ScoreProb
Esiliiga B Estonia Round 36 2026

Legion vs Tallinna Kalev II

Legion Home · Elo 1,362
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tallinna Kalev II Away · Elo 1,407
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tallinna Kalev II win
Legion win
27.3%
Draw
14.6%
Tallinna Kalev II winPick
58.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.6%
No33.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.578.2%
Under 2.521.8%

How much we know

Legion history63 matches
Tallinna Kalev II history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Tallinna Kalev II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tallinna Kalev II are rated 46 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,407 against 1,362. On rating alone Tallinna Kalev II would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Tallinna Kalev II score more

    1.49 goals a game over 63 matches for Legion, against 1.80 over 69 for Tallinna Kalev II.

  • Tallinna Kalev II concede fewer

    Legion concede 2.94 a game, Tallinna Kalev II 2.43.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    76% of Legion matches, against 81% for Tallinna Kalev II. The model puts this match at 78% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Legion
Tallinna Kalev II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1361.6
ELO
1407.4
63
ELO · Matches
69
1361.6
Current Team ELO
1407.4
1407.4
Current Opponent ELO
1361.6
-45.80
Current ELO Difference
45.80
0.43
Expected score
0.57
63
History Matches
69
-0.12
Residual Mean
-0.06
41.25
Overperformance
45.03
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
2.20
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
1.20
1.30
Goals for per game
2.20
3.30
Goals against per game
2.70
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
3.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.70
2.76
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.65
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.06
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
69
0.97
PPG
0.90
28.6%
Win rate
21.7%
11.1%
Draw rate
24.6%
60.3%
Loss rate
53.6%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
94.2%
76.2%
Over 2.5 rate
81.2%
61.9%
Over 3.5 rate
65.2%
2.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
35
1.00
PPG
0.80
27.6%
Win rate
17.1%
17.2%
Draw rate
28.6%
55.2%
Loss rate
54.3%
89.7%
Over 1.5 rate
94.3%
72.4%
Over 2.5 rate
77.1%
58.6%
Over 3.5 rate
65.7%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
29
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.49
Goals for per game
1.80
68.3%
Scoring rate
79.7%
58.7%
BTTS rate
72.5%
1.45
Goals for per game
1.60
72.4%
Scoring rate
82.9%
58.6%
BTTS rate
77.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
56.5%
Scoring rate
88.0%
52.2%
BTTS rate
88.0%
63
History Matches
69
1.49
Goals Mean
1.80
1.44
Goals Std
1.62
68.3%
Scored 1+ rate
79.7%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
46.4%
23.8%
Scored 3+ rate
26.1%
1.45
Venue Goals Mean
1.60
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.94
Goals against per game
2.43
90.5%
Conceding rate
92.8%
2.38
Goals against per game
2.71
86.2%
Conceding rate
94.3%
3.65
Goals against per game
2.48
95.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
63
History Matches
69
2.94
Conceded Mean
2.43
2.31
Conceded Std
1.55
71.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
68.1%
49.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
44.9%
2.38
Venue Conceded Mean
2.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
7.2%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.3%
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
5.7%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
4.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
43.5%
Failed-to-score rate
12.0%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
7.2%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.3%
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
5.7%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
7.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
69
0.83
Result entropy
0.92
2.96
Goal Difference Std
2.54
17.44
Stability score
7.97
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
68
13
Lead Matches
19
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
57.9%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.68
29
Trailing Matches
28
17.2%
Non-loss rate
32.1%
3.4%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
1.22
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.13
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
1.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.29
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.77
Rest days
74.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.40
30
Normal Rest History Matches
35
0.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.86
27
Long Rest History Matches
28
0.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.96
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
25
0.61
PPG
0.80
17.4%
Win rate
20.0%
8.7%
Draw rate
20.0%
73.9%
Loss rate
60.0%
87.0%
Over 1.5 rate
96.0%
73.9%
Over 2.5 rate
84.0%
60.9%
Over 3.5 rate
68.0%
3.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
23
Current Competition Matches
25
0.61
Current Competition PPG
0.80
-2.65
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.48
6
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.32
Portability PPG Std
0.58
0.65
Portability PPG Range
1.25
60.66
Portability Score
46.39
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-45.80
PPG0.07
GF-0.31
GA0.50
PPG-0.19
PPG0.20
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate2.3%
Failed-to-score rate11.5%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate8.1%
Failed-to-score rate10.4%
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.31
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.43
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.50
Conceded Std0.76
Clean-sheet rate2.3%
Conceded 2+ rate3.3%
Conceded 3+ rate4.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.27
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.42
Stability score9.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.58
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate26.7%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-0.19
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.17
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-0.60
Portability Score14.27
Rest days0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.40
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.08
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO-45.80
Current Opponent ELO45.80
Current ELO Difference-91.60
Expected score-0.13
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Legion

W
Narva U210–3Legion31 Oct · away
Pick: Narva U21 83% · missed
L
Legion0–4Johvi Phoenix24 Oct · home
Pick: Johvi Phoenix 72% · hit
L
Luunja11–0Legion19 Oct · away
Pick: Luunja 62% · hit
L
Legion1–5Parnu JK Vaprus U2130 Aug · home
Pick: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 67% · hit
L
Levadia U191–0Legion24 Aug · away
Pick: Levadia U19 88% · hit

Tallinna Kalev II

W
Tallinna Kalev II3–2Tartu Kalev2 Nov · home
Pick: Tartu Kalev 52% · missed
L
Tallinna Kalev II2–3Luunja25 Oct · home
Pick: Tallinna Kalev II 43% · missed
L
Levadia U193–1Tallinna Kalev II18 Oct · away
Pick: Levadia U19 63% · hit
W
Tallinna Kalev II2–1Tulevik30 Aug · home
Pick: Tallinna Kalev II 50% · hit
D
Tartu Kalev1–1Tallinna Kalev II25 Aug · away
Pick: Tartu Kalev 61% · missed

About this match

Legion and Tallinna Kalev II meet in Esiliiga B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Legion win 27.3%, draw 14.6%, Tallinna Kalev II win 58.1%. The pick is Tallinna Kalev II win. Over 2.5 goals: 78.2%. Both teams to score: 66.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.