Kumba vs Tonnerre
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Kumba win
26.1%
DrawPick
37.3%
Tonnerre win
36.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.4%
No50.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.541.6%
Under 2.558.4%
How much we know
Kumba history17 matches
Tonnerre history32 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Draw
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,668 matches.
Why a draw is the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,505 against 1,491. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.06 goals a game over 17 matches for Kumba, against 1.16 over 32 for Tonnerre.
-
Tonnerre concede fewer
Kumba concede 1.47 a game, Tonnerre 1.16.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
41% of Kumba matches, against 41% for Tonnerre. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 21 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tonnerre@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1505.3
ELO
1491.1
17
ELO · Matches
32
1505.3
Current Team ELO
1491.1
1491.1
Current Opponent ELO
1505.3
14.20
Current ELO Difference
-14.20
0.52
Expected score
0.48
17
History Matches
32
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.01
50.43
Overperformance
49.51
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
2.80
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.50
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
1.70
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.95
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals 90
17
Matches
32
1.47
PPG
1.34
41.2%
Win rate
37.5%
23.5%
Draw rate
21.9%
35.3%
Loss rate
40.6%
58.8%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
41.2%
Over 2.5 rate
40.6%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
18.8%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals 100
8
Matches
15
2.25
PPG
1.20
75.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
46.7%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
13.3%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
8
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.06
Goals for per game
1.16
76.5%
Scoring rate
62.5%
58.8%
BTTS rate
34.4%
1.38
Goals for per game
0.93
87.5%
Scoring rate
60.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
26.7%
17
History Matches
32
1.06
Goals Mean
1.16
0.73
Goals Std
1.20
76.5%
Scored 1+ rate
62.5%
29.4%
Scored 2+ rate
31.3%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
15.6%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.47
Goals against per game
1.16
76.5%
Conceding rate
65.6%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.07
62.5%
Conceding rate
60.0%
17
History Matches
32
1.47
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.72
Conceded Std
1.09
17.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.4%
17.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
17
History Matches
32
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.84
2.30
Stability score
2.95
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
13
Eligible Matches
29
3
Lead Matches
8
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.92
4
Trailing Matches
10
0.0%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
13
Halftime Coverage Matches
29
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
141.1
Rest days
140.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
11
0.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.45
5
Normal Rest History Matches
7
1.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
7
Long Rest History Matches
13
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.03
—
Portability PPG Range
0.06
—
Portability Score
94.12
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
17
Clean History Matches
32
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO14.20
PPG0.13
GF-0.10
GA0.31
PPG1.05
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches-15
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std-0.48
Scored 1+ rate14.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.59
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean0.31
Conceded Std0.63
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate5.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.79
History Matches-15
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score-0.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.05
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate12.5%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.30
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days1.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.20
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match1.00
Current Team ELO14.20
Current Opponent ELO-14.20
Current ELO Difference28.40
Expected score0.04
History Matches-15
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance0.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Kumba and Tonnerre meet in Elite Two on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Kumba win 26.1%, draw 37.3%, Tonnerre win 36.6%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 41.6%. Both teams to score: 49.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.