ScoreProb
UEFA Champions League World Round 4 2026

Lens vs Como

Lens Home · Elo 1,651
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Como Away · Elo 1,649
Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens Referee: Rohit Saggi Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lens win
Lens winPick
41.0%
Draw
23.2%
Como win
35.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.0%
No43.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.4%
Under 2.540.6%

How much we know

Lens history66 matches
Como history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Lens are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,651 against 1,649. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Lens score more

    1.95 goals a game over 66 matches for Lens, against 1.66 over 68 for Como.

  • Como concede fewer

    Lens concede 1.15 a game, Como 0.96.

  • Lens games more often go over 2.5 goals

    62% of Lens matches, against 49% for Como. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lens
Como
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1651.1
ELO
1648.8
66
ELO · Matches
68
1651.1
Current Team ELO
1648.8
1648.8
Current Opponent ELO
1651.1
2.25
Current ELO Difference
-2.25
0.50
Expected score
0.50
66
History Matches
68
0.12
Residual Mean
0.10
59.53
Overperformance
57.98
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.90
2.30
Goals for per game
1.50
1.10
Goals against per game
0.80
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.68
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
68
2.02
PPG
1.82
63.6%
Win rate
51.5%
10.6%
Draw rate
27.9%
25.8%
Loss rate
20.6%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
62.1%
Over 2.5 rate
48.5%
37.9%
Over 3.5 rate
27.9%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
36
2.24
PPG
1.69
73.7%
Win rate
47.2%
2.6%
Draw rate
27.8%
23.7%
Loss rate
25.0%
76.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
60.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
42.1%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
38
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.95
Goals for per game
1.66
80.3%
Scoring rate
79.4%
51.5%
BTTS rate
51.5%
2.08
Goals for per game
1.56
81.6%
Scoring rate
75.0%
47.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
66
History Matches
68
1.95
Goals Mean
1.66
1.46
Goals Std
1.36
80.3%
Scored 1+ rate
79.4%
57.6%
Scored 2+ rate
45.6%
36.4%
Scored 3+ rate
29.4%
2.08
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.15
Goals against per game
0.96
69.7%
Conceding rate
60.3%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.06
65.8%
Conceding rate
63.9%
66
History Matches
68
1.15
Conceded Mean
0.96
1.03
Conceded Std
1.08
31.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.1%
10.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.4%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
68
0.80
Result entropy
0.93
1.96
Goal Difference Std
1.82
20.36
Stability score
6.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
68
26
Lead Matches
31
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
71.0%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.76
16
Trailing Matches
9
25.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.20
Rest days
74.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
37
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.83
25
Long Rest History Matches
24
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.21
1.33
Portability PPG Range
0.56
51.12
Portability Score
70.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO2.25
PPG0.19
GF0.29
GA0.20
PPG0.54
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.29
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate0.9%
Scored 2+ rate12.0%
Scored 3+ rate7.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.47
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.20
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.15
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score13.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.84
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate21.3%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.27
Portability PPG Range0.77
Portability Score-19.52
Rest days0.05
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.67
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.15
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO2.25
Current Opponent ELO-2.25
Current ELO Difference4.50
Expected score0.01
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lens

L
Lille1–0Lens30 Oct · away
Pick: Lille 42% · hit
W
Lens2–1Paris FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Lens 67% · hit
L
Club Brugge KV3–0Lens21 Oct · away
Pick: Club Brugge KV 65% · hit
W
Estac Troyes1–3Lens17 Oct · away
Pick: Lens 45% · hit
L
Lens0–2Sporting CP13 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting CP 49% · hit

Como

W
Como1–0Venezia1 Nov · home
Pick: Como 53% · hit
W
Torino1–3Como27 Oct · away
Pick: Como 40% · hit
W
Como2–0Sassuolo24 Oct · home
Pick: Como 59% · hit
W
Como4–1Manchester United21 Oct · home
Pick: Como 38% · hit
W
Fiorentina1–3Como18 Oct · away
Pick: Como 38% · hit

About this match

Lens and Como meet in UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Lens win 41.0%, draw 23.2%, Como win 35.9%. The pick is Lens win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.4%. Both teams to score: 57.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.