ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 Spain Group 12 - 10 2026

Mensajero vs Marino

Mensajero Home · Elo 1,588
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Marino Away · Elo 1,448
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mensajero win
Mensajero winPick
51.8%
Draw
27.9%
Marino win
20.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.8%
No51.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.1%
Under 2.549.9%

How much we know

Mensajero history51 matches
Marino history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Mensajero are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mensajero are rated 139 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,588 against 1,448. On rating alone Mensajero would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Mensajero score more

    1.47 goals a game over 51 matches for Mensajero, against 1.21 over 48 for Marino.

  • Mensajero concede fewer

    Mensajero concede 0.92 a game, Marino 1.48.

  • Marino games more often go over 2.5 goals

    39% of Mensajero matches, against 52% for Marino. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 27 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mensajero
Marino
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1587.5
ELO
1448.3
51
ELO · Matches
48
1587.5
Current Team ELO
1448.3
1448.3
Current Opponent ELO
1587.5
139.3
Current ELO Difference
-139.3
0.69
Expected score
0.31
51
History Matches
48
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.06
55.91
Overperformance
45.99
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.20
0.80
Goals for per game
0.20
0.60
Goals against per game
2.60
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
0.50
0.70
Goals against per game
1.70
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
0.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.73
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
48
1.78
PPG
1.04
49.0%
Win rate
20.8%
31.4%
Draw rate
41.7%
19.6%
Loss rate
37.5%
62.7%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
39.2%
Over 2.5 rate
52.1%
27.5%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
25
2.24
PPG
0.88
68.0%
Win rate
16.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
12.0%
Loss rate
44.0%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
92.0%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.0%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
25
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.47
Goals for per game
1.21
74.5%
Scoring rate
64.6%
43.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
92.0%
Scoring rate
68.0%
56.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
51
History Matches
48
1.47
Goals Mean
1.21
1.24
Goals Std
1.26
74.5%
Scored 1+ rate
64.6%
43.1%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
21.6%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.20
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.92
Goals against per game
1.48
54.9%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.88
60.0%
Conceding rate
88.0%
51
History Matches
48
0.92
Conceded Mean
1.48
1.08
Conceded Std
1.35
23.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.8%
9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
45.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
35.4%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
45.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
35.4%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
45.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
48
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
1.51
Goal Difference Std
2.08
6.01
Stability score
3.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
47
15
Lead Matches
13
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
53.8%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.67
6
Trailing Matches
12
16.7%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.06
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
176.0
Rest days
104.7
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.08
20
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.00
Portability PPG Std
0.10
0.01
Portability PPG Range
0.19
99.44
Portability Score
83.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO139.3
PPG0.74
GF0.26
GA-0.56
PPG1.36
PPG1.60
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate20.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate28.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.26
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate9.9%
Scored 2+ rate9.8%
Scored 3+ rate9.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.04
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.56
Conceded Std-0.27
Clean-sheet rate20.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.95
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.57
Stability score2.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.70
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate26.2%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.53
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.19
Portability Score15.52
Rest days71.31
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.85
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.45
Current Team ELO139.3
Current Opponent ELO-139.3
Current ELO Difference278.5
Expected score0.38
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance9.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mensajero

L
Los Llanos3–1Mensajero31 Oct · away
Pick: Mensajero 48% · missed
D
Mensajero2–2UD San Fernando25 Oct · home
Pick: Mensajero 35% · missed
D
Las Palmas III2–2Mensajero17 Oct · away
Pick: Mensajero 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Marino

D
Marino1–1Villa Santa Brígida1 Nov · home
Pick: Marino 39% · missed
L
Lanzarote1–0Marino25 Oct · away
Pick: Lanzarote 42% · hit
W
Los Llanos1–2Marino21 Oct · away
Pick: Marino 36% · hit
W
Marino1–0Estrella18 Oct · home
Pick: Marino 55% · hit
W
Marino6–1Playas Sotavento4 Oct · home
Pick: Marino 65% · hit

About this match

Mensajero and Marino meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Mensajero win 51.8%, draw 27.9%, Marino win 20.3%. The pick is Mensajero win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.1%. Both teams to score: 48.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.