ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone A Italy Girone A - 13 2026

Folgore Caratese vs Athletic Carpi

Folgore Caratese Home · Elo 1,576
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Athletic Carpi Away · Elo 1,473
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Folgore Caratese win
Folgore Caratese winPick
53.6%
Draw
26.6%
Athletic Carpi win
19.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.8%
No47.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.9%
Under 2.548.1%

How much we know

Folgore Caratese history56 matches
Athletic Carpi history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Folgore Caratese are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Folgore Caratese are rated 103 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,576 against 1,473. On rating alone Folgore Caratese would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Folgore Caratese score far more

    1.61 goals a game over 56 matches for Folgore Caratese, against 1.02 over 57 for Athletic Carpi.

  • Folgore Caratese concede fewer

    Folgore Caratese concede 1.05 a game, Athletic Carpi 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Folgore Caratese matches, against 39% for Athletic Carpi. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Folgore Caratese
Athletic Carpi
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1576.1
ELO
1472.7
56
ELO · Matches
57
1576.1
Current Team ELO
1472.7
1472.7
Current Opponent ELO
1576.1
103.4
Current ELO Difference
-103.4
0.64
Expected score
0.36
56
History Matches
57
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.02
54.84
Overperformance
48.44
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.40
1.30
Goals for per game
1.40
1.30
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.84
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
57
1.70
PPG
1.19
44.6%
Win rate
31.6%
35.7%
Draw rate
24.6%
19.6%
Loss rate
43.9%
80.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.2%
46.4%
Over 2.5 rate
38.6%
26.8%
Over 3.5 rate
17.5%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
28
1.82
PPG
1.29
50.0%
Win rate
39.3%
32.1%
Draw rate
10.7%
17.9%
Loss rate
50.0%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
67.9%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
46.4%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
28
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.61
Goals for per game
1.02
83.9%
Scoring rate
68.4%
58.9%
BTTS rate
47.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.11
89.3%
Scoring rate
75.0%
64.3%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
57
1.61
Goals Mean
1.02
1.28
Goals Std
0.87
83.9%
Scored 1+ rate
68.4%
44.6%
Scored 2+ rate
28.1%
16.1%
Scored 3+ rate
5.3%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.11
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.05
Goals against per game
1.30
66.1%
Conceding rate
73.7%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.50
67.9%
Conceding rate
67.9%
2.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
57
1.05
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.06
Conceded Std
1.06
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.4%
10.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.3%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
57
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
1.74
Goal Difference Std
1.37
4.66
Stability score
2.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
57
21
Lead Matches
11
90.5%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.85
11
Trailing Matches
18
54.5%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.90
Rest days
78.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.92
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.94
14
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.64
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
8
Competition Season Count
7
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.05
0.37
Portability PPG Range
0.09
73.01
Portability Score
91.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO103.4
PPG0.50
GF0.59
GA-0.24
PPG0.00
PPG0.54
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.59
Goals Std0.41
Scored 1+ rate15.5%
Scored 2+ rate16.6%
Scored 3+ rate10.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.89
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.33
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.01
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.37
Stability score2.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.37
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate8.7%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate43.4%
Trailing Win Rate3.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.14
Portability PPG Range0.28
Portability Score-18.68
Rest days-3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.98
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Current Team ELO103.4
Current Opponent ELO-103.4
Current ELO Difference206.7
Expected score0.29
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Folgore Caratese

L
Folgore Caratese0–4Union Brescia1 Nov · home
Pick: Folgore Caratese 40% · missed
D
Lecco2–2Folgore Caratese25 Oct · away
Pick: Lecco 54% · missed
L
Folgore Caratese0–2Treviso17 Oct · home
Pick: Folgore Caratese 45% · missed
D
Novara2–2Folgore Caratese31 Aug · away
Pick: Novara 41% · missed
L
Folgore Caratese1–2Dolomiti Bellunesi24 Aug · home
Pick: Folgore Caratese 39% · missed

Athletic Carpi

L
Athletic Carpi0–5Renate1 Nov · home
Pick: Renate 34% · hit
W
Alcione1–2Athletic Carpi24 Oct · away
Pick: Alcione 58% · missed
W
Athletic Carpi3–1Lumezzane17 Oct · home
Pick: Athletic Carpi 37% · hit
D
Athletic Carpi3–3Juventus U2330 Aug · home
Pick: Juventus U23 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Folgore Caratese and Athletic Carpi meet in Serie C - Girone A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Folgore Caratese win 53.6%, draw 26.6%, Athletic Carpi win 19.9%. The pick is Folgore Caratese win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.9%. Both teams to score: 52.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.