ScoreProb
AFC Champions League Two World Round 4 2026

Machida Zelvia vs Shanghai Shenhua

Machida Zelvia Home · Elo 1,668
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Shanghai Shenhua Away · Elo 1,574
Machida GION Stadium, Tokyo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Machida Zelvia win
Machida Zelvia winPick
54.9%
Draw
21.2%
Shanghai Shenhua win
23.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.4%
No46.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.4%
Under 2.543.6%

How much we know

Machida Zelvia history84 matches
Shanghai Shenhua history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Machida Zelvia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Machida Zelvia are rated 94 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,668 against 1,574. On rating alone Machida Zelvia would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Shanghai Shenhua score more

    1.48 goals a game over 84 matches for Machida Zelvia, against 1.92 over 75 for Shanghai Shenhua.

  • Machida Zelvia concede fewer

    Machida Zelvia concede 0.90 a game, Shanghai Shenhua 1.43.

  • Shanghai Shenhua games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of Machida Zelvia matches, against 63% for Shanghai Shenhua. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Machida Zelvia
Shanghai Shenhua
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1667.7
ELO
1573.6
84
ELO · Matches
75
1667.7
Current Team ELO
1573.6
1573.6
Current Opponent ELO
1667.7
94.11
Current ELO Difference
-94.11
0.63
Expected score
0.37
84
History Matches
75
0.10
Residual Mean
0.04
58.22
Overperformance
53.35
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.80
2.80
Goals for per game
2.20
0.60
Goals against per game
2.20
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.80
2.00
Goals for per game
2.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.90
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.89
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals
90
84
Matches
75
1.83
PPG
1.75
51.2%
Win rate
50.7%
29.8%
Draw rate
22.7%
19.0%
Loss rate
26.7%
65.5%
Over 1.5 rate
84.0%
48.8%
Over 2.5 rate
62.7%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
48.0%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
39
1.91
PPG
1.59
56.8%
Win rate
46.2%
20.5%
Draw rate
20.5%
22.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
65.9%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
52.3%
Over 2.5 rate
59.0%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
43.6%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
44
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.48
Goals for per game
1.92
76.2%
Scoring rate
81.3%
46.4%
BTTS rate
61.3%
1.41
Goals for per game
1.69
75.0%
Scoring rate
76.9%
43.2%
BTTS rate
59.0%
84
History Matches
75
1.48
Goals Mean
1.92
1.15
Goals Std
1.41
76.2%
Scored 1+ rate
81.3%
47.6%
Scored 2+ rate
57.3%
19.0%
Scored 3+ rate
36.0%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
1.69
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.90
Goals against per game
1.43
58.3%
Conceding rate
77.3%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.46
59.1%
Conceding rate
79.5%
84
History Matches
75
0.90
Conceded Mean
1.43
0.98
Conceded Std
1.10
23.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.3%
6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.7%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.7%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.7%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
84
History Matches
75
0.93
Result entropy
0.94
1.44
Goal Difference Std
1.75
7.22
Stability score
5.94
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
83
Eligible Matches
75
38
Lead Matches
27
78.9%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.83
7
Trailing Matches
21
14.3%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
19.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
83
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.04
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.98
Rest days
74.93
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
66
Normal Rest History Matches
47
1.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
15
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.63
1.42
Portability PPG Range
1.83
47.78
Portability Score
44.40
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
84
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO94.11
PPG0.09
GF-0.44
GA-0.52
PPG0.32
PPG0.80
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate19.0%
Failed-to-score rate5.1%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate20.4%
Failed-to-score rate1.9%
History Matches9
Goals Mean-0.44
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Goals Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.34
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.52
Conceded Std-0.11
Clean-sheet rate19.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.47
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.30
Stability score1.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.74
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate1.2%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-14
Non-loss rate-0.29
Trailing Win Rate-0.19
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.41
Portability Score3.37
Rest days-0.95
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.25
Normal Rest History Matches19
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.10
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.15
Current Team ELO94.11
Current Opponent ELO-94.11
Current ELO Difference188.2
Expected score0.26
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Machida Zelvia

D
Machida Zelvia0–0Gamba Osaka1 Nov · home
Pick: Machida Zelvia 55% · missed
W
Shanghai Shenhua0–1Machida Zelvia29 Oct · away
Pick: Machida Zelvia 50% · hit
D
Vissel Kobe0–0Machida Zelvia24 Oct · away
Pick: Machida Zelvia 40% · missed
W
Shimizu S-pulse0–5Machida Zelvia21 Oct · away
Pick: Machida Zelvia 58% · hit
W
Machida Zelvia3–0Avispa Fukuoka18 Oct · home
Pick: Machida Zelvia 63% · hit

Shanghai Shenhua

L
Shanghai Shenhua0–1Machida Zelvia29 Oct · home
Pick: Machida Zelvia 50% · hit
L
Sichuan Jiuniu2–1Shanghai Shenhua24 Oct · away
Pick: Shanghai Shenhua 47% · missed
W
Wuhan Three Towns1–3Shanghai Shenhua18 Oct · away
Pick: Shanghai Shenhua 43% · hit
D
Svay Rieng0–0Shanghai Shenhua15 Oct · away
Pick: Svay Rieng 43% · missed
L
Dalian Zhixing1–0Shanghai Shenhua1 Sep · away
Pick: Shanghai Shenhua 46% · missed

About this match

Machida Zelvia and Shanghai Shenhua meet in AFC Champions League Two on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. The match is played at Machida GION Stadium, Tokyo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Machida Zelvia win 54.9%, draw 21.2%, Shanghai Shenhua win 23.9%. The pick is Machida Zelvia win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.4%. Both teams to score: 53.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.