ScoreProb
Campionato Primavera - 2 Italy Round 8 2026

Lecco U19 vs Sampdoria U19

Lecco U19 Home · Elo 1,565
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sampdoria U19 Away · Elo 1,520
Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Lecco Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lecco U19 win
Lecco U19 winPick
46.7%
Draw
17.9%
Sampdoria U19 win
35.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.8%
No34.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.7%
Under 2.526.3%

How much we know

Lecco U19 history34 matches
Sampdoria U19 history30 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Lecco U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lecco U19 are rated 45 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,565 against 1,520. On rating alone Lecco U19 would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.12 goals a game over 34 matches for Lecco U19, against 1.97 over 30 for Sampdoria U19.

  • Defences are close

    Lecco U19 concede 1.74 a game, Sampdoria U19 1.60.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    76% of Lecco U19 matches, against 73% for Sampdoria U19. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lecco U19
Sampdoria U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1565.4
ELO
1520.0
34
ELO · Matches
30
1565.4
Current Team ELO
1520.0
1520.0
Current Opponent ELO
1565.4
45.35
Current ELO Difference
-45.35
0.56
Expected score
0.44
34
History Matches
30
0.09
Residual Mean
0.03
55.88
Overperformance
51.99
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
2.20
2.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.90
2.30
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
30
1.88
PPG
1.50
55.9%
Win rate
43.3%
20.6%
Draw rate
20.0%
23.5%
Loss rate
36.7%
94.1%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
76.5%
Over 2.5 rate
73.3%
55.9%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
15
1.88
PPG
1.60
58.8%
Win rate
46.7%
11.8%
Draw rate
20.0%
29.4%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
82.4%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
58.8%
Over 3.5 rate
46.7%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
17
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.12
Goals for per game
1.97
94.1%
Scoring rate
83.3%
79.4%
BTTS rate
70.0%
2.29
Goals for per game
1.87
94.1%
Scoring rate
73.3%
82.4%
BTTS rate
46.7%
34
History Matches
30
2.12
Goals Mean
1.97
1.13
Goals Std
1.43
94.1%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
70.6%
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
32.4%
Scored 3+ rate
23.3%
2.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.87
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.74
Goals against per game
1.60
85.3%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.88
Goals against per game
1.40
88.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
34
History Matches
30
1.74
Conceded Mean
1.60
1.40
Conceded Std
1.20
44.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.7%
23.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
14.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
14.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
14.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
30
0.90
Result entropy
0.96
1.97
Goal Difference Std
2.09
9.79
Stability score
4.23
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
32
Eligible Matches
30
16
Lead Matches
10
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.83
4
Trailing Matches
10
0.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
32
Halftime Coverage Matches
30
1.16
First Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
168.0
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
19
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.63
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.94
14
Long Rest History Matches
11
2.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.46
—
Portability PPG Range
0.93
—
Portability Score
51.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
30
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO45.35
PPG0.38
GF0.15
GA0.14
PPG0.28
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std-0.29
Scored 1+ rate10.8%
Scored 2+ rate3.9%
Scored 3+ rate9.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.24
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate3.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.48
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.69
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score5.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.44
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate7.5%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-14.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match1.14
Current Team ELO45.35
Current Opponent ELO-45.35
Current ELO Difference90.70
Expected score0.13
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance3.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lecco U19

L
Cagliari U204–1Lecco U1928 Oct · away
Pick: Cagliari U20 67% · hit
W
Brescia U191–3Lecco U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Brescia U19 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sampdoria U19

D
Vicenza U192–2Sampdoria U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Vicenza U19 44% · missed
W
Sampdoria U195–1Brescia U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Brescia U19 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lecco U19 and Sampdoria U19 meet in Campionato Primavera - 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Lecco. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Lecco U19 win 46.7%, draw 17.9%, Sampdoria U19 win 35.3%. The pick is Lecco U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.7%. Both teams to score: 65.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.