LDU de Quito vs Universidad Catolica
What we said before kickoff Result: Universidad Catolica win
LDU de Quito winPick
49.8%
Draw
29.8%
Universidad Catolica win Result
20.4%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickLDU de Quito win · 49.8%
What happenedUniversidad Catolica win · we gave it 20.4%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickUnder · 50.7%
What happenedOver · 3 goals
Missed Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 53.1%
What happenedYes · 1–2
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Universidad Catolica win. In our numbers it ranked third of the three.
20%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 4.9
on average A pick at 50% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
35'
GoalJ. Fajardo
Yellow cardM. Weigandt
37' 41'
Yellow cardL. Canga
Yellow cardR. Mina
49' Yellow cardJ. Pretell
57' SubstitutionL. Quinonez off · J. Carabali on
60' 62'
GoalL. Canga
GoalM. Estrada
66' SubstitutionF. Cornejo off · S. Gonzalez Baquero on
67' SubstitutionJ. Corozo off · A. Alvarado on
67' SubstitutionL. Rodriguez off · K. Velasco on
67' Yellow cardA. Alvarado
72' 77'
SubstitutionM. Diaz off · L. Moreno on
78'
SubstitutionJ. Cacciabue off · F. Martinez on
Red cardJ. Pretell
82' Yellow cardJ. Pretell
82' Yellow cardS. Gonzalez Baquero
90+2' 90+5'
Yellow cardJ. Fajardo
90+5'
SubstitutionE. Clavijo off · A. Rodriguez on
90+6'
Yellow cardL. Cueva
Both teams to score
Yes53.1%
No46.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.549.3%
Under 2.550.7%
How much we know
LDU de Quito history92 matches
Universidad Catolica history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
- Kickoff5 Nov · 00:00 UTC
- Full time: 1–2One of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.8%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.
Why LDU de Quito are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
LDU de Quito are rated 39 Elo points higher
Elo 1,607 against 1,567. On rating alone LDU de Quito would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
Universidad Catolica score more
1.48 goals a game over 92 matches for LDU de Quito, against 1.68 over 79 for Universidad Catolica.
-
LDU de Quito concede fewer
LDU de Quito concede 0.90 a game, Universidad Catolica 1.16.
-
Universidad Catolica games more often go over 2.5 goals
40% of LDU de Quito matches, against 51% for Universidad Catolica. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Universidad Catolica@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1606.6
ELO
1567.4
92
ELO · Matches
79
1606.6
Current Team ELO
1567.4
1567.4
Current Opponent ELO
1606.6
39.22
Current ELO Difference
-39.22
0.56
Expected score
0.44
92
History Matches
79
0.06
Residual Mean
0.04
54.90
Overperformance
53.05
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
2.40
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.70
1.40
Goals for per game
1.90
0.70
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.70
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals 90
92
Matches
79
1.73
PPG
1.56
48.9%
Win rate
41.8%
26.1%
Draw rate
30.4%
25.0%
Loss rate
27.8%
72.8%
Over 1.5 rate
79.7%
40.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.6%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
32.9%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals 100
48
Matches
41
2.06
PPG
1.27
60.4%
Win rate
31.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
31.7%
14.6%
Loss rate
36.6%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
78.0%
43.8%
Over 2.5 rate
41.5%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.8%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
48
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.48
Goals for per game
1.68
75.0%
Scoring rate
82.3%
44.6%
BTTS rate
60.8%
1.85
Goals for per game
1.34
81.3%
Scoring rate
78.0%
41.7%
BTTS rate
63.4%
3.50
Goals for per game
4.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
92
History Matches
79
1.48
Goals Mean
1.68
1.23
Goals Std
1.36
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
82.3%
45.7%
Scored 2+ rate
44.3%
19.6%
Scored 3+ rate
25.3%
1.85
Venue Goals Mean
1.34
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.90
Goals against per game
1.16
62.0%
Conceding rate
72.2%
0.77
Goals against per game
1.24
52.1%
Conceding rate
78.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
92
History Matches
79
0.90
Conceded Mean
1.16
0.91
Conceded Std
1.02
21.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.1%
4.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
0.77
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
38.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.7%
47.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
38.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.7%
47.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
38.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
92
History Matches
79
0.95
Result entropy
0.99
1.63
Goal Difference Std
1.72
4.71
Stability score
1.46
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
92
Eligible Matches
79
33
Lead Matches
20
87.9%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.93
20
Trailing Matches
22
30.0%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
15.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
92
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
73.00
Rest days
74.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.42
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.71
64
Normal Rest History Matches
53
1.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
15
Long Rest History Matches
18
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
1
2.00
PPG
3.00
50.0%
Win rate
100.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
3.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
1
2.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
9
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.47
0.22
Portability PPG Range
1.25
85.50
Portability Score
51.63
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
92
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO39.22
PPG0.17
GF-0.21
GA-0.26
PPG-1.00
PPG0.79
PPG0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate10.2%
Failed-to-score rate7.3%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate26.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches13
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate1.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.51
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.01
History Matches13
Conceded Mean-0.26
Conceded Std-0.11
Clean-sheet rate10.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.30
History Matches13
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score3.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.10
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate10.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.38
Portability PPG Range-1.03
Portability Score33.87
Rest days-1.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.15
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.56
Current Team ELO39.22
Current Opponent ELO-39.22
Current ELO Difference78.45
Expected score0.11
History Matches13
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
LDU de Quito
L
Independiente del Valle2–0LDU de Quito1 Nov · away
Pick: Independiente del Valle 54% · hit D
Universidad Catolica2–2LDU de Quito30 Oct · away
Pick: LDU de Quito 36% · missed L
LDU de Quito1–2Macara24 Oct · home
Pick: LDU de Quito 48% · missed L
Guayaquil City FC2–1LDU de Quito29 Aug · away
Pick: LDU de Quito 35% · missed W
LDU de Quito2–0Emelec24 Aug · home
Pick: LDU de Quito 62% · hit Universidad Catolica
L
Universidad Catolica1–2Aucas1 Nov · home
Pick: Universidad Catolica 55% · missed D
Universidad Catolica2–2LDU de Quito30 Oct · home
Pick: LDU de Quito 36% · missed D
Independiente del Valle2–2Universidad Catolica29 Aug · away
Pick: Independiente del Valle 57% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
LDU de Quito and Universidad Catolica finished 1–2 in Copa Ecuador on Thursday 5 November 2026. It was 0–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: LDU de Quito win 49.8%, draw 29.8%, Universidad Catolica win 20.4%. One of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.