ScoreProb
Regionalliga - West Germany West - 16 2026

Köln II vs Sportfreunde Siegen

Köln II Home · Elo 1,514
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sportfreunde Siegen Away · Elo 1,578
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Köln II win
Köln II winPick
42.3%
Draw
20.4%
Sportfreunde Siegen win
37.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.1%
No43.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.7%
Under 2.538.3%

How much we know

Köln II history57 matches
Sportfreunde Siegen history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Köln II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sportfreunde Siegen are rated 63 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,578 against 1,514. On rating alone Sportfreunde Siegen would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Sportfreunde Siegen score more

    1.72 goals a game over 57 matches for Köln II, against 2.23 over 70 for Sportfreunde Siegen.

  • Sportfreunde Siegen concede fewer

    Köln II concede 1.79 a game, Sportfreunde Siegen 1.10.

  • Köln II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of Köln II matches, against 60% for Sportfreunde Siegen. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Köln II
Sportfreunde Siegen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1514.3
ELO
1577.6
57
ELO · Matches
70
1514.3
Current Team ELO
1577.6
1577.6
Current Opponent ELO
1514.3
-63.37
Current ELO Difference
63.37
0.41
Expected score
0.59
57
History Matches
70
0.02
Residual Mean
0.05
51.14
Overperformance
54.09
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.70
1.90
Goals for per game
3.10
1.90
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.10
1.58
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.81
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.07
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
70
1.37
PPG
1.86
40.4%
Win rate
52.9%
15.8%
Draw rate
27.1%
43.9%
Loss rate
20.0%
80.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.4%
68.4%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.4%
Over 3.5 rate
41.4%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.20
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
35
1.62
PPG
1.89
51.7%
Win rate
54.3%
6.9%
Draw rate
25.7%
41.4%
Loss rate
20.0%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
94.3%
69.0%
Over 2.5 rate
68.6%
37.9%
Over 3.5 rate
48.6%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
29
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.72
Goals for per game
2.23
78.9%
Scoring rate
85.7%
64.9%
BTTS rate
55.7%
1.86
Goals for per game
2.66
79.3%
Scoring rate
91.4%
62.1%
BTTS rate
62.9%
1.25
Goals for per game
0.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
57
History Matches
70
1.72
Goals Mean
2.23
1.45
Goals Std
1.87
78.9%
Scored 1+ rate
85.7%
47.4%
Scored 2+ rate
60.0%
28.1%
Scored 3+ rate
34.3%
1.86
Venue Goals Mean
2.66
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.79
Goals against per game
1.10
84.2%
Conceding rate
64.3%
1.76
Goals against per game
1.31
79.3%
Conceding rate
65.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
57
History Matches
70
1.79
Conceded Mean
1.10
1.31
Conceded Std
1.12
52.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.4%
28.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
1.76
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
8.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
8.6%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
70
0.93
Result entropy
0.92
1.85
Goal Difference Std
2.20
7.23
Stability score
7.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
68
19
Lead Matches
27
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
85.2%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.90
21
Trailing Matches
14
28.6%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
1.09
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.95
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.21
1.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.04
Rest days
78.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
5
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.80
27
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.84
27
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.10
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.75
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.87
1.00
Portability PPG Range
2.50
56.51
Portability Score
36.49
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-63.37
PPG-0.49
GF-0.51
GA0.69
PPG1.25
PPG-0.27
PPG0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate6.8%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate12.1%
History Matches-13
Goals Mean-0.51
Goals Std-0.42
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.23
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean0.69
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Conceded 2+ rate21.2%
Conceded 3+ rate18.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.36
History Matches-13
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.35
Stability score-0.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.74
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.56
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.49
Portability PPG Range-1.50
Portability Score20.02
Rest days-0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match2.20
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Current Team ELO-63.37
Current Opponent ELO63.37
Current ELO Difference-126.7
Expected score-0.18
History Matches-13
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Köln II

D
FC Bocholt2–2Köln II1 Nov · away
Pick: FC Bocholt 53% · missed
D
Köln II2–2Paderborn II24 Oct · home
Pick: Köln II 38% · missed
W
Schalke 04 II1–3Köln II20 Oct · away
Pick: Schalke 04 II 45% · missed
W
SV Rodinghausen2–3Köln II16 Oct · away
Pick: SV Rodinghausen 45% · missed
W
Bochum II0–4Köln II1 Sep · away
Pick: Bochum II 49% · missed

Sportfreunde Siegen

W
Sportfreunde Siegen5–0Bochum II31 Oct · home
Pick: Sportfreunde Siegen 51% · hit
W
Sportfreunde Lotte1–4Sportfreunde Siegen24 Oct · away
Pick: Sportfreunde Lotte 40% · missed
W
Sportfreunde Siegen3–1Rot-weiss Oberhausen17 Oct · home
Pick: Sportfreunde Siegen 53% · hit
L
Sportfreunde Siegen1–3Borussia Dortmund II4 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia Dortmund II 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Köln II and Sportfreunde Siegen meet in Regionalliga - West on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Köln II win 42.3%, draw 20.4%, Sportfreunde Siegen win 37.3%. The pick is Köln II win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.7%. Both teams to score: 56.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.