ScoreProb
Cup Russia Regions Path - Final 2026

Volga Ulyanovsk vs Chertanovo Moscow

Volga Ulyanovsk Home · Elo 1,473
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chertanovo Moscow Away · Elo 1,519
Trud Stadium (Ulyanovsk) Referee: Evgeniy Sedov Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Volga Ulyanovsk win
Volga Ulyanovsk winPick
51.1%
Draw
23.3%
Chertanovo Moscow win
25.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.4%
No45.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.8%
Under 2.542.2%

How much we know

Volga Ulyanovsk history70 matches
Chertanovo Moscow history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Volga Ulyanovsk are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chertanovo Moscow are rated 47 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,519 against 1,473. On rating alone Chertanovo Moscow would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Chertanovo Moscow score more

    1.27 goals a game over 70 matches for Volga Ulyanovsk, against 1.64 over 47 for Chertanovo Moscow.

  • Defences are close

    Volga Ulyanovsk concede 1.30 a game, Chertanovo Moscow 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Volga Ulyanovsk matches, against 57% for Chertanovo Moscow. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Volga Ulyanovsk
Chertanovo Moscow
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1472.6
ELO
1519.4
70
ELO · Matches
47
1472.6
Current Team ELO
1519.4
1519.4
Current Opponent ELO
1472.6
-46.75
Current ELO Difference
46.75
0.43
Expected score
0.57
70
History Matches
47
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
48.45
Overperformance
51.56
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
2.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.70
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
47
1.31
PPG
1.40
34.3%
Win rate
38.3%
28.6%
Draw rate
25.5%
37.1%
Loss rate
36.2%
72.9%
Over 1.5 rate
85.1%
55.7%
Over 2.5 rate
57.4%
25.7%
Over 3.5 rate
38.3%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
23
1.31
PPG
1.22
37.1%
Win rate
30.4%
20.0%
Draw rate
30.4%
42.9%
Loss rate
39.1%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
91.3%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
60.9%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
43.5%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
35
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.27
Goals for per game
1.64
71.4%
Scoring rate
80.9%
57.1%
BTTS rate
57.4%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.57
74.3%
Scoring rate
73.9%
54.3%
BTTS rate
56.5%
70
History Matches
47
1.27
Goals Mean
1.64
1.11
Goals Std
1.23
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
80.9%
38.6%
Scored 2+ rate
46.8%
12.9%
Scored 3+ rate
27.7%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.57
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.30
Goals against per game
1.30
75.7%
Conceding rate
74.5%
1.34
Goals against per game
1.57
71.4%
Conceding rate
78.3%
70
History Matches
47
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.03
Conceded Std
1.15
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.2%
10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.6%
1.34
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
19.1%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
19.1%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
47
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.94
0.53
Stability score
1.33
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
47
18
Lead Matches
16
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.77
24
Trailing Matches
14
29.2%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.13
Rest days
73.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
44
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
23
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.26
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.35
1.03
Portability PPG Range
0.69
56.40
Portability Score
59.03
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-46.75
PPG-0.09
GF-0.37
GA0.00
PPG0.10
PPG-0.20
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches23
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate9.4%
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches23
Goals Mean-0.37
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches23
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std-0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate3.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches23
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score-0.80
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.27
Eligible Matches23
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate20.1%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate7.7%
Trailing Win Rate1.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches23
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.34
Portability Score-2.63
Rest days1.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches21
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Current Team ELO-46.75
Current Opponent ELO46.75
Current ELO Difference-93.51
Expected score-0.13
History Matches23
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Volga Ulyanovsk

W
Veles1–2Volga Ulyanovsk4 Oct · away
Pick: Veles 50% · missed
D
Nizhny Novgorod2–2Volga Ulyanovsk30 Aug · away
Pick: Nizhny Novgorod 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Chertanovo Moscow

D
Torpedo Vladimir0–0Chertanovo Moscow1 Nov · away
Pick: Torpedo Vladimir 38% · missed
W
Dinamo Vologda0–1Chertanovo Moscow18 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Vologda 39% · missed
W
Chertanovo Moscow2–1Tekstilshchik14 Oct · home
Pick: Tekstilshchik 49% · missed
L
Yenisey II2–1Chertanovo Moscow4 Oct · away
Pick: Chertanovo Moscow 60% · missed
D
Spartak Moscow 21–1Chertanovo Moscow30 Aug · away
Pick: Chertanovo Moscow 46% · missed

About this match

Volga Ulyanovsk and Chertanovo Moscow meet in Cup on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Trud Stadium (Ulyanovsk). ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Volga Ulyanovsk win 51.1%, draw 23.3%, Chertanovo Moscow win 25.6%. The pick is Volga Ulyanovsk win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.8%. Both teams to score: 54.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.