ScoreProb
Premier League England Round 10 2026

Leeds vs Tottenham

Leeds Home · Elo 1,627
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tottenham Away · Elo 1,547
Elland Road, Leeds Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Leeds win
Leeds winPick
51.0%
Draw
22.2%
Tottenham win
26.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.4%
No50.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.9%
Under 2.541.1%

How much we know

Leeds history74 matches
Tottenham history90 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Leeds are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Leeds are rated 80 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,627 against 1,547. On rating alone Leeds would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Leeds score more

    1.62 goals a game over 74 matches for Leeds, against 1.37 over 90 for Tottenham.

  • Leeds concede fewer

    Leeds concede 1.12 a game, Tottenham 1.44.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of Leeds matches, against 56% for Tottenham. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Leeds
Tottenham
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1627.3
ELO
1547.3
74
ELO · Matches
90
1627.3
Current Team ELO
1547.3
1547.3
Current Opponent ELO
1627.3
80.03
Current ELO Difference
-80.03
0.61
Expected score
0.39
74
History Matches
90
0.08
Residual Mean
0.02
55.91
Overperformance
51.92
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
0.20
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
0.90
Goals against per game
1.10
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
90
1.61
PPG
1.31
41.9%
Win rate
35.6%
35.1%
Draw rate
24.4%
23.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
75.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
47
1.91
PPG
1.26
54.5%
Win rate
34.0%
27.3%
Draw rate
23.4%
18.2%
Loss rate
42.6%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
78.7%
57.6%
Over 2.5 rate
51.1%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
29.8%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
33
History Matches
47
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.62
Goals for per game
1.37
77.0%
Scoring rate
78.9%
52.7%
BTTS rate
52.2%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.26
81.8%
Scoring rate
70.2%
48.5%
BTTS rate
44.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
74
History Matches
90
1.62
Goals Mean
1.37
1.43
Goals Std
1.02
77.0%
Scored 1+ rate
78.9%
45.9%
Scored 2+ rate
41.1%
23.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.4%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.12
Goals against per game
1.44
67.6%
Conceding rate
70.0%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.57
60.6%
Conceding rate
68.1%
0.00
Goals against per game
3.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
74
History Matches
90
1.12
Conceded Mean
1.44
1.11
Conceded Std
1.33
27.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.6%
12.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.6%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
23.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.8%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
23.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.8%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
90
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.94
Goal Difference Std
1.81
2.61
Stability score
1.83
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
90
27
Lead Matches
30
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.84
17
Trailing Matches
31
52.9%
Non-loss rate
16.1%
29.4%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
90
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.73
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
16
1.71
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.06
46
Normal Rest History Matches
57
1.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
20
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.85
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
10
Competition Season Count
12
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.53
1.33
Portability PPG Range
1.50
49.76
Portability Score
48.44
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
90
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO80.03
PPG0.30
GF0.25
GA-0.32
PPG3.00
PPG0.65
PPG1.40
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Failed-to-score rate1.9%
History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-16
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std0.41
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate4.8%
Scored 3+ rate8.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.74
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.65
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean-0.32
Conceded Std-0.21
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.28
History Matches-16
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.13
Stability score0.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.51
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-14
Non-loss rate36.8%
Trailing Win Rate29.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.17
Portability Score1.32
Rest days-3.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-9
Short Rest Points Per Match0.65
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.48
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Current Team ELO80.03
Current Opponent ELO-80.03
Current ELO Difference160.1
Expected score0.23
History Matches-16
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Leeds

L
Bournemouth2–0Leeds31 Oct · away
Pick: Leeds 41% · missed
D
Sunderland0–0Leeds25 Oct · away
Pick: Leeds 38% · missed
D
Leeds1–1Manchester United18 Oct · home
Pick: Leeds 56% · missed
D
Leeds1–1Brentford30 Aug · home
Pick: Leeds 39% · missed
W
Nottingham Forest0–2Leeds25 Aug · away
Pick: Nottingham Forest 47% · missed

Tottenham

W
Tottenham2–0Crystal Palace31 Oct · home
Pick: Tottenham 40% · hit
W
Chelsea0–2Tottenham24 Oct · away
Pick: Chelsea 59% · missed
W
Tottenham3–1Coventry19 Oct · home
Pick: Tottenham 49% · hit
L
Tottenham0–2Newcastle29 Aug · home
Pick: Tottenham 39% · missed
W
Tottenham5–1Charlton26 Aug · home
Pick: Tottenham 49% · hit

About this match

Leeds and Tottenham meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Elland Road, Leeds. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Leeds win 51.0%, draw 22.2%, Tottenham win 26.8%. The pick is Leeds win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.9%. Both teams to score: 49.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.