ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 Spain Group 12 - 10 2026

Lanzarote vs Laguna de Duero

Lanzarote Home · Elo 1,500
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Laguna de Duero Away · Elo 1,434
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lanzarote win
Lanzarote winPick
68.8%
Draw
17.7%
Laguna de Duero win
13.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.6%
No56.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.6%
Under 2.540.4%

How much we know

Lanzarote history49 matches
Laguna de Duero history17 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Lanzarote are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lanzarote are rated 66 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,500 against 1,434. On rating alone Lanzarote would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Lanzarote score far more

    1.43 goals a game over 49 matches for Lanzarote, against 0.82 over 17 for Laguna de Duero.

  • Lanzarote concede fewer

    Lanzarote concede 1.00 a game, Laguna de Duero 2.06.

  • Laguna de Duero games more often go over 2.5 goals

    41% of Lanzarote matches, against 53% for Laguna de Duero. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lanzarote
Laguna de Duero
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.0
ELO
1433.8
49
ELO · Matches
17
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1433.8
1433.8
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
66.24
Current ELO Difference
-66.24
0.59
Expected score
0.41
49
History Matches
17
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.19
50.15
Overperformance
41.31
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.36
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.60
Goals for per game
0.60
0.60
Goals against per game
3.40
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.20
0.90
Goals for per game
0.70
0.70
Goals against per game
2.80
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.80
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
17
1.35
PPG
0.76
34.7%
Win rate
17.6%
30.6%
Draw rate
23.5%
34.7%
Loss rate
58.8%
77.6%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
40.8%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
20.4%
Over 3.5 rate
47.1%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
8
2.16
PPG
0.88
64.0%
Win rate
25.0%
24.0%
Draw rate
12.5%
12.0%
Loss rate
62.5%
64.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
48.0%
Over 2.5 rate
87.5%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
25
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.43
Goals for per game
0.82
69.4%
Scoring rate
58.8%
42.9%
BTTS rate
47.1%
2.12
Goals for per game
1.25
76.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
28.0%
BTTS rate
62.5%
49
History Matches
17
1.43
Goals Mean
0.82
1.58
Goals Std
0.98
69.4%
Scored 1+ rate
58.8%
30.6%
Scored 2+ rate
11.8%
20.4%
Scored 3+ rate
5.9%
2.12
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
2.06
65.3%
Conceding rate
76.5%
0.40
Goals against per game
2.88
40.0%
Conceding rate
87.5%
49
History Matches
17
1.00
Conceded Mean
2.06
0.90
Conceded Std
1.59
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
58.8%
6.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
41.2%
0.40
Venue Conceded Mean
2.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
17
1.00
Result entropy
0.87
2.14
Goal Difference Std
1.80
0.15
Stability score
12.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
17
15
Lead Matches
5
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.67
11
Trailing Matches
4
36.4%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.18
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.0
Rest days
546.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
27
Normal Rest History Matches
12
0.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.75
20
Long Rest History Matches
3
1.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.03
Portability PPG Std
—
0.05
Portability PPG Range
—
95.14
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
17
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO66.24
PPG0.58
GF0.61
GA-1.06
PPG1.29
PPG1.00
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches32
Clean-sheet rate11.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate47.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches32
Goals Mean0.61
Goals Std0.59
Scored 1+ rate10.6%
Scored 2+ rate18.8%
Scored 3+ rate14.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.87
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.30
History Matches32
Conceded Mean-1.06
Conceded Std-0.69
Clean-sheet rate11.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.30
Conceded 3+ rate-0.35
Venue Conceded Mean-2.48
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.61
History Matches32
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std0.34
Stability score-12.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.37
Eligible Matches32
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate26.7%
Lead Points Retention0.22
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate36.4%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches32
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.94
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-364.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches17
Long Rest Points Per Match0.95
Current Team ELO66.24
Current Opponent ELO-66.24
Current ELO Difference132.5
Expected score0.19
History Matches32
Residual Mean0.19
Overperformance8.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.43

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lanzarote

D
Real Unión de Tenerife1–1Lanzarote31 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 36% · hit
W
Lanzarote1–0Marino25 Oct · home
Pick: Lanzarote 42% · hit
D
Anaza1–1Lanzarote21 Oct · away
Pick: Anaza 36% · missed
L
Los Llanos3–0Lanzarote17 Oct · away
Pick: Lanzarote 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Laguna de Duero

L
Laguna de Duero0–3Estrella31 Oct · home
Pick: Estrella 39% · hit
L
Unión Sur Yaiza3–1Laguna de Duero24 Oct · away
Pick: Unión Sur Yaiza 61% · hit
L
Las Palmas III3–0Laguna de Duero21 Oct · away
Pick: Las Palmas III 63% · hit
D
Laguna de Duero1–1Playas Sotavento17 Oct · home
Pick: Laguna de Duero 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lanzarote and Laguna de Duero meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Lanzarote win 68.8%, draw 17.7%, Laguna de Duero win 13.4%. The pick is Lanzarote win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.6%. Both teams to score: 43.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.