ScoreProb
Esiliiga B Estonia Round 36 2026

Luunja vs Tartu Kalev

Luunja Home · Elo 1,438
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tartu Kalev Away · Elo 1,532
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tartu Kalev win
Luunja win
39.4%
Draw
17.6%
Tartu Kalev winPick
42.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.9%
No38.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.576.8%
Under 2.523.2%

How much we know

Luunja history59 matches
Tartu Kalev history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Tartu Kalev are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tartu Kalev are rated 94 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,532 against 1,438. On rating alone Tartu Kalev would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Tartu Kalev score more

    1.73 goals a game over 59 matches for Luunja, against 2.47 over 62 for Tartu Kalev.

  • Tartu Kalev concede fewer

    Luunja concede 3.12 a game, Tartu Kalev 1.69.

  • Luunja games more often go over 2.5 goals

    85% of Luunja matches, against 69% for Tartu Kalev. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Luunja
Tartu Kalev
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1438.3
ELO
1532.3
59
ELO · Matches
62
1438.3
Current Team ELO
1532.3
1532.3
Current Opponent ELO
1438.3
-93.99
Current ELO Difference
93.99
0.37
Expected score
0.63
59
History Matches
62
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.03
46.89
Overperformance
52.48
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.20
2.30
Goals for per game
3.50
2.20
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.50
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.97
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.26
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
4.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
62
0.90
PPG
1.71
27.1%
Win rate
53.2%
8.5%
Draw rate
11.3%
64.4%
Loss rate
35.5%
88.1%
Over 1.5 rate
82.3%
84.7%
Over 2.5 rate
69.4%
67.8%
Over 3.5 rate
56.5%
3.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.31
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
28
1.28
PPG
1.57
40.6%
Win rate
50.0%
6.3%
Draw rate
7.1%
53.1%
Loss rate
42.9%
84.4%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
81.3%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
65.6%
Over 3.5 rate
64.3%
3.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.60
32
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.73
Goals for per game
2.47
67.8%
Scoring rate
88.7%
64.4%
BTTS rate
54.8%
2.31
Goals for per game
2.32
75.0%
Scoring rate
89.3%
71.9%
BTTS rate
53.6%
2.74
Goals for per game
2.67
91.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
82.6%
BTTS rate
66.7%
59
History Matches
62
1.73
Goals Mean
2.47
2.02
Goals Std
2.35
67.8%
Scored 1+ rate
88.7%
49.2%
Scored 2+ rate
51.6%
20.3%
Scored 3+ rate
38.7%
2.31
Venue Goals Mean
2.32
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
3.12
Goals against per game
1.69
94.9%
Conceding rate
66.1%
2.56
Goals against per game
2.18
96.9%
Conceding rate
64.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.88
87.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
59
History Matches
62
3.12
Conceded Mean
1.69
2.29
Conceded Std
1.86
72.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.5%
52.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.4%
2.56
Venue Conceded Mean
2.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
5.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
32.2%
Failed-to-score rate
11.3%
3.1%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
10.7%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
5.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
32.2%
Failed-to-score rate
11.3%
3.1%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
10.7%
5.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
62
0.77
Result entropy
0.86
3.44
Goal Difference Std
3.31
22.96
Stability score
13.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
61
8
Lead Matches
26
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
88.5%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.91
35
Trailing Matches
17
17.1%
Non-loss rate
11.8%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
1.13
1.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.34
1.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.05
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
74.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
8
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.13
29
Normal Rest History Matches
30
0.79
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.83
25
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
24
1.87
PPG
1.71
56.5%
Win rate
54.2%
17.4%
Draw rate
8.3%
26.1%
Loss rate
37.5%
87.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
87.0%
Over 2.5 rate
79.2%
69.6%
Over 3.5 rate
70.8%
3.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.97
23
Current Competition Matches
24
1.87
Current Competition PPG
1.71
0.74
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.79
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.79
Portability PPG Std
0.20
1.58
Portability PPG Range
0.46
38.70
Portability Score
71.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-93.99
PPG-0.81
GF-0.74
GA1.43
PPG0.16
PPG-0.29
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate20.9%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Failed-to-score rate14.3%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.74
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.63
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean1.43
Conceded Std0.42
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Conceded 2+ rate29.3%
Conceded 3+ rate25.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.18
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.13
Stability score9.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-3.23
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-18
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches18
Non-loss rate5.4%
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.43
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.16
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.05
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.59
Portability PPG Range1.12
Portability Score-32.72
Rest days2.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.04
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.62
Current Team ELO-93.99
Current Opponent ELO93.99
Current ELO Difference-188.0
Expected score-0.26
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.59
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Luunja

L
Parnu JK Vaprus U212–0Luunja1 Nov · away
Pick: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 54% · hit
W
Tallinna Kalev II2–3Luunja25 Oct · away
Pick: Tallinna Kalev II 43% · missed
W
Luunja11–0Legion19 Oct · home
Pick: Luunja 62% · hit
W
Johvi Phoenix1–3Luunja15 Oct · away
Pick: Johvi Phoenix 43% · missed
L
Luunja2–5Levadia U1931 Aug · home
Pick: Levadia U19 45% · hit

Tartu Kalev

L
Tallinna Kalev II3–2Tartu Kalev2 Nov · away
Pick: Tartu Kalev 52% · missed
L
JK Tabasalu2–1Tartu Kalev24 Oct · away
Pick: Tartu Kalev 53% · missed
W
Tartu Kalev4–0Johvi Phoenix18 Oct · home
Pick: Tartu Kalev 62% · hit
L
Narva U212–0Tartu Kalev15 Oct · away
Pick: Narva U21 50% · hit
W
Johvi Phoenix0–3Tartu Kalev29 Aug · away
Pick: Tartu Kalev 45% · hit

About this match

Luunja and Tartu Kalev meet in Esiliiga B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Luunja win 39.4%, draw 17.6%, Tartu Kalev win 42.9%. The pick is Tartu Kalev win. Over 2.5 goals: 76.8%. Both teams to score: 61.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.