ScoreProb
Cup Russia Regions Path - Final 2026

Leningradets vs Ska-khabarovsk

Leningradets Home · Elo 1,514
Penalties
1–1
Half time 1–1
Wed 4 Nov · 11:00 UTC
Ska-khabarovsk Away · Elo 1,456
Roshchino Arena, Roschino Referee: Vladislav Bykov Pick published 2 Nov, 07:01 UTC, before kickoff
Pre-match probability, unchanged Model pick: Leningradets win
Leningradets winPick
53.1%
Draw
24.5%
Ska-khabarovsk win
22.4%

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

19'
GoalIgor Shkolik · assist Kamran Aliev
Yellow cardArtem Kulishev
33'
Penalty goalAlexandrovich dmitry yakovlev
37'
Yellow cardNikita Kalugin
45+2'
46'
SubstitutionDenis Fomin off · Dmitriy Markitesov on
46'
SubstitutionEgor Mosin off · Nikita Motpan on
SubstitutionNikita Kalugin off · Roman Kudryavtsev on
46'
Yellow cardSergei Nikolaev
54'
Yellow card
55'
SubstitutionSergei Nikolaev off · Gennadiy Kiselev on
62'
SubstitutionOlivier Kenfack off · Kirill Morozov on
62'
66'
SubstitutionDmitriy Markitesov off · Konstantin Savichev on
66'
SubstitutionMatvey Uzhgin off · Sadyg Bagiev on
SubstitutionArtem Kulishev off · Dmitriy Nikitin on
71'
81'
SubstitutionEldar Bliev off · Mikheil Gorelishvili on
SubstitutionKirill Isaev off · Anatoliy Makaro on
81'
Yellow cardMaksim Bachinskiy
85'
90+4'
Yellow cardSadyg Bagiev

Lineups

Leningradets 4-3-3 · Ska-khabarovsk 3-5-2

Substitutes · Leningradets · Coach Aleksandr Shmarko

  • 16S. Starkov
  • 78G. Kiselev
  • 31I. Orlyansky
  • 4R. Kudryavtsev
  • 3E. Botaka-Yoboma
  • 52I. Petukhov
  • 21A. Makarov
  • 5Kirill morozov
  • 83I. Petrov
  • 9M. Pershin
  • 7D. Nikitin

Substitutes · Ska-khabarovsk · Coach Sergey Zhukov

  • 9Jacobo Alcalde
  • 21M. Maksimov
  • 50S. Glotov
  • 77A. Koryan
  • 6S. Bagiev
  • 7N. Moțpan
  • 8D. Markitesov
  • 24M. Gorelishvili
  • 4K. Savichev
  • 91E. Noskov
  • 1M. Shtepa

Live stats

Leningradets left, Ska-khabarovsk right

Possession 58% 42%
Shots 8 9
Shots on target 3 3
Corners 7 2
Yellow cards 3 0
Red cards 0 0

Our pre-match picks, right now

Updates with every goal. There is no in-play model: this is the pre-match pick against the live score.

Match resultPick: Leningradets win · 53.1%
Level: 1–1
Both teams to scorePick: Yes · 50.4%
Already in
Over 2.5 goalsPick: Over · 53.0%
Needs 1 more goal
The pre-match numbers never change after kickoff. That is what makes the record verifiable.

Both teams to score

Yes50.4%
No49.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.0%
Under 2.547.0%

How much we know

Leningradets history70 matches
Ska-khabarovsk history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 07:01 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Lineups publishedThis prediction does not use lineups.
  4. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this match

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Leningradets are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Leningradets are rated 58 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,514 against 1,456. On rating alone Leningradets would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Ska-khabarovsk score more

    1.06 goals a game over 70 matches for Leningradets, against 1.21 over 62 for Ska-khabarovsk.

  • Leningradets concede fewer

    Leningradets concede 1.30 a game, Ska-khabarovsk 1.45.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Leningradets matches, against 52% for Ska-khabarovsk. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Leningradets
Ska-khabarovsk
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1513.8
ELO
1456.1
70
ELO · Matches
62
1513.8
Current Team ELO
1456.1
1456.1
Current Opponent ELO
1513.8
57.77
Current ELO Difference
-57.77
0.58
Expected score
0.42
70
History Matches
62
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.03
50.56
Overperformance
47.98
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
0.70
0.50
Goals for per game
1.20
1.70
Goals against per game
2.10
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.45
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
62
1.43
PPG
1.32
38.6%
Win rate
37.1%
27.1%
Draw rate
21.0%
34.3%
Loss rate
41.9%
67.1%
Over 1.5 rate
72.6%
45.7%
Over 2.5 rate
51.6%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
29.0%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
28
1.62
PPG
1.04
44.1%
Win rate
28.6%
29.4%
Draw rate
17.9%
26.5%
Loss rate
53.6%
73.5%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
34
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.06
Goals for per game
1.21
62.9%
Scoring rate
77.4%
42.9%
BTTS rate
54.8%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.07
73.5%
Scoring rate
67.9%
55.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
70
History Matches
62
1.06
Goals Mean
1.21
1.04
Goals Std
0.99
62.9%
Scored 1+ rate
77.4%
31.4%
Scored 2+ rate
29.0%
8.6%
Scored 3+ rate
11.3%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.30
Goals against per game
1.45
67.1%
Conceding rate
74.2%
1.15
Goals against per game
1.64
70.6%
Conceding rate
78.6%
70
History Matches
62
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.45
1.31
Conceded Std
1.19
34.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.5%
17.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.6%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
37.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
37.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
62
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
1.74
Goal Difference Std
1.57
0.93
Stability score
3.53
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
61
15
Lead Matches
15
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
93.3%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.96
21
Trailing Matches
21
19.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
72.92
Rest days
71.75
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
45
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
23
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.55
0.87
Portability PPG Range
1.42
56.91
Portability Score
47.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO57.77
PPG0.11
GF-0.15
GA-0.15
PPG0.58
PPG0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Failed-to-score rate14.6%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate8.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches8
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate2.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.20
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.15
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.18
History Matches8
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score-2.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.04
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate6.7%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate4.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.55
Portability Score9.24
Rest days1.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.51
Current Team ELO57.77
Current Opponent ELO-57.77
Current ELO Difference115.5
Expected score0.16
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Leningradets

W
Leningradets2–0Luki-Energiya14 Oct · home
Pick: Leningradets 52% · hit
L
Leningradets0–1KAMAZ29 Aug · home
Pick: Leningradets 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ska-khabarovsk

W
Ska-khabarovsk3–0Enisey24 Oct · home
Pick: Enisey 44% · missed
W
Ska-khabarovsk2–0Dinamo Kirov14 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Kirov 41% · missed
W
Znamya Noginsk0–4Ska-khabarovsk9 Sep · away
Pick: Ska-khabarovsk 36% · hit
L
Ska-khabarovsk0–2Torpedo Moskva30 Aug · home
Pick: Torpedo Moskva 59% · hit
L
Nizhny Novgorod4–2Ska-khabarovsk24 Aug · away
Pick: Nizhny Novgorod 65% · hit

About this match

Leningradets and Ska-khabarovsk meet in Cup on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Roshchino Arena, Roschino. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 07:01 UTC: Leningradets win 53.1%, draw 24.5%, Ska-khabarovsk win 22.4%. The pick is Leningradets win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.0%. Both teams to score: 50.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.