ScoreProb
Regionalliga - West Austria West - 15 2026

Lauterach vs Fügen

Lauterach Home · Elo 1,364
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fügen Away · Elo 1,553
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fügen win
Lauterach win
23.0%
Draw
13.2%
Fügen winPick
63.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.0%
No38.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.6%
Under 2.525.4%

How much we know

Lauterach history53 matches
Fügen history32 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Fügen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Fügen are rated 189 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,553 against 1,364. On rating alone Fügen would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.

  • Fügen score far more

    1.30 goals a game over 53 matches for Lauterach, against 2.25 over 32 for Fügen.

  • Fügen concede fewer

    Lauterach concede 2.42 a game, Fügen 1.56.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    75% of Lauterach matches, against 69% for Fügen. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lauterach
Fügen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1364.1
ELO
1553.4
53
ELO · Matches
32
1364.1
Current Team ELO
1553.4
1553.4
Current Opponent ELO
1364.1
-189.2
Current ELO Difference
189.2
0.25
Expected score
0.75
53
History Matches
32
-0.12
Residual Mean
0.08
41.00
Overperformance
55.11
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
2.60
3.20
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
1.90
1.60
Goals for per game
2.80
3.10
Goals against per game
1.40
10.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.80
1.74
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.72
3.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.16
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
32
0.77
PPG
1.78
20.8%
Win rate
56.3%
15.1%
Draw rate
9.4%
64.2%
Loss rate
34.4%
86.8%
Over 1.5 rate
84.4%
75.5%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
50.9%
Over 3.5 rate
62.5%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
16
1.22
PPG
1.56
33.3%
Win rate
50.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
6.3%
44.4%
Loss rate
43.8%
92.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
81.5%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
59.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
27
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.30
Goals for per game
2.25
64.2%
Scoring rate
87.5%
58.5%
BTTS rate
62.5%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.56
77.8%
Scoring rate
81.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
56.3%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
53
History Matches
32
1.30
Goals Mean
2.25
1.35
Goals Std
1.66
64.2%
Scored 1+ rate
87.5%
39.6%
Scored 2+ rate
62.5%
13.2%
Scored 3+ rate
40.6%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.42
Goals against per game
1.56
92.5%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.26
Goals against per game
1.63
88.9%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.75
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
53
History Matches
32
2.42
Conceded Mean
1.56
1.42
Conceded Std
1.41
67.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.6%
50.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
2.26
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
7.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
35.8%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
7.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
35.8%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
7.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
32
0.82
Result entropy
0.83
2.10
Goal Difference Std
2.47
18.39
Stability score
16.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
32
10
Lead Matches
17
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.82
29
Trailing Matches
10
10.3%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
3.4%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
32
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
1.03
1.17
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.22
1.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
13
0.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.31
23
Long Rest History Matches
17
0.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.41
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.25
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.25
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
7
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.24
1.04
Portability PPG Range
0.56
54.13
Portability Score
67.27
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
32
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-189.2
PPG-1.01
GF-0.95
GA0.85
PPG-1.25
PPG-0.34
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate23.3%
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate3.5%
History Matches21
Goals Mean-0.95
Goals Std-0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.23
Scored 2+ rate-0.23
Scored 3+ rate-0.27
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.02
History Matches21
Conceded Mean0.85
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate27.3%
Conceded 3+ rate25.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches21
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score1.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.04
Eligible Matches21
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches19
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches21
First Half Goals For Mean-0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.43
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.25
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.48
Portability Score-13.14
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.59
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.59
Current Team ELO-189.2
Current Opponent ELO189.2
Current ELO Difference-378.5
Expected score-0.50
History Matches21
Residual Mean-0.21
Overperformance-14.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lauterach

D
Lustenau1–1Lauterach31 Oct · away
Pick: Lauterach 47% · missed
W
Lauterach2–0Lochau24 Oct · home
Pick: Lauterach 49% · hit
W
SK St. Johann1–3Lauterach18 Oct · away
Pick: SK St. Johann 56% · missed
L
Swarovski Tirol II6–1Lauterach4 Oct · away
Pick: Swarovski Tirol II 59% · hit
L
Lauterach1–3Hohenems29 Aug · home
Pick: Hohenems 70% · hit

Fügen

W
Fügen2–1Röthis31 Oct · home
Pick: Fügen 53% · hit
L
Imst2–1Fügen23 Oct · away
Pick: Imst 68% · hit
W
Fügen4–2Rheindorf Altach II29 Aug · home
Pick: Fügen 62% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lauterach and Fügen meet in Regionalliga - West on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Lauterach win 23.0%, draw 13.2%, Fügen win 63.8%. The pick is Fügen win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.6%. Both teams to score: 62.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.