ScoreProb
Ýokary Liga Turkmenistan Round 26 2026

Merw vs Altyn Asyr

Merw Home · Elo 1,375
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Altyn Asyr Away · Elo 1,577
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Altyn Asyr win
Merw win
9.5%
Draw
13.9%
Altyn Asyr winPick
76.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes38.1%
No61.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.3%
Under 2.541.7%

How much we know

Merw history41 matches
Altyn Asyr history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (76.6%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Altyn Asyr are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Altyn Asyr are rated 202 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,577 against 1,375. On rating alone Altyn Asyr would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.

  • Altyn Asyr score far more

    0.59 goals a game over 41 matches for Merw, against 1.84 over 44 for Altyn Asyr.

  • Altyn Asyr concede fewer

    Merw concede 2.00 a game, Altyn Asyr 1.30.

  • Altyn Asyr games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Merw matches, against 55% for Altyn Asyr. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Merw
Altyn Asyr@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1375.5
ELO
1577.3
41
ELO · Matches
44
1375.5
Current Team ELO
1577.3
1577.3
Current Opponent ELO
1375.5
-201.8
Current ELO Difference
201.8
0.24
Expected score
0.76
41
History Matches
44
-0.15
Residual Mean
0.08
39.93
Overperformance
55.71
-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.40
0.40
Goals for per game
2.40
2.80
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.30
PPG
2.40
0.50
Goals for per game
2.10
3.30
Goals against per game
1.30
10.0%
Win rate
80.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
3.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
2.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.95
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
2.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
44
0.63
PPG
1.82
14.6%
Win rate
56.8%
19.5%
Draw rate
11.4%
65.9%
Loss rate
31.8%
70.7%
Over 1.5 rate
70.5%
43.9%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
26.8%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
23
0.80
PPG
1.87
20.0%
Win rate
60.9%
20.0%
Draw rate
4.3%
60.0%
Loss rate
34.8%
65.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
35.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.8%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
20
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.59
Goals for per game
1.84
43.9%
Scoring rate
79.5%
34.1%
BTTS rate
45.5%
0.65
Goals for per game
1.74
45.0%
Scoring rate
78.3%
35.0%
BTTS rate
39.1%
0.71
Goals for per game
1.75
52.9%
Scoring rate
81.3%
47.1%
BTTS rate
37.5%
41
History Matches
44
0.59
Goals Mean
1.84
0.76
Goals Std
1.41
43.9%
Scored 1+ rate
79.5%
12.2%
Scored 2+ rate
56.8%
2.4%
Scored 3+ rate
29.5%
0.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.74
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.00
Goals against per game
1.30
75.6%
Conceding rate
59.1%
1.55
Goals against per game
1.09
75.0%
Conceding rate
56.5%
2.71
Goals against per game
1.19
88.2%
Conceding rate
50.0%
41
History Matches
44
2.00
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.91
Conceded Std
1.66
53.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.3%
29.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.5%
1.55
Venue Conceded Mean
1.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
56.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
43.5%
55.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
56.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
43.5%
55.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
44
0.80
Result entropy
0.85
2.15
Goal Difference Std
2.10
20.34
Stability score
15.10
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
15
Eligible Matches
25
1
Lead Matches
9
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
7
Trailing Matches
6
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
15
Halftime Coverage Matches
25
0.20
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.05
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.80
18
Normal Rest History Matches
21
0.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.19
21
Long Rest History Matches
17
0.62
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
16
0.71
PPG
1.94
17.6%
Win rate
62.5%
17.6%
Draw rate
6.3%
64.7%
Loss rate
31.3%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
2.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
17
Current Competition Matches
16
0.71
Current Competition PPG
1.94
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.56
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.06
Portability PPG Std
0.12
0.12
Portability PPG Range
0.28
89.08
Portability Score
80.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-201.8
PPG-1.18
GF-1.26
GA0.70
PPG-1.23
PPG-1.07
PPG-1.80
PPG-2.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate35.6%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate33.3%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-1.26
Goals Std-0.65
Scored 1+ rate-0.36
Scored 2+ rate-0.45
Scored 3+ rate-0.27
Venue Goals Mean-1.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.70
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate26.4%
Conceded 3+ rate8.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.33
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score5.23
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.16
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.70
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-1.23
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.56
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.16
Portability Score8.44
Rest days0.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.20
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.69
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.15
Current Team ELO-201.8
Current Opponent ELO201.8
Current ELO Difference-403.6
Expected score-0.52
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.23
Overperformance-15.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.38

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Merw

L
Nebitci3–0Merw17 Oct · away
Pick: Nebitci 64% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Altyn Asyr

No earlier results with our pick yet

About this match

Merw and Altyn Asyr meet in Ýokary Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Merw win 9.5%, draw 13.9%, Altyn Asyr win 76.6%. The pick is Altyn Asyr win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.3%. Both teams to score: 38.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.