ScoreProb
AFC Champions League Two World Round 4 2026

Kuching FA vs Gangwon FC

Kuching FA Home · Elo 1,619
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gangwon FC Away · Elo 1,542
Stadium Taha Ariffin, Kuching Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gangwon FC win
Kuching FA win
33.3%
Draw
24.1%
Gangwon FC winPick
42.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.8%
No50.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%

How much we know

Kuching FA history47 matches
Gangwon FC history82 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 12:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Gangwon FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kuching FA are rated 77 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,619 against 1,542. On rating alone Kuching FA would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Kuching FA score far more

    1.85 goals a game over 47 matches for Kuching FA, against 1.02 over 82 for Gangwon FC.

  • Kuching FA concede fewer

    Kuching FA concede 0.89 a game, Gangwon FC 1.11.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Kuching FA matches, against 43% for Gangwon FC. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kuching FA
Gangwon FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1619.0
ELO
1541.6
47
ELO · Matches
82
1619.0
Current Team ELO
1541.6
1541.6
Current Opponent ELO
1619.0
77.39
Current ELO Difference
-77.39
0.61
Expected score
0.39
47
History Matches
82
0.12
Residual Mean
0.02
58.39
Overperformance
51.74
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.00
1.50
Goals for per game
0.80
1.10
Goals against per game
1.30
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
82
1.91
PPG
1.34
57.4%
Win rate
32.9%
19.1%
Draw rate
35.4%
23.4%
Loss rate
31.7%
76.6%
Over 1.5 rate
62.2%
48.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.7%
31.9%
Over 3.5 rate
17.1%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
43
2.27
PPG
1.23
72.7%
Win rate
32.6%
9.1%
Draw rate
25.6%
18.2%
Loss rate
41.9%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
58.1%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.9%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
14.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
22
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.85
Goals for per game
1.02
85.1%
Scoring rate
63.4%
46.8%
BTTS rate
42.7%
2.14
Goals for per game
0.93
90.9%
Scoring rate
60.5%
40.9%
BTTS rate
39.5%
47
History Matches
82
1.85
Goals Mean
1.02
1.49
Goals Std
0.99
85.1%
Scored 1+ rate
63.4%
48.9%
Scored 2+ rate
29.3%
27.7%
Scored 3+ rate
8.5%
2.14
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.89
Goals against per game
1.11
61.7%
Conceding rate
62.2%
0.64
Goals against per game
1.16
50.0%
Conceding rate
67.4%
47
History Matches
82
0.89
Conceded Mean
1.11
0.86
Conceded Std
1.13
23.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.7%
4.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.4%
0.64
Venue Conceded Mean
1.16
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
38.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
14.9%
Failed-to-score rate
36.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
39.5%
38.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
14.9%
Failed-to-score rate
36.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
39.5%
38.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
82
0.89
Result entropy
1.00
1.91
Goal Difference Std
1.47
11.27
Stability score
0.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
82
25
Lead Matches
23
84.0%
Lead Win Rate
78.3%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.83
9
Trailing Matches
20
44.4%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
15.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
82
0.94
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.97
Rest days
74.07
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
10
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
24
Normal Rest History Matches
51
2.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
21
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.29
1.21
Portability PPG Range
0.75
52.10
Portability Score
62.97
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
82
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO77.39
PPG0.57
GF0.83
GA-0.22
PPG1.04
PPG0.80
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-35
Clean-sheet rate0.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-21
Clean-sheet rate17.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches-35
Goals Mean0.83
Goals Std0.50
Scored 1+ rate21.7%
Scored 2+ rate19.7%
Scored 3+ rate19.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.22
History Matches-35
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std-0.27
Clean-sheet rate0.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.24
History Matches-35
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std0.45
Stability score11.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.19
Eligible Matches-35
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate5.7%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate4.4%
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-35
First Half Goals For Mean0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.46
Portability Score-10.87
Rest days1.90
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-9
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.60
Normal Rest History Matches-27
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.81
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.46
Current Team ELO77.39
Current Opponent ELO-77.39
Current ELO Difference154.8
Expected score0.22
History Matches-35
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance6.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kuching FA

L
Gangwon FC1–0Kuching FA29 Oct · away
Pick: Gangwon FC 48% · hit
L
Selangor2–1Kuching FA23 Oct · away
Pick: Selangor 57% · hit
L
DPMM FC Brunei3–2Kuching FA18 Oct · away
Pick: DPMM FC Brunei 52% · hit
D
Kuching FA1–1Kitchee15 Oct · home
Pick: Kuching FA 46% · missed
D
Kuching FA2–2Tampines Rovers7 Oct · home
Pick: Tampines Rovers 38% · missed

Gangwon FC

L
Ulsan Hyundai FC2–1Gangwon FC1 Nov · away
Pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 37% · hit
W
Gangwon FC1–0Kuching FA29 Oct · home
Pick: Gangwon FC 48% · hit
D
FC Seoul1–1Gangwon FC24 Oct · away
Pick: FC Seoul 46% · missed
D
Gangwon FC1–1Incheon United18 Oct · home
Pick: Gangwon FC 40% · missed
L
Gangwon FC1–2Phnom Penh Crown15 Oct · home
Pick: Gangwon FC 51% · missed

About this match

Kuching FA and Gangwon FC meet in AFC Champions League Two on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 12:15 UTC. The match is played at Stadium Taha Ariffin, Kuching. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Kuching FA win 33.3%, draw 24.1%, Gangwon FC win 42.5%. The pick is Gangwon FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.6%. Both teams to score: 49.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.