ScoreProb
II Liga - East Poland Round 15 2026

Legia Warszawa II vs Olimpia Grudziądz

Legia Warszawa II Home · Elo 1,611
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Olimpia Grudziądz Away · Elo 1,621
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Legia Warszawa II win
Legia Warszawa II winPick
50.7%
Draw
19.7%
Olimpia Grudziądz win
29.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.6%
No40.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.7%
Under 2.538.3%

How much we know

Legia Warszawa II history62 matches
Olimpia Grudziądz history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Legia Warszawa II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,611 against 1,621. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Legia Warszawa II score more

    2.16 goals a game over 62 matches for Legia Warszawa II, against 1.79 over 72 for Olimpia Grudziądz.

  • Legia Warszawa II concede fewer

    Legia Warszawa II concede 1.08 a game, Olimpia Grudziądz 1.38.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    66% of Legia Warszawa II matches, against 63% for Olimpia Grudziądz. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Legia Warszawa II
Olimpia Grudziądz
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1611.3
ELO
1621.2
62
ELO · Matches
72
1611.3
Current Team ELO
1621.2
1621.2
Current Opponent ELO
1611.3
-9.86
Current ELO Difference
9.86
0.49
Expected score
0.51
62
History Matches
72
0.09
Residual Mean
0.08
56.49
Overperformance
56.30
-0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
2.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.10
1.70
Goals for per game
2.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
72
2.03
PPG
1.74
62.9%
Win rate
48.6%
14.5%
Draw rate
27.8%
22.6%
Loss rate
23.6%
85.5%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
66.1%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
38.7%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
37
2.32
PPG
1.59
74.2%
Win rate
40.5%
9.7%
Draw rate
37.8%
16.1%
Loss rate
21.6%
87.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.1%
64.5%
Over 2.5 rate
62.2%
38.7%
Over 3.5 rate
43.2%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
31
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.16
Goals for per game
1.79
82.3%
Scoring rate
87.5%
51.6%
BTTS rate
65.3%
2.52
Goals for per game
1.70
80.6%
Scoring rate
89.2%
48.4%
BTTS rate
70.3%
2.40
Goals for per game
1.40
60.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
62
History Matches
72
2.16
Goals Mean
1.79
1.66
Goals Std
1.22
82.3%
Scored 1+ rate
87.5%
62.9%
Scored 2+ rate
56.9%
37.1%
Scored 3+ rate
23.6%
2.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.08
Goals against per game
1.38
62.9%
Conceding rate
73.6%
0.90
Goals against per game
1.35
64.5%
Conceding rate
75.7%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
62
History Matches
72
1.08
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.04
Conceded Std
1.22
32.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
12.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.1%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
17.7%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
10.8%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
17.7%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
10.8%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
72
0.83
Result entropy
0.95
2.15
Goal Difference Std
1.66
17.37
Stability score
4.67
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
69
28
Lead Matches
19
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
78.9%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.84
17
Trailing Matches
13
41.2%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
1.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
37
2.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
29
Long Rest History Matches
32
1.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
3.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.20
Current Competition PPG
1.60
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.20
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.30
1.30
Portability PPG Range
0.89
47.96
Portability Score
62.18
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-9.86
PPG0.30
GF0.37
GA-0.29
PPG-0.40
PPG0.73
PPG-0.60
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate10.7%
Failed-to-score rate5.2%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate11.2%
Failed-to-score rate8.5%
History Matches-10
Goals Mean0.37
Goals Std0.43
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate6.0%
Scored 3+ rate13.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.81
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.99
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate10.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.18
History Matches-10
Result entropy-0.13
Goal Difference Std0.49
Stability score12.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.09
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate21.1%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate2.7%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.20
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.24
Portability PPG Range0.42
Portability Score-14.22
Rest days0.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.50
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.62
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO-9.86
Current Opponent ELO9.86
Current ELO Difference-19.73
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-10
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.46

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Legia Warszawa II

W
Legia Warszawa II2–1Resovia Rzeszów31 Oct · home
Pick: Legia Warszawa II 60% · hit
W
Chojniczanka Chojnice2–3Legia Warszawa II24 Oct · away
Pick: Legia Warszawa II 44% · hit
L
Legia Warszawa II1–2Tychy 7117 Oct · home
Pick: Legia Warszawa II 45% · missed
D
Śląsk Wrocław II2–2Legia Warszawa II14 Oct · away
Pick: Legia Warszawa II 40% · missed
L
Zawisza Bydgoszcz4–1Legia Warszawa II29 Aug · away
Pick: Zawisza Bydgoszcz 56% · hit

Olimpia Grudziądz

L
Sandecja Nowy Sącz2–1Olimpia Grudziądz30 Oct · away
Pick: Sandecja Nowy Sącz 43% · hit
L
Olimpia Grudziądz0–1Nieciecza27 Oct · home
Pick: Olimpia Grudziądz 42% · missed
W
Hutnik Kraków1–2Olimpia Grudziądz24 Oct · away
Pick: Hutnik Kraków 55% · missed
D
Świt Skolwin1–1Olimpia Grudziądz17 Oct · away
Pick: Olimpia Grudziądz 51% · missed
W
Olimpia Grudziądz1–0Resovia Rzeszów12 Oct · home
Pick: Olimpia Grudziądz 54% · hit

About this match

Legia Warszawa II and Olimpia Grudziądz meet in II Liga - East on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Legia Warszawa II win 50.7%, draw 19.7%, Olimpia Grudziądz win 29.5%. The pick is Legia Warszawa II win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.7%. Both teams to score: 59.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.