ScoreProb
Ýokary Liga Turkmenistan Round 26 2026

Köpetdag Aşgabat vs Aşgabat

Köpetdag Aşgabat Home · Elo 1,388
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Aşgabat Away · Elo 1,435
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Köpetdag Aşgabat win
Köpetdag Aşgabat winPick
39.7%
Draw
26.7%
Aşgabat win
33.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.8%
No47.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.5%
Under 2.545.5%

How much we know

Köpetdag Aşgabat history37 matches
Aşgabat history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Köpetdag Aşgabat are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Aşgabat are rated 47 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,435 against 1,388. On rating alone Aşgabat would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.84 goals a game over 37 matches for Köpetdag Aşgabat, against 0.92 over 37 for Aşgabat.

  • Aşgabat concede fewer

    Köpetdag Aşgabat concede 2.11 a game, Aşgabat 1.70.

  • Köpetdag Aşgabat games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of Köpetdag Aşgabat matches, against 49% for Aşgabat. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Köpetdag Aşgabat
Aşgabat@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1388.1
ELO
1434.9
37
ELO · Matches
37
1388.1
Current Team ELO
1434.9
1434.9
Current Opponent ELO
1388.1
-46.76
Current ELO Difference
46.76
0.43
Expected score
0.57
37
History Matches
37
-0.14
Residual Mean
-0.07
40.79
Overperformance
45.16
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
3.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.30
1.40
Goals for per game
1.50
2.20
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.14
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
37
0.68
PPG
1.00
16.2%
Win rate
27.0%
18.9%
Draw rate
18.9%
64.9%
Loss rate
54.1%
70.3%
Over 1.5 rate
64.9%
59.5%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
27.0%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
16
0.85
PPG
0.69
20.0%
Win rate
18.8%
25.0%
Draw rate
12.5%
55.0%
Loss rate
68.8%
65.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
35.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
20
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.84
Goals for per game
0.92
48.6%
Scoring rate
56.8%
43.2%
BTTS rate
43.2%
0.90
Goals for per game
0.81
50.0%
Scoring rate
56.3%
45.0%
BTTS rate
43.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.13
50.0%
Scoring rate
68.8%
43.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
37
History Matches
37
0.84
Goals Mean
0.92
1.15
Goals Std
1.10
48.6%
Scored 1+ rate
56.8%
18.9%
Scored 2+ rate
21.6%
10.8%
Scored 3+ rate
8.1%
0.90
Venue Goals Mean
0.81
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.11
Goals against per game
1.70
81.1%
Conceding rate
73.0%
1.95
Goals against per game
1.88
75.0%
Conceding rate
81.3%
1.88
Goals against per game
1.94
87.5%
Conceding rate
75.0%
37
History Matches
37
2.11
Conceded Mean
1.70
1.69
Conceded Std
1.66
56.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.2%
40.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.0%
1.95
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.0%
51.4%
Failed-to-score rate
43.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.0%
51.4%
Failed-to-score rate
43.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
37
0.81
Result entropy
0.91
2.02
Goal Difference Std
1.99
18.92
Stability score
8.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
19
Eligible Matches
21
1
Lead Matches
3
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
6
Trailing Matches
8
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
19
Halftime Coverage Matches
21
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
1.05
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
19
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
17
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.74
Competition & season17 signals
170
16
Matches
16
0.69
PPG
0.94
18.8%
Win rate
25.0%
12.5%
Draw rate
18.8%
68.8%
Loss rate
56.3%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.27
16
Current Competition Matches
16
0.69
Current Competition PPG
0.94
-0.88
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.81
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.01
Portability PPG Std
0.06
0.02
Portability PPG Range
0.11
97.96
Portability Score
90.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-46.76
PPG-0.32
GF-0.08
GA0.41
PPG-0.25
PPG0.16
PPG0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate8.1%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate6.3%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate2.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.13
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.41
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate13.5%
Conceded 3+ rate13.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.21
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score10.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.06
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.06
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.09
Portability Score7.88
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Current Team ELO-46.76
Current Opponent ELO46.76
Current ELO Difference-93.52
Expected score-0.13
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Köpetdag Aşgabat

No earlier results with our pick yet

Aşgabat

No earlier results with our pick yet

About this match

Köpetdag Aşgabat and Aşgabat meet in Ýokary Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Köpetdag Aşgabat win 39.7%, draw 26.7%, Aşgabat win 33.6%. The pick is Köpetdag Aşgabat win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.5%. Both teams to score: 52.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.