ScoreProb
Veikkausliiga Finland Championship Group - 32 2026

KuPS vs Inter Turku

KuPS Home · Elo 1,634
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Inter Turku Away · Elo 1,701
Vare Areena, Kuopio Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: KuPS win
KuPS winPick
42.7%
Draw
30.6%
Inter Turku win
26.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.0%
No46.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.4%
Under 2.546.6%

How much we know

KuPS history98 matches
Inter Turku history80 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why KuPS are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Inter Turku are rated 67 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,701 against 1,634. On rating alone Inter Turku would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Inter Turku score more

    1.51 goals a game over 98 matches for KuPS, against 1.86 over 80 for Inter Turku.

  • Inter Turku concede fewer

    KuPS concede 1.11 a game, Inter Turku 0.94.

  • Inter Turku games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of KuPS matches, against 55% for Inter Turku. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
KuPS
Inter Turku
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1634.0
ELO
1701.4
98
ELO · Matches
80
1634.0
Current Team ELO
1701.4
1701.4
Current Opponent ELO
1634.0
-67.38
Current ELO Difference
67.38
0.40
Expected score
0.60
98
History Matches
80
0.06
Residual Mean
0.12
55.19
Overperformance
59.59
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.70
1.30
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
98
Matches
80
1.74
PPG
2.06
50.0%
Win rate
58.8%
24.5%
Draw rate
30.0%
25.5%
Loss rate
11.3%
75.5%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
43.9%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
47
Matches
41
1.98
PPG
2.00
59.6%
Win rate
56.1%
19.1%
Draw rate
31.7%
21.3%
Loss rate
12.2%
76.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.5%
44.7%
Over 2.5 rate
56.1%
29.8%
Over 3.5 rate
36.6%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
47
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.51
Goals for per game
1.86
72.4%
Scoring rate
86.3%
45.9%
BTTS rate
56.3%
1.72
Goals for per game
1.93
78.7%
Scoring rate
90.2%
48.9%
BTTS rate
58.5%
1.81
Goals for per game
1.33
90.5%
Scoring rate
71.4%
66.7%
BTTS rate
47.6%
98
History Matches
80
1.51
Goals Mean
1.86
1.34
Goals Std
1.35
72.4%
Scored 1+ rate
86.3%
44.9%
Scored 2+ rate
58.8%
23.5%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.72
Venue Goals Mean
1.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.11
Goals against per game
0.94
65.3%
Conceding rate
61.3%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.02
63.8%
Conceding rate
63.4%
1.05
Goals against per game
0.76
71.4%
Conceding rate
52.4%
98
History Matches
80
1.11
Conceded Mean
0.94
1.13
Conceded Std
0.95
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.8%
11.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.5%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.02
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.6%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
9.8%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
47.6%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.6%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
9.8%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
98
History Matches
80
0.95
Result entropy
0.84
1.79
Goal Difference Std
1.63
5.37
Stability score
16.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
97
Eligible Matches
80
33
Lead Matches
33
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
84.8%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.90
21
Trailing Matches
16
28.6%
Non-loss rate
62.5%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
31.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
97
Halftime Coverage Matches
80
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
18
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.83
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.83
60
Normal Rest History Matches
50
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.08
19
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.79
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
21
2.05
PPG
1.86
57.1%
Win rate
47.6%
33.3%
Draw rate
42.9%
9.5%
Loss rate
9.5%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
47.6%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
19.0%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.05
21
Current Competition Matches
21
2.05
Current Competition PPG
1.86
0.76
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.57
13
Competition Season Count
8
11
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.43
1.73
Portability PPG Range
1.14
45.09
Portability Score
53.51
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
98
Clean History Matches
80
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-67.38
PPG-0.32
GF-0.35
GA0.17
PPG0.19
PPG-0.02
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate13.8%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate11.5%
History Matches18
Goals Mean-0.35
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches18
Conceded Mean0.17
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate4.8%
Conceded 3+ rate3.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.23
History Matches18
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std0.15
Stability score-10.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.61
Eligible Matches17
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate6.1%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.34
Trailing Win Rate-0.26
Halftime Coverage Matches17
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.19
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.19
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count5
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.59
Portability Score-8.42
Rest days0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches12
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO-67.38
Current Opponent ELO67.38
Current ELO Difference-134.8
Expected score-0.19
History Matches18
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

KuPS

L
AC Oulu2–0KuPS1 Nov · away
Pick: KuPS 42% · missed
D
KuPS1–1Gnistan29 Oct · home
Pick: KuPS 53% · missed
D
HJK Helsinki2–2KuPS25 Oct · away
Pick: KuPS 42% · missed
L
Borac Banja Luka2–0KuPS22 Oct · away
Pick: KuPS 39% · missed
W
KuPS2–0VPS18 Oct · home
Pick: KuPS 52% · hit

Inter Turku

W
Inter Turku4–3Gnistan2 Nov · home
Pick: Inter Turku 52% · hit
L
Inter Turku2–4HJK Helsinki29 Oct · home
Pick: Inter Turku 49% · missed
W
VPS0–1Inter Turku24 Oct · away
Pick: Inter Turku 38% · hit
L
Inter Turku1–2AC Oulu17 Oct · home
Pick: Inter Turku 52% · missed
D
Gnistan0–0Inter Turku7 Oct · away
Pick: Inter Turku 38% · missed

About this match

KuPS and Inter Turku meet in Veikkausliiga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Vare Areena, Kuopio. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: KuPS win 42.7%, draw 30.6%, Inter Turku win 26.7%. The pick is KuPS win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.4%. Both teams to score: 54.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.