ScoreProb
Veikkausliiga Finland Championship Group - 32 2026

Gnistan vs VPS

Gnistan Home · Elo 1,562
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
VPS Away · Elo 1,552
Markku.fi Areena, Helsinki Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gnistan win
Gnistan winPick
43.2%
Draw
26.2%
VPS win
30.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.7%
No40.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.3%
Under 2.542.7%

How much we know

Gnistan history74 matches
VPS history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Gnistan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,562 against 1,552. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • VPS score more

    1.58 goals a game over 74 matches for Gnistan, against 1.89 over 71 for VPS.

  • VPS concede fewer

    Gnistan concede 1.66 a game, VPS 1.27.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of Gnistan matches, against 59% for VPS. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gnistan
VPS
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1561.6
ELO
1552.2
74
ELO · Matches
71
1561.6
Current Team ELO
1552.2
1552.2
Current Opponent ELO
1561.6
9.44
Current ELO Difference
-9.44
0.51
Expected score
0.49
74
History Matches
71
0.04
Residual Mean
0.03
52.85
Overperformance
52.22
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.30
1.80
Goals for per game
1.50
1.30
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
71
1.30
PPG
1.44
35.1%
Win rate
40.8%
24.3%
Draw rate
21.1%
40.5%
Loss rate
38.0%
86.5%
Over 1.5 rate
74.6%
62.2%
Over 2.5 rate
59.2%
43.2%
Over 3.5 rate
39.4%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
39
1.44
PPG
1.36
41.2%
Win rate
38.5%
20.6%
Draw rate
20.5%
38.2%
Loss rate
41.0%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
71.8%
67.6%
Over 2.5 rate
59.0%
47.1%
Over 3.5 rate
41.0%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.79
34
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.58
Goals for per game
1.89
75.7%
Scoring rate
77.5%
54.1%
BTTS rate
57.7%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.97
76.5%
Scoring rate
74.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
56.4%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.38
76.2%
Scoring rate
76.2%
52.4%
BTTS rate
57.1%
74
History Matches
71
1.58
Goals Mean
1.89
1.29
Goals Std
2.13
75.7%
Scored 1+ rate
77.5%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
39.4%
21.6%
Scored 3+ rate
23.9%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.66
Goals against per game
1.27
73.0%
Conceding rate
71.8%
1.65
Goals against per game
1.26
67.6%
Conceding rate
74.4%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.00
76.2%
Conceding rate
71.4%
74
History Matches
71
1.66
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.38
Conceded Std
1.03
55.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.8%
24.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
1.65
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
71
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
2.05
Goal Difference Std
2.54
1.93
Stability score
3.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
70
18
Lead Matches
23
72.2%
Lead Win Rate
78.3%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.83
27
Trailing Matches
17
29.6%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
23.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.80
50
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.80
22
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
21
1.67
PPG
1.57
47.6%
Win rate
42.9%
23.8%
Draw rate
28.6%
28.6%
Loss rate
28.6%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
61.9%
47.6%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
21
Current Competition Matches
21
1.67
Current Competition PPG
1.57
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.38
8
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.63
1.45
Portability PPG Range
1.90
49.43
Portability Score
44.44
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO9.44
PPG-0.14
GF-0.31
GA0.39
PPG0.10
PPG0.08
PPG0.80
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate1.8%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate6.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.31
Goals Std-0.84
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate10.6%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.13
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.39
Conceded Std0.34
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate14.6%
Conceded 3+ rate11.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.56
History Matches3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.50
Stability score-1.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.79
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate6.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.10
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.05
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.45
Portability Score4.98
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.14
Current Team ELO9.44
Current Opponent ELO-9.44
Current ELO Difference18.89
Expected score0.03
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gnistan

L
Inter Turku4–3Gnistan2 Nov · away
Pick: Inter Turku 52% · hit
D
KuPS1–1Gnistan29 Oct · away
Pick: KuPS 53% · missed
L
Gnistan3–4AC Oulu24 Oct · home
Pick: Gnistan 48% · missed
L
HJK Helsinki4–0Gnistan17 Oct · away
Pick: HJK Helsinki 52% · hit
L
VPS1–0Gnistan12 Oct · away
Pick: VPS 42% · hit

VPS

L
VPS0–4HJK Helsinki2 Nov · home
Pick: VPS 43% · missed
D
AC Oulu0–0VPS28 Oct · away
Pick: VPS 38% · missed
L
VPS0–1Inter Turku24 Oct · home
Pick: Inter Turku 38% · hit
L
KuPS2–0VPS18 Oct · away
Pick: KuPS 52% · hit
W
VPS1–0Gnistan12 Oct · home
Pick: VPS 42% · hit

About this match

Gnistan and VPS meet in Veikkausliiga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Markku.fi Areena, Helsinki. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Gnistan win 43.2%, draw 26.2%, VPS win 30.5%. The pick is Gnistan win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.3%. Both teams to score: 59.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.