ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone A Italy Girone A - 13 2026

Lecco vs Juventus U23

Lecco Home · Elo 1,516
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Juventus U23 Away · Elo 1,542
Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Lecco Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lecco win
Lecco winPick
40.4%
Draw
28.8%
Juventus U23 win
30.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.3%
No55.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.537.5%
Under 2.562.5%

How much we know

Lecco history63 matches
Juventus U23 history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Lecco are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Juventus U23 are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,542 against 1,516. On rating alone Juventus U23 would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Juventus U23 score more

    1.06 goals a game over 63 matches for Lecco, against 1.37 over 59 for Juventus U23.

  • Lecco concede fewer

    Lecco concede 0.95 a game, Juventus U23 1.08.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    33% of Lecco matches, against 41% for Juventus U23. The model puts this match at 37% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lecco
Juventus U23
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1516.2
ELO
1542.3
63
ELO · Matches
59
1516.2
Current Team ELO
1542.3
1542.3
Current Opponent ELO
1516.2
-26.03
Current ELO Difference
26.03
0.46
Expected score
0.54
63
History Matches
59
0.02
Residual Mean
0.04
51.24
Overperformance
52.74
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.50
0.90
Goals for per game
1.20
1.50
Goals against per game
1.10
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
59
1.44
PPG
1.54
36.5%
Win rate
40.7%
34.9%
Draw rate
32.2%
28.6%
Loss rate
27.1%
55.6%
Over 1.5 rate
67.8%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
40.7%
15.9%
Over 3.5 rate
25.4%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
29
1.61
PPG
1.17
42.4%
Win rate
24.1%
33.3%
Draw rate
44.8%
24.2%
Loss rate
31.0%
51.5%
Over 1.5 rate
72.4%
36.4%
Over 2.5 rate
37.9%
15.2%
Over 3.5 rate
20.7%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
33
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.06
Goals for per game
1.37
63.5%
Scoring rate
79.7%
41.3%
BTTS rate
54.2%
1.09
Goals for per game
1.24
57.6%
Scoring rate
75.9%
36.4%
BTTS rate
62.1%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
63
History Matches
59
1.06
Goals Mean
1.37
1.13
Goals Std
1.07
63.5%
Scored 1+ rate
79.7%
27.0%
Scored 2+ rate
40.7%
9.5%
Scored 3+ rate
10.2%
1.09
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.95
Goals against per game
1.08
63.5%
Conceding rate
66.1%
0.82
Goals against per game
1.17
57.6%
Conceding rate
75.9%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
63
History Matches
59
0.95
Conceded Mean
1.08
0.93
Conceded Std
1.03
22.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.5%
9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.5%
0.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
36.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.3%
42.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
42.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
36.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.3%
42.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
42.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
59
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.40
Goal Difference Std
1.32
0.49
Stability score
1.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
59
22
Lead Matches
19
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
73.7%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.79
14
Trailing Matches
16
28.6%
Non-loss rate
31.3%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.77
Rest days
77.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.20
38
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.69
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
7
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.05
0.48
Portability PPG Range
0.10
71.56
Portability Score
90.75
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-26.03
PPG-0.10
GF-0.31
GA-0.13
PPG-2.00
PPG0.43
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate2.6%
Failed-to-score rate16.2%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate18.3%
Failed-to-score rate18.3%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.31
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.30
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate2.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate1.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.45
History Matches4
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score-0.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.45
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.38
Portability Score-19.19
Rest days-0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.80
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Current Team ELO-26.03
Current Opponent ELO26.03
Current ELO Difference-52.05
Expected score-0.07
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lecco

W
Dolomiti Bellunesi0–4Lecco1 Nov · away
Pick: Dolomiti Bellunesi 45% · missed
D
Lecco2–2Folgore Caratese25 Oct · home
Pick: Lecco 54% · missed
W
PRO Vercelli0–5Lecco16 Oct · away
Pick: PRO Vercelli 43% · missed
D
Lecco2–2Union Brescia4 Oct · home
Pick: Lecco 36% · missed
L
Treviso1–0Lecco31 Aug · away
Pick: Lecco 36% · missed

Juventus U23

D
Juventus U231–1PRO Vercelli2 Nov · home
Pick: Juventus U23 51% · missed
L
Trento2–1Juventus U2325 Oct · away
Pick: Trento 42% · hit
W
Juventus U232–1Renate19 Oct · home
Pick: Juventus U23 46% · hit
D
Juventus U230–0Lumezzane13 Oct · home
Pick: Juventus U23 55% · missed
D
Athletic Carpi3–3Juventus U2330 Aug · away
Pick: Juventus U23 42% · missed

About this match

Lecco and Juventus U23 meet in Serie C - Girone A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Lecco. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Lecco win 40.4%, draw 28.8%, Juventus U23 win 30.8%. The pick is Lecco win. Over 2.5 goals: 37.5%. Both teams to score: 44.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.