ümraniyespor0–1Muğlaspor1 Sep · away
Pick: Ümraniyespor 39% · missed

Esenler Erokspor

W
Esenler Erokspor3–2Keçiörengücü30 Oct · home
Pick: Esenler Erokspor 39% · hit
L
Batman Petrolspor3–2Esenler Erokspor25 Oct · away
Pick: Batman Petrolspor 52% · hit
W
Esenler Erokspor4–2Mardin 196919 Oct · home
Pick: Mardin 1969 42% · missed
D
Manisa F.K.1–1Esenler Erokspor15 Oct · away
Pick: Manisa F.K. 46% · missed
L
Esenler Erokspor0–1Iğdır FK30 Aug · home
Pick: Esenler Erokspor 48% · missed

About this match

Muğlaspor and Esenler Erokspor meet in 1. Lig on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Muğlaspor win 37.2%, draw 28.0%, Esenler Erokspor win 34.8%. The pick is Muğlaspor win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.0%. Both teams to score: 45.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.