ScoreProb
Primera División Costa Rica Round 16 2026

LD Alajuelense vs Sporting San Jose

LD Alajuelense Home · Elo 1,593
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sporting San Jose Away · Elo 1,495
Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto, Alajuela Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: LD Alajuelense win
LD Alajuelense winPick
47.6%
Draw
32.0%
Sporting San Jose win
20.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.9%
No53.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.0%
Under 2.559.0%

How much we know

LD Alajuelense history85 matches
Sporting San Jose history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 17 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 02:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why LD Alajuelense are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • LD Alajuelense are rated 98 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,593 against 1,495. On rating alone LD Alajuelense would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • LD Alajuelense score more

    1.27 goals a game over 85 matches for LD Alajuelense, against 1.03 over 62 for Sporting San Jose.

  • LD Alajuelense concede fewer

    LD Alajuelense concede 0.78 a game, Sporting San Jose 1.21.

  • Sporting San Jose games more often go over 2.5 goals

    32% of LD Alajuelense matches, against 45% for Sporting San Jose. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
LD Alajuelense
Sporting San Jose
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1593.3
ELO
1495.2
85
ELO · Matches
62
1593.3
Current Team ELO
1495.2
1495.2
Current Opponent ELO
1593.3
98.05
Current ELO Difference
-98.05
0.64
Expected score
0.36
85
History Matches
62
0.05
Residual Mean
0.00
54.16
Overperformance
50.06
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.20
1.70
Goals for per game
1.00
0.90
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
85
Matches
62
1.68
PPG
1.23
43.5%
Win rate
32.3%
37.6%
Draw rate
25.8%
18.8%
Loss rate
41.9%
65.9%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
31.8%
Over 2.5 rate
45.2%
12.9%
Over 3.5 rate
16.1%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
30
1.79
PPG
1.27
47.6%
Win rate
33.3%
35.7%
Draw rate
26.7%
16.7%
Loss rate
40.0%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
26.2%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
9.5%
Over 3.5 rate
13.3%
1.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
42
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.27
Goals for per game
1.03
76.5%
Scoring rate
58.1%
48.2%
BTTS rate
45.2%
1.24
Goals for per game
1.00
76.2%
Scoring rate
53.3%
38.1%
BTTS rate
43.3%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
85
History Matches
62
1.27
Goals Mean
1.03
1.03
Goals Std
1.08
76.5%
Scored 1+ rate
58.1%
35.3%
Scored 2+ rate
32.3%
11.8%
Scored 3+ rate
11.3%
1.24
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.78
Goals against per game
1.21
58.8%
Conceding rate
74.2%
0.62
Goals against per game
1.27
47.6%
Conceding rate
73.3%
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
85
History Matches
62
0.78
Conceded Mean
1.21
0.77
Conceded Std
1.02
16.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.3%
2.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.3%
0.62
Venue Conceded Mean
1.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
41.9%
52.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
46.7%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
41.9%
52.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
46.7%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
85
History Matches
62
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.20
Goal Difference Std
1.58
4.95
Stability score
1.79
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
85
Eligible Matches
62
28
Lead Matches
14
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.79
10
Trailing Matches
16
50.0%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
85
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.08
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
20
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.15
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
52
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.21
12
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.81
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.60
0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.80
10
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.18
0.40
Portability PPG Range
0.48
73.66
Portability Score
73.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
85
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO98.05
PPG0.46
GF0.24
GA-0.43
PPG0.40
PPG0.52
PPG0.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches23
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate25.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches23
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate18.4%
Scored 2+ rate3.0%
Scored 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.55
History Matches23
Conceded Mean-0.43
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.65
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.63
History Matches23
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.38
Stability score3.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.42
Eligible Matches23
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate31.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches23
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range-0.08
Portability Score-0.01
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches17
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.85
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.38
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.52
Current Team ELO98.05
Current Opponent ELO-98.05
Current ELO Difference196.1
Expected score0.27
History Matches23
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance4.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

LD Alajuelense

D
Deportivo Saprissa0–0LD Alajuelense1 Nov · away
Pick: Deportivo Saprissa 48% · missed
W
LD Alajuelense2–1CD Motagua30 Oct · home
Pick: LD Alajuelense 39% · hit
W
LD Alajuelense1–0Perez Zeledon26 Oct · home
Pick: LD Alajuelense 68% · hit
D
CD Motagua0–0LD Alajuelense23 Oct · away
Pick: CD Motagua 44% · missed
W
Inter San Carlos2–3LD Alajuelense18 Oct · away
Pick: LD Alajuelense 44% · hit

Sporting San Jose

W
Sporting San Jose1–0CS Herediano1 Nov · home
Pick: Sporting San Jose 47% · hit
W
Escorpiones Belén2–4Sporting San Jose24 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting San Jose 40% · hit
D
Sporting San Jose3–3San Carlos20 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting San Jose 55% · missed
L
Deportivo Saprissa6–0Sporting San Jose16 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Saprissa 58% · hit
W
Sporting San Jose2–0Inter San Carlos29 Aug · home
Pick: Inter San Carlos 36% · missed

About this match

LD Alajuelense and Sporting San Jose meet in Primera División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 02:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto, Alajuela. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: LD Alajuelense win 47.6%, draw 32.0%, Sporting San Jose win 20.4%. The pick is LD Alajuelense win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.0%. Both teams to score: 46.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.